NFL Week 14 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 14
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
Thursday, Dec 10
Thu
8:15pm
PROJ
MIN 32%
NE 68%
PASS
Drake Maye241 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Drake Maye241 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Rhamondre Stevenson52 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson52 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Romeo Doubs4.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
Romeo Doubs4.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 4.2
Full breakdown →
The model leans Patriots by 4.2, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 22-18).
Romeo Doubs (Patriots) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 43 yds on just 34% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 19 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Sunday, Dec 13
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
TB 32%
BLT 68%
PASS
Baker Mayfield194 pass yds, 0.7 TD
Baker Mayfield194 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Derrick Henry66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Zay Flowers4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
Zay Flowers4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 8.1
Full breakdown →
The model leans Ravens by 8.1, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 22-14).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Teddye Buchanan (Ravens) - winner: Teddye Buchanan, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 65% of routes for 5.6/7.1, 53 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
NO 24%
CAR 76%
PASS
Bryce Young308 pass yds, 2.2 TD
Bryce Young308 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH
Chuba Hubbard42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Chuba Hubbard42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Chris Olave8.3 rec, 118 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave8.3 rec, 118 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 6.4
Full breakdown →
Panthers are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 27-20).
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Akayleb Evans (Panthers) - winner: Akayleb Evans, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 61% of routes for 8.6/10.4, 83 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
ATL 84%
CLV 16%
PASS
Deshaun Watson214 pass yds, 0.9 TD
Deshaun Watson214 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson139 rush yds, 1.9 TD
Bijan Robinson139 rush yds, 1.9 TD
REC
Denzel Boston5.2 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
Denzel Boston5.2 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 13.6
Full breakdown →
Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 13.6 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 29-15).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 9.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Mike Hughes, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
TEN 2%
DET 98%
PASS
Jared Goff253 pass yds, 2.0 TD
Jared Goff253 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH
Jahmyr Gibbs98 rush yds, 1.4 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs98 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC
Carnell Tate5.7 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
Carnell Tate5.7 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 21.1
Full breakdown →
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 21.1 and winning 98% of 50 sims (projected 34-13).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 7.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 4.7 sacks and 10.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
CHI 78%
MIA 22%
PASS
Caleb Williams220 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Caleb Williams220 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
D'Andre Swift72 rush yds, 0.3 TD
D'Andre Swift72 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Rome Odunze4.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
Rome Odunze4.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Bears by 9.3
Full breakdown →
Run it 50 times and Bears win 78% of them, by 9.3 on average (23-14).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Clark Phillips III, holding him to 24 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: D'Andre Swift, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
DEN 48%
NYJ 52%
PASS
Bo Nix206 pass yds, 0.8 TD
Bo Nix206 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH
Breece Hall59 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Breece Hall59 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Jets by 0.6
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Jets: a 0.6-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (16-16).
The Jets may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Kingsley Enagbare (1.1 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) out front.
Pressure could be scarce for the Broncos — a 50% win rate, 6.1 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game — Jonah Elliss (2.2 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) out front.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
IND 42%
PHI 58%
PASS
Jalen Hurts228 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Jalen Hurts228 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
DeVonta Smith4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
DeVonta Smith4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 2.7
Full breakdown →
Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.7 (20-18).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
HST 78%
WAS 22%
PASS
C.J. Stroud272 pass yds, 1.4 TD
C.J. Stroud272 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
David Montgomery38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Nico Collins5.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
Nico Collins5.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Texans by 8.2
Full breakdown →
Texans are the pick here, favoured by 8.2 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 22-14).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Brandon Coleman (Commanders) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 4.7 sacks and 10.1 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Jake Hansen (Texans) - winner: Jake Hansen, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Sun
4:05pm
PROJ
LAC 48%
LV 52%
PASS
Kirk Cousins253 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Kirk Cousins253 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Omarion Hampton47 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Omarion Hampton47 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Tre Tucker5.4 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
Tre Tucker5.4 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Raiders by 0.5
Full breakdown →
The model leans Raiders by 0.5, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 19-18).
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Tony Jefferson, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
KC 48%
CIN 52%
PASS
Joe Burrow340 pass yds, 2.4 TD
Joe Burrow340 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH
Kenneth Walker III93 rush yds, 1.0 TD
Kenneth Walker III93 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC
Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 101 yds, 0.5 TD
Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 101 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 0.8
Full breakdown →
The model leans Bengals by 0.8, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 26-25).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
NYG 20%
SEA 80%
PASS
Sam Darnold244 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Sam Darnold244 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Emanuel Wilson48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Emanuel Wilson48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 9.6
Full breakdown →
Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 80% of them, by 9.6 on average (21-12).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Josh Jobe (Seahawks) - winner: Josh Jobe, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: Greg Newsome II, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
LA 82%
SF 18%
PASS
Matthew Stafford269 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Matthew Stafford269 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Kyren Williams74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Puka Nacua6.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
Puka Nacua6.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 13.5
Full breakdown →
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 13.5 (28-14).
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Sun
8:20pm
PROJ
BUF 36%
GB 64%
PASS
Jordan Love315 pass yds, 2.0 TD
Jordan Love315 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH
James Cook67 rush yds, 0.1 TD
James Cook67 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC
Christian Watson6.6 rec, 106 yds, 0.6 TD
Christian Watson6.6 rec, 106 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Packers by 2.9
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Packers: a 2.9-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-20).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Maxwell Hairston, holding him to 1.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Christian Watson (Packers) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 66% of routes for 8.9/11.0, 90 yds a game - separation all day.
Monday, Dec 14
Mon
8:15pm
PROJ
PIT 42%
JAX 58%
PASS
Trevor Lawrence249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Trevor Lawrence249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Jaylen Warren58 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Jaylen Warren58 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Parker Washington5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
Parker Washington5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 2.3
Full breakdown →
Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 2.3 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 20-18).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 58% of routes for 7.0/8.9, 71 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
