Denver lost in San Francisco and is 2-2, and our model has the Broncos at nine wins with the offense the problem for a fourth straight week
Updated
Denver went to San Francisco and lost 24-14, scored two touchdowns against a defense without Nick Bosa, and fell to 2-2. The Broncos have beaten Jacksonville and the Rams in consecutive weeks and lost to Kansas City and the 49ers by 21 and ten, which is a team that beats the good teams it hosts and loses to the good teams it visits. When we ran the rest of the season Denver came out at 9-8 with a 38.5 percent playoff chance, down from 9.4 wins and 55 percent after Week 3 and three full wins below the 11.7 we projected in July. The model has downgraded the Broncos every week since the summer, and the reason has not changed.
The offense is the reason. Bo Nix is 81 of 135 for 819 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions, an 80 rating through four games, and our model projects him for 3,919 yards, 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The rating projection has been stuck at 85 for a month. Jaylen Waddle has 16 catches for 185 yards and projects for 109 catches and 1,402 yards, which is the model betting on volume rather than what it has seen. Courtland Sutton projects for 56 catches. Pat Bryant sprained an ankle and is expected to miss a few weeks. Evan Engram projects for 44 catches. The running game has not produced a touchdown from a running back. J.K. Dobbins has 161 yards on 46 carries and projects for 780. RJ Harvey has 20 catches and projects for 56, which is the model treating him as a receiver who occasionally runs. The unit projects for 332 points, 22nd in the league, and Denver has scored 74 in four games.
The defense is still the reason the Broncos project for nine wins rather than seven. Denver projects to allow 349 points, 13th in the league, and the twelfth-fewest yards. The takeaway projection is the best part. The Broncos project for over 14 interceptions, third in football, with Talanoa Hufanga at two already and four projected, and Brandon Jones at three. Zach Allen has four sacks in four games and projects for nine and a half. Nik Bonitto projects for nine and a half, Jonah Elliss for eight. The team projects for 43 sacks, 14th. Riley Moss projects for 96 tackles from corner, which is the sign of a secondary that is getting targeted. The unit held the Rams to 26 and Jacksonville to 13. It gave up 31 in Kansas City and 24 in San Francisco, and the model has priced in a defense that is good and not elite.
The division has a clear leader and three teams behind it. Kansas City is 4-0 and projects for twelve wins. Las Vegas is 3-1 and projects for nine, level with Denver. The Chargers are 0-4 and project for six. When we ran the rest of the season the Broncos won the AFC West in a small minority of simulated years, and finished third more often than second, which is a sentence that would have been hard to write in July when the model had Denver at nearly twelve wins and a four percent title shot.
The next month is the softest stretch the Broncos will see. A trip to the Chargers at 50 percent, Seattle at home at 40, a trip to Arizona at 68, Kansas City at home at 40, and a trip to Carolina at 34. When we ran that stretch Denver went 2-3 more often than anything else, and the Arizona game is the only one the model treats as a clear win. A 4-5 record entering November would keep the nine-win projection alive and the wild card race in view.
The player lines are a quarterback the model has stopped moving and a receiver it has started to doubt. Nix's projection dropped from 3,949 yards to 3,919 and from 22 touchdowns to 21, with his interception line down from 16 to 14 and his rating projection stuck at 85. Waddle's projection fell from 111 catches to 109 and from 1,508 yards to 1,402, the biggest receiving move on the roster. Sutton's dropped from 59 catches to 56. Bryant's rose from 38 catches to 40 before the ankle. Harvey's receiving projection climbed from 45 catches to 56. Dobbins' rushing line held at 780. On defense, Bonitto's sack projection fell from 10.4 to 9.6, Allen's from 10.1 to 9.4, and Elliss' from 9.1 to 7.9. Hufanga's interception line dropped from 4.4 to four and his tackle projection from 100 to 90. Moss' tackle projection fell from 103 to 96. The number to watch is the points scored. Denver projects for 332, 22nd in the league, and has scored 74 in four games. The defense projected 13th cannot carry a 22nd-ranked offense to more than nine wins, and the model has said so for a month.
The matchup record is a team that has beaten the model's favorites and lost to them. We gave Denver 66 percent in Kansas City, which was the Week 1 model, and the Broncos lost by 21. We gave them 32 against Jacksonville and they won by seven. We gave them 20 against the Rams and they won by four. We gave them 36 in San Francisco and they lost by ten. Two wins from about one and a half expected is slightly ahead, and the two wins were the two the model did not see coming. The market opened Denver at ten wins. Our model sat nearly two over it in July and sits a win under it now. The lean has reversed and the reason is the quarterback. The defense has done its part. The offense has scored 74 points, and the model has stopped waiting for it.
