NFL Week 6 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 6

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

MODEL THIS WEEK 4-9 straight up 4-8-1 ATS 2-1 value picks 1-1 best bets 13 of 14 played
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Thursday, Oct 15

Thu
PROJ FINAL
SEA logo SEA 70%
19 14
DEN logo DEN 30%
14 17
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold220 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson Emanuel Wilson49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.8 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET SEA -3 O/U 41 vs Model SEA -4.9
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 4.9
✗ DEN won by 3 (model: SEA by 4.9) SEA -3 LOSS Lean Under: 31 pts, under
The sim sides with Seahawks: a 4.9-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (19-14).
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Red Murdock, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Ben Powers (Broncos) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 57% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 5.0 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 18

Sun
PROJ FINAL
HST logo HST 52%
19 34
JAX logo JAX 48%
20 31
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud256 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET JAX -2.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model JAX -1.0
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 1.0
✗ HST won by 3 (model: JAX by 1.0) HST +2.5 WIN Lean Under: 65 pts, over
Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 48% of the time by an average of 1.0 (20-19).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Cole Van Lanen (Jaguars) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 8.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CHI logo CHI 26%
19 31
ATL logo ATL 74%
27 23
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams243 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson114 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Drake London Drake London7.1 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CHI -3.5 O/U 49 vs Model ATL -7.6
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 7.6
✗ CHI won by 8 (model: ATL by 7.6) BEST BET ATL +3.5 LOSS Lean Under: 54 pts, over
The sim sides with Falcons: a 7.6-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (27-19).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Drake London (Falcons) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 9.8/12.1, 81 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
BLT logo BLT 74%
20 10
CLV logo CLV 26%
12 13
PASS Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson193 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Denzel Boston Denzel Boston4.7 rec, 72 yds, 0.1 TD
MARKET BLT -4.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model BLT -7.8
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 7.8
✗ CLV won by 3 (model: BLT by 7.8) BLT -4.5 LOSS Lean Under: 23 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 74% of them, by 7.8 on average (20-12).
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Cam Jurgens (Ravens) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 55% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
TEN logo TEN 18%
15 26
IND logo IND 82%
25 20
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones249 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Carnell Tate Carnell Tate5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET IND -7 O/U 44 vs Model IND -9.9
Sim Prediction: Colts by 9.9
✗ TEN won by 6 (model: IND by 9.9) IND -7 LOSS Lean Under: 46 pts, over
Colts are the pick here, favoured by 9.9 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 25-15).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NYJ logo NYJ 38%
16 19
NE logo NE 62%
20 26
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye220 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall59 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs Romeo Doubs4.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.1 TD
MARKET NE -7 O/U 43.5 vs Model NE -3.9
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 3.9
✓ NE won by 7 (model: NE by 3.9) NYJ +7 PUSH Lean Under: 45 pts, over
The sim sides with Patriots: a 3.9-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (20-16).
Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 17 yds on just 39% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Ben Brown (Patriots) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 58% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 4.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NO logo NO 46%
20 34
NYG logo NYG 54%
22 27
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough288 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave8.8 rec, 127 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET NO -0.5 O/U 45 vs Model NYG -2.0
Sim Prediction: Giants by 2.0
✗ NO won by 7 (model: NYG by 2.0) NYG +0.5 LOSS Lean Under: 61 pts, over
The sim sides with Giants: a 2.0-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (22-20).
Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Asim Richards (Saints) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 58% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 9.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Martin Emerson Jr., holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CAR logo CAR 54%
20 25
PHI logo PHI 46%
19 14
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young256 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan6.3 rec, 86 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET PHI -1 O/U 42 vs Model CAR -1.2
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 1.2
✓ CAR won by 11 (model: CAR by 1.2) CAR +1 WIN Lean Under: 39 pts, under
The sim sides with Panthers: a 1.2-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (20-19).
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Jeremiah Trotter Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
PIT logo PIT 80%
24 26
TB logo TB 20%
14 19
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers256 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf6.3 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET PIT -2.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model PIT -9.9
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 9.9
✓ PIT won by 7 (model: PIT by 9.9) VALUE PIT -2.5 WIN Lean Under: 45 pts, over
The model leans Steelers by 9.9, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 24-14).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
ARZ logo ARZ 2%
13 18
LA logo LA 98%
31 16
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams78 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 104 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LA -13.5 O/U 52 vs Model LA -17.2
Sim Prediction: Rams by 17.2
✗ ARZ won by 2 (model: LA by 17.2) LA -13.5 LOSS Lean Under: 34 pts, under
The model leans Rams by 17.2, winning 98% of 50 sims (projected 31-13).
Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 55 yds on just 38% open, 1.7 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.1 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
LAC logo LAC 38%
15 6
KC logo KC 62%
19 22
PASS Justin Herbert Justin Herbert236 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Ladd McConkey Ladd McConkey4.9 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET KC -8 O/U 42.5 vs Model KC -3.5
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 3.5
✓ KC won by 16 (model: KC by 3.5) LAC +8 LOSS Lean Under: 28 pts, under
The sim sides with Chiefs: a 3.5-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (19-15).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.3 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
BUF logo BUF 44%
25 33
LV logo LV 56%
28 30
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins298 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook67 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker6.3 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET BUF -6 O/U 53 vs Model LV -3.0
Sim Prediction: Raiders by 3.0
✗ BUF won by 3 (model: LV by 3.0) BEST BET LV +6 WIN
The model leans Raiders by 3.0, winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 28-25).
James Cook (Bills) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: James Cook, 5.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Deone Walker (Bills) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 59% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 1.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
DAL logo DAL 50%
25 0
GB logo GB 50%
24 17
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love321 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.9 rec, 105 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET GB -1 O/U 52.5 vs Model DAL -1.3
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 1.3
✗ GB won by 17 (model: DAL by 1.3) DAL +1 LOSS Lean Under: 17 pts, under
Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 1.3 and winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 25-24).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Ameer Speed (Cowboys) - winner: Ameer Speed, holding him to 1.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Lukas Van Ness (Packers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Lukas Van Ness, winning 58% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 19

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 34%
15
SF logo SF 66%
20
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy233 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey58 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans5.1 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET SF -7.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model SF -5.2
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 5.2
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, 49ers come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 5.2 (20-15).
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 59% of routes for 6.7/8.4, 66 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →