Washington lost to Indianapolis in London and may get Jayden Daniels back this week, and our model has the Commanders at four and a half wins
Updated
Washington lost 30-13 to Indianapolis in London, its third loss in four games, and now has a quarterback question that cuts both ways. Marcus Mariota, who has started three games and played well, sprained his MCL against the Colts. Jayden Daniels, who dislocated his elbow in September, is reportedly on track to start against the Giants on Sunday. When we ran the rest of the season Washington came out at 5-12 with no meaningful playoff chance, averaging four and a half wins, which is where it sat after Week 3 and within a win of the 3.7 we projected in July. The model's view of the Commanders has been steady all year. The quarterback coming back is the first thing that could change it.
The offense has been competitive when it has had a quarterback and that is the case for Daniels. Mariota is 33 of 51 for 340 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions, a 110 rating, across his three appearances, and the model projects him for 371 yards the rest of the way, which is the model assuming he is the backup again. Daniels is 29 of 51 for 260 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in his two games and projects for 2,995 yards and 15 touchdowns across the games the model expects him to play. Terry McLaurin has a hamstring injury and projects for 61 catches and 878 yards, down from 65 and 938. Stefon Diggs has three touchdowns on 18 catches. Antonio Williams has 137 yards. Jaylin Lane's season is likely over after a dislocated ankle. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 157 rushing yards on 56 carries and projects for 491. Rachaad White missed London with a shoulder injury. The unit projects for 272 points, 29th in the league.
The defense has been the weaker half and the London game was the clearest demonstration. Washington projects to allow 404 points, 27th in the league, and the tenth-most yards. Odafe Oweh is the best line on the sheet at nearly 14 projected sacks, and the team projects for 39 sacks, 20th. Dorance Armstrong projects for under five. Tim Settle's projection has climbed to four and a half from the interior. Rasul Douglas' interception projection has more than doubled to over two. Jeremy Reaves projects for 105 tackles and Leo Chenal for 103, which is a lot of tackling from a safety and a linebacker on a team that gives up 122 points in a month. The unit held Seattle to 31 in the win and gave up 37 to Dallas and 30 to Indianapolis in two of the losses.
The division is three teams and the Commanders. Dallas is 2-2 and projects for ten wins. Philadelphia is 2-2 and projects for nine. The Giants are 3-1 and project for eight. Washington has lost to the Eagles and Cowboys already and plays the Giants twice. When we ran the rest of the season the Commanders finished last in the NFC East in nearly every simulated year, which is the same sentence the model has produced every week since July.
The next month is where Daniels' return gets tested. The Giants at home at 40 percent, a trip to San Francisco at 22, a bye in Week 7, Philadelphia at home at 24, and the Rams at home at ten. When we ran that stretch Washington went 1-3 more often than 0-4, and the Giants game is the one the model treats as winnable. A 2-6 record entering November would put the four and a half wins on schedule, and a healthy Daniels is the only thing that would push it higher.
The player lines are a quarterback room the model expects to change again. Daniels' projection dropped from 3,145 yards to 2,995 and his rushing line from 292 yards to 277, which is the model adding a missed game rather than doubting the player. Mariota's rose from 321 yards to 371 and his rushing projection from 14 yards to 50. McLaurin's projection fell from 65 catches to 61 with the hamstring. Antonio Williams' climbed from 51 catches to 54. Diggs' held at 57 catches and five touchdowns. Croskey-Merritt's rushing projection dropped from 535 to 491. White's held at 265 yards. On defense, Oweh's sack projection climbed from 13 to 13.9, Settle's from 3.4 to 4.6, and Armstrong's held at 4.7. Douglas' interception line went from one to 2.3, the biggest move on the roster. Reaves' tackle projection rose from 99 to 105 and Chenal's fell from 111 to 103. The number to watch is Daniels' first game back. The model has him for 2,995 yards across the games it expects him to play, which is most of them. If the elbow holds, the four and a half wins is a floor. If it does not, Mariota's knee is the next question.
The matchup record is a team that has lost the games it was supposed to lose and won one it was not. We gave Washington 14 percent in Philadelphia and the Commanders lost by two. We gave them 22 in Dallas and they lost by 17. We gave them ten against Seattle and they won by two. We gave them 28 in London and they lost by 17. One win from three-quarters of an expected win is slightly ahead, and the Seattle upset with Mariota throwing four touchdowns was the best result of the season. The market opened Washington at six wins. Our model sat two and a half under it in July and sits a win and a half under it now. The lean is the defense, which has allowed 122 points, and a quarterback situation that has been in flux since Week 2. Daniels returning does not fix the defense. It does make the next five games more interesting than the model currently has them.
