Denver has won three of four and is 4-2, and our model holds the Broncos at nine wins because the offense has scored 114 points
Updated
Denver won 23-17 in Los Angeles against the Chargers and 17-14 at home against Seattle, is 4-2, and is second in the AFC West behind the unbeaten Chiefs. When we ran the rest of the season the Broncos came out at 9-8 with a 41 percent playoff chance, up a fraction from 8.7 wins and 38.5 percent two weeks ago and nearly three wins below the 11.7 the summer sim projected. A 4-2 team projected for nine wins is the model telling you it has watched Denver win four games by a combined 20 points with an offense that has scored 114 in six games, and it does not expect the margins to hold against a schedule that gets harder.
The offense is the reason the model is cautious and the numbers have gotten worse. Bo Nix is 114 of 189 for 1,049 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions, a 79 rating, and projects for 3,439 yards and 17 touchdowns, down from 3,919 and 21 two weeks ago. His rushing projection has been cut from 209 yards to 58, which is the model noticing he has stopped running. Jaylen Waddle projects for 98 catches and 1,152 yards, down from 109 and 1,402. Courtland Sutton for 49 catches. Troy Franklin has climbed from ten catches to 29. J.K. Dobbins projects for 807 rushing yards and RJ Harvey for 510 plus 51 catches and six touchdowns, which is the one line on the offense that has climbed. The unit projects for 313 points, 27th in the league, down from 332 and 22nd.
The defense is the reason the Broncos are 4-2 and the model has it as a top-twelve unit with an elite pass rush. Denver projects to allow 340 points, twelfth in the league, and has given up 125 in six games. Zach Allen has six sacks and projects for over ten. Nik Bonitto projects for eleven, up from under ten. Jonah Elliss for eight. The team projects for 48.5 sacks, fourth in football, up from 14th two weeks ago, which is the largest pass rush upgrade of any team in this run. The takeaways are elite too. Denver projects for over 16 interceptions, third in the league, with Brandon Jones at four, up from three, and Talanoa Hufanga at nearly four. The unit held Seattle to 14 and the Chargers to 17.
The division is Kansas City's and Denver is second in it by the model's reckoning. The Chiefs are 5-0 and project for 13 wins with the head-to-head banked. Las Vegas is 3-3 and projects for eight. The Chargers are 0-6 and project for three. When we ran the rest of the season the Broncos finished second in the AFC West in most simulated years and won it in very few, and the 41 percent playoff chance is a wild card number.
The next month is three games and a bye, and the model has Denver as an underdog in all three. A trip to Arizona at 42 percent, Kansas City at home at 22, a trip to Carolina at 16, and a bye in Week 10. When we ran that stretch the Broncos went 1-2 more often than 0-3, and the Arizona game is the closest to even. A 5-4 record entering the bye would keep nine wins on schedule.
The fortnight in detail: a 23-17 win in Los Angeles over the Chargers in which the defense held Herbert's offense to 17, and a 17-14 home win over Seattle in which the Broncos scored 17 and the defense did the rest. Both were games the model had close to even or had Denver as the underdog, and both were won by the defense. That is the pattern, and the model has priced it: the sack projection went from 14th in the league to fourth in one run, the interception projection from third to third, and the points-allowed projection from 349 to 340. Bonitto's sack projection rose nearly one and a half, Allen's rose, Jones' interception projection rose one. The offense went the other way. Nix's touchdown projection fell four and his rating projection fell three, Waddle's yardage projection fell 250, and the points-for projection fell from 332 to 313, 27th in the league. A team with the fourth-best pass rush and the 27th-best offense is a nine-win team, and the model has said so for a month. What moves the number from here is Arizona on the road, the one game in the next three the model treats as close to even. Kansas City at home at 22 percent and Carolina on the road at 16 are both games the model expects Denver to lose, and a 5-4 record entering the bye would keep nine wins on schedule.
The matchup record is a team that has beaten the model's favorites and lost to them, which is the profile of a team with a good defense and a bad offense. We gave Denver 66 percent in Kansas City and the Broncos lost by 21. We gave them 32 against Jacksonville and they won. We gave them 20 against the Rams and they won. We gave them 36 in San Francisco and they lost. We gave them 50 against the Chargers and 30 against Seattle and they won both. Four wins from about two and a third expected is a win and two-thirds ahead, among the larger overperformances in the league. The market opened Denver at ten wins. Our model sat nearly two over it in July and sits a win under it now. The lean has reversed on the quarterback, and the defense is the only reason it is not two wins under.
