NFL Week 11 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

2026 Season · Week 11

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

Thursday, Nov 19

Thu 8:15pm

PROJ

IND 28%

HST 72%

PASS

C.J. Stroud293 pass yds, 1.9 TD

RUSH

Jonathan Taylor55 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Nico Collins6.0 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Texans by 7.3

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 7.3 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 26-18).

Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Ed Ingram (Texans) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 57% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.

Nico Collins (Texans) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 59% of routes for 8.2/9.8, 80 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.

Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 22

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

MIA 36%

BUF 64%

PASS

Malik Willis238 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

James Cook81 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

DJ Moore5.5 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Bills by 6.0

Run it 50 times and Bills win 64% of them, by 6.0 on average (25-19).

James Cook (Bills) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: James Cook, 6.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.

Joshua Uche (Dolphins) vs Spencer Brown (Bills) - winner: Joshua Uche, winning 56% of reps for 2.8 sacks and 8.8 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

BLT 58%

CAR 42%

PASS

Bryce Young259 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

Derrick Henry73 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Tetairoa McMillan6.0 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Ravens by 4.4

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 58% of them, by 4.4 on average (23-18).

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - met in the backfield.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

NO 40%

CHI 60%

PASS

Tyler Shough274 pass yds, 1.5 TD

RUSH

D'Andre Swift58 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Chris Olave7.9 rec, 112 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Bears by 6.1

The model leans Bears by 6.1, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 26-19).

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: Devin Bush, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.

Chris Olave (Saints) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 59% of routes for 8.6/12.3, 84 yds a game - a matchup to attack.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

TEN 10%

DAL 90%

PASS

Dak Prescott282 pass yds, 2.2 TD

RUSH

Javonte Williams55 rush yds, 0.6 TD

REC

CeeDee Lamb5.5 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 13.4

The model leans Cowboys by 13.4, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 27-14).

Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Malik Hooker (Cowboys) - winner: Malik Hooker, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - running into a wall.

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 62% of routes for 8.1/9.6, 76 yds a game - open at will.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

TB 10%

DET 90%

PASS

Jared Goff259 pass yds, 2.3 TD

RUSH

Jahmyr Gibbs74 rush yds, 0.9 TD

REC

Amon-Ra St. Brown5.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Lions by 15.5

The sim sides with Lions: a 15.5-point edge and a 90% win rate over 50 runs (32-16).

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

ARZ 18%

KC 82%

PASS

Jacoby Brissett311 pass yds, 1.9 TD

RUSH

Kenneth Walker III149 rush yds, 2.0 TD

REC

Michael Wilson8.6 rec, 117 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 10.3

Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 10.3 (30-19).

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 11.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.

Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

JAX 80%

NYG 20%

PASS

Trevor Lawrence258 pass yds, 1.6 TD

RUSH

Bhayshul Tuten57 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Parker Washington5.0 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD

Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 9.6

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 9.6 and winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 22-13).

Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.

Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Cole Van Lanen (Jaguars) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 57% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:05pm

PROJ

NYJ 62%

LAC 38%

PASS

Geno Smith210 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Breece Hall52 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Garrett Wilson5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD

Sim Prediction: Jets by 5.8

Run it 50 times and Jets win 62% of them, by 5.8 on average (17-11).

Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.

Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 56% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

LV 46%

DEN 54%

PASS

Bo Nix254 pass yds, 1.4 TD

RUSH

J.K. Dobbins52 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Jaylen Waddle7.1 rec, 98 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Broncos by 2.8

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 54% of them, by 2.8 on average (22-20).

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Red Murdock, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - nowhere to run.

Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 60% of routes for 8.6/12.3, 73 yds a game - a matchup to attack.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

PIT 68%

PHI 32%

PASS

Aaron Rodgers234 pass yds, 1.0 TD

RUSH

Jaylen Warren111 rush yds, 1.2 TD

REC

D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD

Sim Prediction: Steelers by 5.4

Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 5.4 (22-17).

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 8.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.

D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 33 yds on just 40% open, 1.0 INT a game, - blanket coverage.

Full breakdown →

Sun 8:20pm

PROJ

MIN 48%

SF 52%

PASS

Brock Purdy253 pass yds, 1.5 TD

RUSH

Christian McCaffrey56 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Mike Evans5.0 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD

Sim Prediction: Vikings by 1.8

Run it 50 times and Vikings win 48% of them, by 1.8 on average (20-18).

The Vikings get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), Dallas Turner (2.8 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) leading the way.

The Vikings' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.4 sacks and 25.5 pressures a game — Nick Bosa (3.1 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) out front.

Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 23

Mon 8:15pm

PROJ

CIN 78%

WAS 22%

PASS

Joe Burrow294 pass yds, 2.0 TD

RUSH

Jacory Croskey-Merritt58 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Bengals by 9.1

Run it 50 times and Bengals win 78% of them, by 9.1 on average (25-16).

Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Lucas Patrick (Commanders) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 55% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 5.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.

Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - running into a wall.

Full breakdown →