New Orleans gave up 45 at home to Atlanta, and our model cut the Saints to six wins with the playoff odds down to four percent
Updated
New Orleans gave up 45 points and five rushing touchdowns at home to Atlanta on Monday night, its third loss in four games, and the model's reaction was the sharpest downgrade of the week. When we ran the rest of the season the Saints came out at 6-11 with a four percent playoff chance, down from 7.6 wins and 20 percent after Week 3 and two full wins below the eight the summer sim projected. A win and a half in a week is a large move, and most of it came from one side of the ball. The defense that allowed 45 is now projected to allow the second-most points in the league.
The offense has been productive and the numbers are the strangest on the sheet. Tyler Shough is 121 of 180 for 1,198 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions, a 96 rating through four games, and has been sacked twelve times. Our model projects him for 5,106 passing yards and 32 touchdowns, which would be the second-highest yardage total in the league, because it has the Saints throwing more than anyone. Chris Olave has 35 catches for 491 yards and projects for 136 catches and 1,926 yards, the highest receiving projection in football by a wide margin. Juwan Johnson has three touchdowns on 21 catches and projects for 73 and eight. Devaughn Vele has 226 yards and projects for 71 catches. The running game is the problem. Travis Etienne Jr. is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Alvin Kamara scored twice on Monday, his first touchdowns in over a year, and his projection has doubled to 373 yards. The unit projects for 373 points, 15th in the league, and the eighth-most yards.
The defense is the reason the projection fell. New Orleans projects to allow 442 points, 31st in the league, up from 392 and 23rd a week ago, and the third-most yards. The Falcons ran for 205 yards and five touchdowns, and they did it against a unit missing Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings. Chase Young has five sacks in four games, the one bright line on the defense. Nathan Shepherd projects for nearly eight sacks, Granderson for seven, and Cameron Jordan for six, and the team projects for 37.5 sacks, 22nd. The takeaways are the weakness. The Saints project for eight interceptions, 31st in the league, with Julian Blackmon at under two leading the secondary. Elliss projects for 104 tackles when he returns. The unit has given up 128 points in four games, the most in the league, and the model has stopped treating the Baltimore win as the baseline.
The division has a clear favorite and the Saints are not in the conversation. Atlanta is 2-2 and projects for eleven wins with the head-to-head already won. Carolina is 2-2 and projects for nine. Tampa Bay is 0-4 and projects for three. When we ran the rest of the season New Orleans finished third in the NFC South in most simulated years, ahead of only the Buccaneers, and the four percent playoff chance is almost entirely a wild card number.
The next month is manageable on paper and the model does not expect it to be on the field. Minnesota at home at 38 percent, a trip to the Giants at 44, Pittsburgh at home at 26, a bye in Week 8, and Cleveland at home at 60. When we ran that stretch the Saints went 1-3 more often than anything else, and the Cleveland game is the only one the model treats as a win. A 2-6 record entering November would put six wins on schedule, and the second half of the schedule is not softer.
The player lines are an offense that keeps grading well and a defense that fell off a cliff. Shough's projection climbed from 4,988 yards to 5,106 while his touchdown line held at 32 and his interception projection dropped from twelve to eleven. Olave's rose from 132 catches to 136 and from 1,841 yards to 1,926. Vele's climbed from 65 catches to 71. Johnson's held at 73 catches with his touchdown line down from nine to eight. Lance's dropped from 43 catches to 38. Kamara's rushing projection went from 194 yards to 373 and his touchdown line from one to four, the biggest move on the roster, with Etienne on injured reserve. Miller's climbed from 148 yards to 223. On defense, Shepherd's sack projection slipped from 8.2 to 7.8, Granderson's from 7.7 to 7.2, and Jordan's from 6.4 to 6.2. Blackmon's interception line dropped from two to 1.8 and his tackle projection from 98 to 95. Elliss' interception projection fell from 1.6 to under one with his tackle line down from 107 to 104. The number to watch is the points allowed. New Orleans projects for 442, up 50 in a week, and a single Monday night did that. The model does not usually move that far on one game. It did because the game was that bad.
The matchup record is a team that has won one game it was not supposed to win and lost three it was not supposed to win either. We gave New Orleans 18 percent in Detroit and the Saints lost by one. We gave them 30 in Baltimore and they won by seven. We gave them 48 against Las Vegas and they lost by eight. We gave them 34 against Atlanta and they lost by 21. One win from about one and a third expected is close to even, and the Raiders game is the coin flip that went the other way. The market opened New Orleans at six and a half wins. Our model sat a win and a half over it in July and sits a half-win under it now. The lean has reversed on the defense, which has allowed 128 points in a month, and the offense has not been able to outscore it. Six wins is the number. Olave at 1,926 yards would be the consolation.
