Washington took the champions to the wire in Philadelphia, and our model gave the Commanders half a win for it
Updated
We hung a flag on this one in July. Our model had Washington under four wins, nearly four clear below a betting line in the mid sevens, and we said the bearish direction was grounded in a 31st-ranked defense but the magnitude leaned on an offense grade that was probably selling Jayden Daniels short. Then Washington went to Philadelphia and lost 24-22 to the team our model now calls the best defense in football. When we re-ran the season the Commanders came out at four and a half wins, a 4-12 finish, up half a win from the summer. The flag stays up. The number moved a little in the direction we said it might.
The offense is where it moved. Daniels went 18 of 34 for 164 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover against the Eagles, and our model now projects him for 3,392 yards and 18 touchdowns against just seven interceptions behind a passer rating of 93, up from the 3,277 yards, 15 scores and 88 rating we had in July. That is still a modest line for a quarterback who electrified the league as a rookie, and it is still the place where our model and our own eyes part ways. But it is a step toward the version of Daniels we think is real, and it came against the stingiest defense in the league.
The weapons are thin, and Week 1 made them thinner. Terry McLaurin projects for 67 catches and 906 yards as the reliable number one. Antonio Williams caught a touchdown against Philadelphia and climbs to 51 catches for 717 yards. Stefon Diggs settles in at 54 catches. Chigoziem Okonkwo, the tight end, left with a hamstring injury. Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 63 and a score and projects for 713 yards on the season. The unit projects for 272 points, 30th in the league, and the 30th-most yards, which is a functional offense with one dynamic player and not nearly enough around him.
The defense is the honest reason for the projection, and it looked better in Philadelphia than its grade. Odafe Oweh had two sacks and projects for 17 on the season, one of the highest totals in our numbers. Javon Kinlaw added a sack inside. Our model still projects Washington allowing 395 points, 26th in the league, and giving up the 29th-most yards, which is a step up from the 459 points and 31st ranking we had in July but still a bottom-third unit. Frankie Luvu left the game with a groin injury and Tyler Owens with an ankle, and a defense this thin cannot afford to lose its linebackers. Holding the Eagles to 24 was a good afternoon. It was also a Philadelphia offense that grades 12th, not first.
So the tension is the same tension. The defense deserves a bearish read, and a unit that gives up 395 points is going to lose a lot of games no matter who plays quarterback. But four and a half wins is a bottom-five record, and that asks the offense to be as mediocre as its grade rather than as dynamic as Daniels can be. Week 1 was a small piece of evidence that he can drag this roster into games it has no business being in. It was not evidence that he can win them.
The division does the Commanders no favors, though it looked more even over the weekend than it did in the summer. Philadelphia climbed to twelve wins. Dallas fell to nine after losing in New York without Tyler Smith. The Giants beat the Cowboys and still project for five. When we ran the rest of the season, Washington finished last in the NFC East more often than not, but the gap to the Giants is a coin flip and the six divisional games are closer than a four-win projection suggests.
The market opened Washington in the mid sevens, and in July we sat nearly four under it. Now we sit three under, and we still hold the number at arm's length for the same reason. The defense justifies pessimism. The bottom-five magnitude rests on an offense grade that Daniels has now spent one afternoon arguing with. If he takes the second-year leap and the offense climbs from 30th to the middle of the league, seven wins is on the table and the market is right.
The next month tells us how much of Philadelphia was real. Washington goes to Dallas in Week 2 against a Cowboys offense playing without Tyler Smith, hosts Seattle in Week 3, then gets Indianapolis and the Giants at home in consecutive weeks. When we ran that stretch, the Commanders were an underdog in all four, with the Giants game the only one close to a coin flip, and a 1-3 month is the projection, with 2-2 on the table if Daniels keeps playing the way he did against the Eagles. Two wins would put Washington at 2-3 entering October and ahead of the projection. An 0-4 month would have the four-win number looking generous. The defense, with Luvu and Owens hurt, is the reason the model expects the second.
So here is where we land, with a number we publish and a caveat we keep. Washington's defense is bad enough to make a losing season likely, and the roster is thin enough that the injuries in Philadelphia matter. But the quarterback just went toe to toe with the best defense in football and lost by two, and that is exactly the kind of variable a projection can undervalue. Watch the offense. If Daniels keeps this up, tear up the number. If the defense keeps hemorrhaging, the low projection will look prescient.
