New Orleans is handing the keys to a young quarterback, and our model likes the weapons around him
Updated
The Saints are turning a page, and our model read the new chapter more favorably than most expected. When we ran the simulations, New Orleans landed at eight wins, a hair above the market, which is a surprising place for a team many wrote off as a full rebuild. The reason is a receiving corps our projection genuinely likes and a young quarterback the model believes can get the ball to them. This is not a playoff roster, but it is a more competent one than the outside world is giving it credit for.
The quarterback projection is the boldest part, and it deserves a caveat up front. Our model has Tyler Shough throwing for 4,493 yards and 25 touchdowns with a passer rating above 92, an enormous leap from the 2,384 yards and 10 scores he managed in limited 2025 work. That is an aggressive number for a young passer with a thin track record, and it is the single biggest reason to be skeptical of the projection. The simulations see a talented arm surrounded by real weapons and expect the production to follow. Time will tell if that faith is earned.
The weapons are what make the bet defensible. Chris Olave is the centerpiece, and our model hands him a monster line of 106 catches for over 1,400 yards, the kind of number-one target who elevates whoever is throwing him the ball. Rookie Jordyn Tyson projects as an immediate contributor at 69 catches and 5 scores, Juwan Johnson is a red-zone weapon at tight end with 6 touchdowns in our projection, and Alvin Kamara still has enough left to matter in the passing game. That is a genuinely good group of pass-catchers for a young quarterback to grow into.
The offense grades better than its reputation. Our roster numbers slot the unit 17th, right in the middle of the league, which is a testament to the receiving talent more than the quarterback's resume. When we ran the season, New Orleans moved the ball more effectively than a rebuilding team is supposed to, largely because Olave is the kind of separator who makes life easy on everyone around him. The passing game is the strength, and it is a real one.
The defense is the drag on the projection. Our grade slots the unit 23rd, below average, an aging group leaning on veterans past their primes. Demario Davis remains a high-grade linebacker and the emotional core, Chase Young and Carl Granderson provide some pass rush, and Justin Reid steadies the back end, but the unit as a whole does not have the horses to consistently get stops. When we ran the simulations, New Orleans too often had to win shootouts because the defense could not close the door, which caps how high this team can climb.
Landing right at the market is the honest read here, and it is why we publish without a flag. Our number sits a fraction above Vegas, well within the range of noise, and it is grounded in grades that put both units near the middle. This is not a bold disagreement. It is the model and the market arriving at roughly the same place from slightly different directions, and when that happens we take our number and trust it.
The division keeps the floor up. New Orleans gets six games against Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay, and even a flawed team can bank wins in the softest division in the conference. When we ran the season, the Saints held their own in the NFC South and struggled more against the tougher non-division slate, which is exactly what you would expect from a young team with a good passing game and a leaky defense. The schedule is a friend to this projection.
The path past our number runs entirely through Shough. If the young quarterback is as ready as our aggressive projection expects, if the 4,493 yards are real and not a simulation getting ahead of itself, New Orleans has enough at receiver to push toward nine or ten wins and sneak into the wild-card race. A young passer with Olave and a good supporting cast is a combination that can outrun expectations in a hurry. That is the upside, and it is genuine.
The path below it is the defense giving out. If the aging unit cannot get stops and Shough's development is more gradual than our projection assumes, the Saints slide toward six wins and the rebuild narrative reasserts itself. That is the downside, and it is why we do not push our number higher than the market despite the offensive optimism. The defense is the anchor that keeps this projection grounded at eight.
So the read on New Orleans is a young, pass-first team that grades better than its reputation and lands right where the market has it. When we ran the simulations, the Saints were competitive on the strength of Olave and a promising quarterback, and let down by a defense that could not match the offense's ambition. Eight wins is a team on the way up rather than one that has arrived, and in a soft division, on the way up is enough to stay relevant.
Watch Shough and Olave grow together. If the connection clicks early, this is a more dangerous team than the rebuild label suggests, and our over-the-market number will look prescient. If the young quarterback needs a year and the defense keeps leaking, eight wins will feel generous. The Saints are a bet on youth and talent at the skill positions, and our model was just optimistic enough to take it.
