Carolina beat Detroit as a 24 percent underdog and is 2-2 with Bryce Young at a 100 rating, and our model holds the Panthers at nine wins
Updated
Carolina beat Detroit 32-26 at home as a 24 percent underdog, scoring 32 on the best offense in football's defense and holding the Lions under their average, and the Panthers are 2-2 with wins over Atlanta and Detroit. When we ran the rest of the season Carolina came out at 9-8 with a 40.5 percent playoff chance, which is a fraction above the 8.7 wins it sat at after Week 3 and two and a half wins above the 6.6 the summer sim projected. The playoff odds dipped from 49 percent because Atlanta's climbed sharply in the same run, and the Falcons' 45-point night in New Orleans made the NFC South a harder division to win than it looked a week ago.
The quarterback has been the reason the model moved in September and the reason it has held in October. Bryce Young is 101 of 162 for 1,268 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions, a 100 rating through four games, and has been sacked ten times. Our model projects him for 4,852 yards and 31 touchdowns against eight interceptions behind a 103 rating, which is the fourth-highest rating projection of any starter and up four points in a week. Tetairoa McMillan has 26 catches for 385 yards and two scores and projects for 108 catches and 1,534 yards, up from 92 and 1,286. Jalen Coker missed the Lions game with a quad injury and the Week 5 bye should help. Darren Waller has two touchdowns on 13 catches and projects for 51. Brycen Tremayne's projection has jumped from five catches to 36 as he has filled in. Chuba Hubbard has 306 rushing yards and three touchdowns and projects for 821 and eight. Jonathan Brooks is on injured reserve after core surgery. The unit projects for 399 points, tenth in the league.
The defense has been the hedge all year, and the Lions game did not change it. Carolina projects to allow 381 points, 23rd in the league, up from 350 and 15th a week ago, which is the model pricing in the 26 Detroit scored and the 59 Chicago scored in Week 1. The pass rush is the strength. Jaelan Phillips projects for 13 sacks. Princely Umanmielen has three sacks and his projection has climbed to six. Pat Jones II for three and a half. The team projects for 36 sacks, 26th, which is the number that worries the model. The back end has been better than that. Devin Lloyd has two interceptions and projects for over four with 113 tackles. Tre'von Moehrig projects for 83 stops. Bobby Okereke for 89. The unit has given up 109 points in four games, 59 of them in Week 1.
The division is Atlanta's to lose and Carolina is the team most likely to make it lose. The Falcons are 2-2 and project for eleven wins with the head-to-head already lost to the Panthers. New Orleans is 1-3 and projects for six. Tampa Bay is 0-4 and projects for three. When we ran the rest of the season Carolina won the NFC South in a meaningful minority of simulated years and finished second in most of the rest, which is a change from a week ago when the two teams were closer.
The next month starts with a bye and then gets hard. Week 5 off, a trip to Philadelphia at 26 percent, Tampa Bay at home at 66, a trip to Green Bay at 50, and Denver at home at 66. When we ran that stretch Carolina went 2-2 more often than anything else, with the Eagles game treated as a loss and the Buccaneers and Broncos games as wins. A 4-4 record entering November would keep nine wins on schedule and the wild card race in view.
The player lines are a quarterback the model keeps upgrading and a defense it keeps downgrading. Young's projection climbed from 4,607 yards to 4,852 and from 29 touchdowns to 31, with his interception line down from nine to eight and his rating projection up from 99.3 to 103.3, the fourth-highest of any starter. McMillan's rose from 92 catches to 108 and from 1,286 yards to 1,534, one of the two largest receiving moves in the league this week. Coker's dropped from 77 catches to 74 with the quad. Waller's held at 51 catches. Tremayne's went from five catches to 36. Hubbard's rushing projection climbed from 763 to 821 and his touchdown line from six to eight. Dillon's dropped from 255 yards to 199. On defense, Phillips' sack projection fell from 14.4 to 13.2, Umanmielen's rose from five to 6.1, and Lloyd's interception line dropped from 4.4 to 4.1 with his tackle projection up from 108 to 113. Moehrig's tackle projection fell from 88 to 83. The number to watch is the points allowed. Carolina projects for 381, up from 350 a week ago, and the nine-win projection is a 399-point offense outscoring a 381-point defense. That is a thin margin, and the model knows it.
The matchup record is a team that has beaten the model's favorites and lost to its underdogs. We gave Carolina 38 percent against Chicago and the Panthers lost by 22. We gave them 18 in Atlanta and they won by 31. We gave them 74 in Cleveland and they lost by three. We gave them 24 against Detroit and they won by six. Two wins from about one and a half expected is ahead of the projection, and both wins came against teams the model had well above Carolina. The market opened Carolina at seven and a half wins. Our model sat a win under it in July and sits a win and a half over it now. The lean is the quarterback, who is playing at the level of the top five in the league by our numbers. The hedge is a pass rush that cannot get home and a defense that has given up 59 and 26 in two home games.
