New Orleans won in New York and is 2-4, and our model holds the Saints at six wins with the defense still projected to allow the most points in football
Updated
New Orleans lost 23-13 at home to Minnesota, then went to New York and beat the Giants 34-27, and the Saints are 2-4. When we ran the rest of the season they came out at 6-11 with a two percent playoff chance, which is a fraction below where they sat two weeks ago and two wins below the eight the summer sim projected. The win in New York was worth about what the Vikings loss cost, and the projection has not moved.
The offense has been productive and the model has trimmed it slightly. Tyler Shough is 153 of 235 for 1,443 yards with twelve touchdowns and five interceptions, a 90 rating, and has been sacked 13 times. He projects for 4,561 yards and 30 touchdowns, down from 5,106 and 32 as the model has leaned harder on this season's rate rather than last season's volume. Chris Olave has 43 catches for 580 yards and projects for 126 catches and 1,738 yards, still the highest receiving projection in the league but down from 1,926. Juwan Johnson projects for 68 catches and seven touchdowns. Noah Fant for 35 catches and five. Alvin Kamara projects for 416 rushing yards and Kendre Miller for 249, with Travis Etienne Jr. still on injured reserve. The unit projects for 372 points, 17th in the league.
The defense is the reason the Saints are 2-4 and the model has it last in football. New Orleans projects to allow 453 points, 32nd in the league, up from 442, and has given up 178 in six games, tied with Arizona for the most in the league. The pass rush has been the one bright spot. Chase Young has eight sacks in six games, second in the league, and his projection has climbed from five and a half to over eight. Carl Granderson has gone from seven projected sacks to ten and a half. Nathan Shepherd projects for over seven. The team projects for 42 sacks, twelfth. The back end is the problem. Martin Emerson Jr.'s interception projection has gone from near zero to nearly three, which is the one line moving the right way, but Kaden Elliss' tackle projection has dropped from 104 to 96 and his sack line has halved. The Saints project for ten interceptions, 23rd.
The division has a new favorite and the Saints are third. Carolina is 3-2 and projects for ten and a half wins with six percent title odds. Atlanta is 2-4 and projects for nine, with the head-to-head over New Orleans banked after that 45-24 game. Tampa Bay is 1-5 and projects for four. When we ran the rest of the season the Saints finished third in the NFC South in most simulated years, and the two percent playoff chance is almost entirely a wild card number.
The next month is three games and a bye. Pittsburgh at home at 42 percent, a bye in Week 8, Cleveland at home at 32, and Carolina at home at 36. When we ran that stretch New Orleans went 1-2 more often than anything else, and the model has the Saints as an underdog in all three. A 3-6 record entering the second week of November would put six wins on schedule.
The fortnight in detail: a 23-13 home loss to Minnesota in which the Saints offense scored 13 against the best scoring defense in football, and a 34-27 win in New York in which the offense scored 34 and the defense gave up 27 to a Giants offense that had been held to twelve and 27 in two of its previous four games. Those two games are the Saints' season: an offense that can score 34 on a bad defense and 13 on a good one, and a defense that gives up 27 to anyone. The model's projection did not move, which is unusual for a team that split a fortnight, because the Vikings loss was expected and the Giants win was close to a coin flip. The player lines moved more than the team line. Shough's yardage projection fell 545 and his touchdown projection fell two as the model leaned on his 2026 rate rather than his 2025 volume, and Olave's yardage projection fell 188 for the same reason, though he is still the league leader. Granderson's sack projection rose three and a half and Young's rose three, which is the pass rush being the one thing on the defense the model believes in. What moves the number from here is Pittsburgh at home on Sunday at 42 percent, the closest thing to a winnable game in the next month. The Saints have beaten Baltimore and the Giants on the road this season. They have not beaten anyone at home.
The matchup record is a team that has been close to its projections. We gave New Orleans 18 percent in Detroit, 30 in Baltimore, 48 against Las Vegas, 34 against Atlanta, 38 against Minnesota and 46 in New York. Two wins from about two expected is right on it, and the Baltimore and Giants wins came in games the model had as underdog spots. The market opened New Orleans at six and a half wins. Our model sat a win and a half over it in July and sits a half-win under it now. The lean is a defense that has given up 178 points in six games and projects to give up more than anyone in football. Olave and Young are the consolation prizes, and both are on pace for the best seasons of their careers.
