Green Bay won in Tampa by three without Parsons and Jacobs, and our model lifted the Packers to eight wins with the roster still incomplete
Updated
Green Bay went to Tampa Bay and won 17-14, a game our model gave the Packers a 70 percent chance in, and the win was as narrow as the number suggested it should not be. The Packers are 2-2, and the two wins have come by three points each against the Jets and Buccaneers. When we ran the rest of the season Green Bay came out at 8-9 with a 17.5 percent playoff chance, up from 7.1 wins and seven percent after Week 3 and still two wins below the 9.9 we projected in July. The projection has recovered a full win in a week. The roster has not recovered the two players the model is waiting for.
Micah Parsons remains on the physically unable to perform list until at least mid-October. Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner's exempt list and could face a four to six game suspension beyond that. Jayden Reed is reportedly facing season-ending neck surgery. That is the context for everything below, and the model's eight wins already assumes Parsons returns and Jacobs does not. The passing game has carried what it can. Jordan Love is 87 of 154 for 1,040 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, an 86.5 rating through four games, and projects for 4,669 yards and 30 touchdowns. Christian Watson has 20 catches for 331 yards and four touchdowns and projects for 104 catches, 1,549 yards and eleven scores. Matthew Golden has 274 yards and two touchdowns and projects for 80 catches and 1,143. Tucker Kraft projects for 66 catches. The unit projects for 357 points, 18th in the league.
The running game is a committee that has not produced a rushing touchdown from a running back in four games. MarShawn Lloyd has 81 yards on 30 carries and his projection has more than doubled to 329 as he has taken the lead role back from Kaleb Johnson, who projects for 255. Between them that is under 600 rushing yards from a backfield that was supposed to be built around Jacobs' 250 carries. Green Bay has scored 73 points in four games, and the ground game is the reason an offense with a passing attack this productive ranks 18th in projected points.
The defense is where the absence of Parsons shows and where the model has started to see something anyway. Green Bay projects to allow 400 points, 26th in the league, down from 414 a week ago, and the seventh-most yards. Lukas Van Ness has three sacks and projects for nearly 16, which is the best line on the defense. Edgerrin Cooper has three sacks and an interception from linebacker. Barryn Sorrell projects for nine. Javon Bullard projects for nearly four interceptions and 112 tackles. The team projects for nearly 47 sacks, sixth in football, and over 13 interceptions, eighth. Those are the numbers of a front that gets home and a back end that cannot hold, and the Tampa Bay game, 14 points allowed to a team playing a backup quarterback, was the first sign of the back end holding.
The division has moved past the Packers and the model is honest about that. Minnesota is 4-0 and projects for nine wins with the head-to-head already banked. Chicago is 3-1 and projects for ten. Detroit is 2-2 and projects for 13 with a 24 percent title chance. When we ran the rest of the season Green Bay finished last in the NFC North more often than any other spot, though less often than a week ago, and the Bears game at home this week is the first chance to change that order.
The next month is where the season gets decided before the reinforcements arrive. Chicago at home at 48 percent against a Bears team playing Tyson Bagent, Dallas at home at 34, a trip to Detroit at 18, Carolina at home at 50, and a trip to New England at 40. When we ran that stretch Green Bay went 2-3 more often than anything else, and the Detroit game is close to a loss in the model's eyes. A 4-5 record entering November with Parsons back would leave the eight-win projection needing a 4-4 finish from a roster the model rated at ten wins in July.
The player lines are a roster the model is still rerunning around two absences. Love's projection climbed from 4,661 yards to 4,669 and from 28 touchdowns to 30, with his rating projection up from 93.8 to 94.3. Watson's dropped from 105 catches to 104 and from 1,583 yards to 1,549. Golden's from 79 catches to 80 and from 1,172 yards to 1,143. Kraft's climbed from 60 catches to 66. Jonnu Smith's from 30 to 31. Lloyd's rushing projection went from 135 yards to 329, the biggest move on the roster, and Johnson's dropped from 332 to 255 as the model flipped the backfield. On defense, Van Ness' sack projection slipped from 16.4 to 15.9 and Sorrell's from 9.5 to 8.9. Bullard's interception line dropped from 4.4 to 3.9 and his tackle projection from 120 to 112. McKinney's sack line jumped from near zero to over one. McDuffie's tackle projection rose from 101 to 103. The number to watch is Parsons' return date. The eight-win projection assumes he is back by late October. Jacobs is not in the projection at all, and if the suspension runs long, that will not change.
The matchup record is a team that has won the games it was favored in and lost the ones it was not, which is the honest profile. We gave Green Bay 64 percent in Minnesota and the Packers lost by 17. We gave them 58 against the Jets and they won by three. We gave them 40 against Atlanta and they lost by 21. We gave them 70 in Tampa and they won by three. Two wins from about two and a third expected is close to even, and the Minnesota loss is the one the model still holds against them. The market opened Green Bay at ten wins. Our model sat on it in July and sits two under it now. The gap is still about how much of the season the roster spends at full strength, and the answer so far is none of it. Eight wins assumes Parsons comes back. Ten assumes both of them do, and the model has stopped assuming that.
