NFL Week 2 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 2
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
MODEL THIS WEEK
7-9 straight up
8-8 ATS 2-6 value picks 1-3 best bets 16 of 16 played
Thursday, Sep 17
Thu
PROJ FINAL
DET 74%
BUF 26%
PASS
Jared Goff281 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Jared Goff281 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Jahmyr Gibbs89 rush yds, 1.1 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs89 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC
Amon-Ra St. Brown6.9 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown6.9 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
BUF -4.5 O/U 53.5 vs Model DET -7.5
Sim Prediction: Lions by 7.5
Full breakdown →
✗
BUF won by 10
(model: DET by 7.5)
BEST BET DET +4.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 72 pts, over
The model leans Lions by 7.5, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 28-21).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.8 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 65% of routes for 7.8/10.5, 76 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Sunday, Sep 20
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CAR 18%
ATL 82%
PASS
Bryce Young251 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Bryce Young251 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson98 rush yds, 1.1 TD
Bijan Robinson98 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC
Drake London6.4 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
Drake London6.4 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
CAR -1 O/U 44 vs Model ATL -8.9
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 8.9
Full breakdown →
✗
CAR won by 31
(model: ATL by 8.9)
BEST BET ATL +1 LOSS
The model leans Falcons by 8.9, winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 27-18).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.2 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Jaycee Horn (Panthers) - winner: Jaycee Horn, holding him to 22 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NO 30%
BLT 70%
PASS
Tyler Shough240 pass yds, 1.1 TD
Tyler Shough240 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry87 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Derrick Henry87 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Chris Olave6.6 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave6.6 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
BLT -8 O/U 47.5 vs Model BLT -4.8
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 4.8
Full breakdown →
✗
NO won by 7
(model: BLT by 4.8)
NO +8 WIN
Lean Under: 41 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 70% of them, by 4.8 on average (20-16).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) vs Teddye Buchanan (Ravens) - winner: Teddye Buchanan, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
MIN 32%
CHI 68%
PASS
Caleb Williams243 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Caleb Williams243 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
D'Andre Swift54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
D'Andre Swift54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
CHI -5.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model CHI -7.0
Sim Prediction: Bears by 7.0
Full breakdown →
✗
MIN won by 6
(model: CHI by 7.0)
CHI -5.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 12 pts, under
The model leans Bears by 7.0, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 25-17).
The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 50% of reps for 6.1 sacks a game, Montez Sweat (3.4 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 49% win rate, 6.0 sacks and 27.0 pressures a game (Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CIN 54%
HST 46%
PASS
Joe Burrow317 pass yds, 2.2 TD
Joe Burrow317 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery60 rush yds, 0.6 TD
David Montgomery60 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Ja'Marr Chase7.9 rec, 95 yds, 0.5 TD
Ja'Marr Chase7.9 rec, 95 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
HST -3 O/U 46.5 vs Model CIN -2.4
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 2.4
Full breakdown →
✓
CIN won by 14
(model: CIN by 2.4)
CIN +3 WIN
Lean Over: 26 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Bengals win 54% of them, by 2.4 on average (26-23).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Orlando Brown Jr. (Bengals) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 4.0 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
PIT 50%
NE 50%
PASS
Aaron Rodgers252 pass yds, 1.1 TD
Aaron Rodgers252 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH
Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
D.K. Metcalf6.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
D.K. Metcalf6.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
NE -5.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model PIT -1.1
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 1.1
Full breakdown →
✗
NE won by 17
(model: PIT by 1.1)
VALUE PIT +5.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 23 pts, under
The sim sides with Steelers: a 1.1-point edge and a 50% win rate over 50 runs (19-18).
D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 43 yds on just 33% open, 1.1 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Michael Pittman Jr. (Steelers) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 25 yds on just 38% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
GB 58%
NYJ 42%
PASS
Jordan Love253 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Jordan Love253 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Breece Hall67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Breece Hall67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Christian Watson4.9 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
Christian Watson4.9 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
GB -3.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model GB -3.4
Sim Prediction: Packers by 3.4
Full breakdown →
✓
GB won by 3
(model: GB by 3.4)
NYJ +3.5 WIN
Lean Under: 37 pts, under
Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 3.4 (20-16).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Jets) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CLV 24%
TB 76%
PASS
Baker Mayfield207 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Baker Mayfield207 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Quinshon Judkins53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Quinshon Judkins53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Emeka Egbuka4.4 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
Emeka Egbuka4.4 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
TB -8 O/U 41 vs Model TB -6.4
Sim Prediction: Buccaneers by 6.4
Full breakdown →
✗
CLV won by 4
(model: TB by 6.4)
CLV +8 WIN
Lean Under: 42 pts, over
Buccaneers are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 21-14).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Jacob Parrish, holding him to 24 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Ronnie Hickman Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
PHI 90%
TEN 10%
PASS
Jalen Hurts207 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Jalen Hurts207 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Saquon Barkley70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Saquon Barkley70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
DeVonta Smith5.0 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
DeVonta Smith5.0 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
PHI -7 O/U 39.5 vs Model PHI -14.0
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 14.0
Full breakdown →
✓
PHI won by 4
(model: PHI by 14.0)
VALUE PHI -7 LOSS
Lean Under: 44 pts, over
The model leans Eagles by 14.0, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 24-10).
Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 28 yds on just 33% open, 1.3 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Cedric Gray (Titans) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 5.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
JAX 68%
DEN 32%
PASS
Trevor Lawrence231 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Trevor Lawrence231 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
J.K. Dobbins53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
J.K. Dobbins53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle6.5 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
Jaylen Waddle6.5 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
DEN -2.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model JAX -3.9
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 3.9
Full breakdown →
✗
DEN won by 7
(model: JAX by 3.9)
VALUE JAX +2.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 33 pts, under
The model leans Jaguars by 3.9, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 21-17).
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 30 yds on just 37% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
LV 20%
LAC 80%
PASS
Justin Herbert248 pass yds, 1.8 TD
Justin Herbert248 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH
Omarion Hampton63 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Omarion Hampton63 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Ladd McConkey6.0 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
Ladd McConkey6.0 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
LAC -7 O/U 43.5 vs Model LAC -8.0
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 8.0
Full breakdown →
✗
LV won by 12
(model: LAC by 8.0)
LAC -7 LOSS
The sim sides with Chargers: a 8.0-point edge and a 80% win rate over 50 runs (25-17).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Tuli Tuipulotu (Chargers) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Tuli Tuipulotu, winning 55% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 3.8 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
SEA 72%
ARZ 28%
PASS
Sam Darnold268 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Sam Darnold268 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Jadarian Price53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Jadarian Price53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Marvin Harrison Jr.5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
Marvin Harrison Jr.5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
SEA -4.5 O/U 41 vs Model SEA -5.6
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 5.6
Full breakdown →
✓
SEA won by 24
(model: SEA by 5.6)
SEA -4.5 WIN
Lean Under: 38 pts, under
Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 5.6 (22-17).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Julian Love (Seahawks) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 4.7 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Will Johnson (Cardinals) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 6.9/8.5, 63 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
WAS 22%
DAL 78%
PASS
Dak Prescott284 pass yds, 1.8 TD
Dak Prescott284 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH
Javonte Williams59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Javonte Williams59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
CeeDee Lamb6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
CeeDee Lamb6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
DAL -3.5 O/U 50 vs Model DAL -8.6
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 8.6
Full breakdown →
✓
DAL won by 17
(model: DAL by 8.6)
DAL -3.5 WIN
Lean Under: 57 pts, over
The sim sides with Cowboys: a 8.6-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (24-15).
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Kenny Clark (Cowboys) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Kenny Clark, winning 55% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
MIA 34%
SF 66%
PASS
Brock Purdy247 pass yds, 1.7 TD
Brock Purdy247 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
De'Von Achane82 rush yds, 0.7 TD
De'Von Achane82 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Mike Evans4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
Mike Evans4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
SF -13.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model SF -4.3
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 4.3
Full breakdown →
✓
SF won by 22
(model: SF by 4.3)
BEST BET MIA +13.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 48 pts, over
The model leans 49ers by 4.3, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 23-19).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.1 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
CJ West (49ers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: CJ West, winning 56% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
IND 52%
KC 48%
PASS
Daniel Jones268 pass yds, 1.7 TD
Daniel Jones268 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
Jonathan Taylor93 rush yds, 1.0 TD
Jonathan Taylor93 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC
Alec Pierce5.6 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
Alec Pierce5.6 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
KC -6.5 O/U 48 vs Model IND -2.2
Sim Prediction: Colts by 2.2
Full breakdown →
✗
KC won by 3
(model: IND by 2.2)
VALUE IND +6.5 WIN
Lean Over: 63 pts, over
Colts are the pick here, favoured by 2.2 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 27-24).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Monday, Sep 21
Mon
PROJ FINAL
NYG 4%
LA 96%
PASS
Matthew Stafford295 pass yds, 2.5 TD
Matthew Stafford295 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams81 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Kyren Williams81 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Puka Nacua8.2 rec, 110 yds, 0.7 TD
Puka Nacua8.2 rec, 110 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET
LA -6.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LA -24.4
Sim Prediction: Rams by 24.4
Full breakdown →
✓
LA won by 22
(model: LA by 24.4)
BEST BET LA -6.5 WIN
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 96% of the time by an average of 24.4 (36-11).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Malachi Fields (Giants) vs Jaylen Watson (Rams) - winner: Jaylen Watson, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.