The Chargers are 0-4 with Herbert at six interceptions, and our model has Los Angeles at six wins with the playoffs effectively gone
Updated
The Chargers lost 30-23 in Seattle and are 0-4, with losses to Arizona, Las Vegas, Buffalo and the Seahawks by twelve, twelve, eight and seven. Four weeks ago our model had Los Angeles as an 80 percent favorite in each of its first two games. It is now the largest underperformer in the league, and the projection has followed. When we ran the rest of the season the Chargers came out at 6-11 with a four and a half percent playoff chance, down from 6.3 wins after Week 3 and three full wins below the nine we projected in July. The model gave up on the Chargers' season faster than it has given up on anyone's.
The quarterback has been the problem and the numbers are blunt about it. Justin Herbert is 71 of 119 for 816 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions, a 71 rating through four games, and has been sacked twelve times. Our model projects him for 3,778 yards, 19 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, which would be the worst season of his career by every measure. Ladd McConkey aggravated the foot injury that has bothered him since September and is day to day, and his projection has slipped from 91 catches to 77. Tre Harris has 13 catches for 209 yards and his projection has climbed from 48 catches to 66 as the targets have shifted. Quentin Johnston projects for 50. Oronde Gadsden II has become a factor at tight end and projects for 50 catches. Omarion Hampton has 238 rushing yards and three touchdowns and projects for 872. The unit projects for 300 points, 27th in the league.
The defense is not the reason the Chargers are 0-4, and the model has it as a middle-of-the-league unit. Los Angeles projects to allow 357 points, 17th in the league, and the eleventh-fewest yards. The pass rush is the strength. Tuli Tuipulotu projects for nearly 13 sacks and an interception. Khalil Mack has three sacks and projects for 11.5. Akheem Mesidor has three sacks of his own. The team projects for 45 sacks, tenth in football, and over 13 interceptions, seventh. Tony Jefferson projects for nearly four picks and 111 tackles. Genesis Smith has two interceptions already. Derwin James Jr. projects for 92 stops. The unit held Arizona to 26 and the Raiders to 26, and in a season where the offense was functioning that would have been enough to win both.
The division is gone and the Chargers are last in it. Kansas City is 4-0 and projects for twelve wins. Las Vegas is 3-1 and projects for nine with the head-to-head already won. Denver is 2-2 and projects for nine. When we ran the rest of the season Los Angeles finished last in the AFC West in the large majority of simulated years, which is a position the model had the Chargers nowhere near in July, when it projected them for nine wins and a 44 percent playoff chance.
The next month is where the model's six wins will have to start arriving. Denver at home at 50 percent, a trip to Kansas City at 36, a bye in Week 7, a trip to the Rams at twelve, and Houston at home at 38. When we ran that stretch the Chargers went 1-3 more often than anything else, and the Denver game is the only one the model treats as a coin flip. A 1-7 record entering November is the most likely path, and it would leave the six-win projection needing a 5-4 finish.
The player lines are a passing game being rerun around a hurt receiver and a struggling quarterback. Herbert's projection dropped from 3,830 yards to 3,778 and his interception line rose from 17 to 18, with his rating projection down from 83.8 to 81.9. McConkey's projection fell from 91 catches to 77 and from 1,204 yards to 1,031. Harris' climbed from 48 catches to 66 and from 610 yards to 860, the biggest move on the roster. Johnston's dropped from 60 catches to 50. Gadsden's rose from 38 catches to 50. Hampton's rushing projection climbed from 828 to 872. Vidal's held at 305. On defense, Tuipulotu's sack projection slipped from 13 to 12.7 while his interception line jumped from under one to over one. Mack's rose from 10.9 to 11.5. Jefferson's interception projection fell from 4.9 to 3.9 and his tackle line from 117 to 111. Derwin James' tackle projection dropped from 99 to 92. The number to watch is Herbert's interceptions. Six in four games is a pace for 25, and the model's 18 already assumes he gets better. If he does not, six wins is the ceiling.
The matchup record is the largest underperformance in the league. We gave the Chargers 80 percent against Arizona and they lost by twelve. We gave them 80 against Las Vegas and they lost by twelve. We gave them 46 in Buffalo and they lost by eight. We gave them 40 in Seattle and they lost by seven. Zero wins from about two and a half expected is a gap no other winless team shares, because Houston, Miami and Tennessee were never favored the way Los Angeles was. The market opened the Chargers at nine and a half wins. Our model sat a half-win under it in July and sits three and a half under it now. The lean is about a quarterback throwing more interceptions than touchdowns behind a line that has given up twelve sacks, and a model that has watched four weeks of it and stopped waiting.
