Buffalo lost at home to New England and our model cut the Bills from ten wins to eight, with a trip to Los Angeles next
Updated
Buffalo was 3-0 and had just beaten Detroit by ten. Then New England came to town, Drake Maye threw for 29 points worth of offense against a defense that has been the Bills' problem all year, and the Patriots won 29-26. The record is 3-1, which is still first in the AFC East, but the model's reaction was sharp. When we ran the rest of the season Buffalo came out at 8-9 with a 33 percent playoff chance, down from 9.6 wins and 65 percent after Week 3. A home loss to a division rival the model favored is the kind of result that moves a projection, and this one moved it by more than a win.
The offense is still the reason Buffalo is 3-1. Josh Allen is 79 of 119 for 1,039 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions, and the running game has been the surprise. James Cook has 421 rushing yards and three scores through four games and projects for 1,188 and six. Allen projects for 3,850 passing yards and 22 touchdowns plus 574 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground, which is the model telling you it expects him to keep running near the goal line. Dalton Kincaid has 270 receiving yards and projects for 45 catches. Keon Coleman has 217 and projects for 42. DJ Moore aggravated a shoulder injury against New England and left the game, and his status is the first thing to check, because he projects as the number one at 84 catches and 1,163 yards. The unit projects for 394 points, eleventh in the league.
The defense is why the projection is eight wins and not ten. Buffalo has allowed 107 points in four games, and our model projects the unit giving up 416 points, 28th in the league, and the fifth-most yards. That is a defense that has been bad in exactly the way the July preview said it would be, when the Bills projected for 500 points allowed and under five wins. Greg Rousseau has six sacks in four games and projects for nearly 17, which is the one elite line on the sheet. Bradley Chubb projects for eight and a half. The team projects for 43 sacks, twelfth in football, and under ten interceptions, 23rd. The pass rush is fine. Everything behind it is the problem, and New England showed it.
The division is tighter than 3-1 suggests. New England is 2-2 and projects for nine wins, a win more than Buffalo, with the head-to-head already won. The Jets are 1-3 and project for nine. Miami is 0-4 and projects for two. When we ran the rest of the season the Bills won the AFC East in a minority of simulated years and finished behind New England more often than ahead, which is a reversal from a week ago and the direct consequence of Sunday. A 3-1 team projected to finish second in its division is unusual. It is what happens when the model has graded the roster at eight wins all along and the first three results ran ahead of it.
The next month is where it gets harder. A trip to Los Angeles at six percent against the Rams, who the model makes a 94 percent favorite, then a trip to Las Vegas at 54, a bye in Week 7, Baltimore at home at 28 and a trip to Minnesota at 44. When we ran that stretch Buffalo went 1-3 more often than 2-2, and the Rams game is close to a loss already in the model's eyes. A 4-4 record entering November is the most likely path, and it would leave the Bills in a wild card scramble with the Patriots and Jets rather than running away with the division.
The matchup record tells you why the model is skeptical. We gave Buffalo 16 percent in Houston and the Bills won, 26 against Detroit and they won by ten, 54 against the Chargers and they won, and 46 against New England and they lost. Three wins from about one and a half expected wins was the overperformance that carried the projection to ten. The New England loss was the first result that went the model's way, and the model had the Patriots as a slight favorite in that game, which tells you how it has graded the two rosters all along.
The player lines moved with the team line. Allen's passing projection climbed from 3,770 yards to 3,850 while his rushing line fell from 645 yards to 574, and his rating projection dropped from 98.8 to 97.2. Cook's rushing projection rose from 1,162 to 1,188 and his touchdown line from five to six. Moore's projection dropped from 87 catches to 84 before the shoulder injury was priced in, and Coleman's climbed from 35 catches to 42 and from 459 yards to 598, which is the model expecting him to absorb targets. Kincaid slipped from 48 catches to 45. On defense, Rousseau's sack projection fell from 18.4 to 16.8 and Chubb's from 9.9 to 8.6, while Cole Bishop's interception projection dropped from over three to two and a half. The number to watch is the points allowed, which went from 399 to 416 in a week and now ranks 28th. The Bills were a ten-win team with a 399-point defense. They are an eight-win team with a 416-point one, and the Rams this week will not help.
The market opened Buffalo at seven and a half wins. In July we sat under it. We now sit under a win over it, which is one of the smallest leans on the board. The honest read is that the model has had the Bills as an eight-win team since the summer, the three wins made it look wrong, and the New England game made it look right again. Allen and Cook have been very good. The defense has allowed 107 points. Eight wins is where those two things meet, and the Rams this week will not help the average.
