NFL Week 4 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 4
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
MODEL THIS WEEK
12-4 straight up
10-5-1 ATS 2-1 value picks 1-0 best bets 16 of 16 played
Thursday, Oct 1
Thu
PROJ FINAL
PIT 84%
CLV 16%
PASS
Aaron Rodgers238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Aaron Rodgers238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Jaylen Warren63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Jaylen Warren63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
PIT -2.5 O/U 38.5 vs Model PIT -11.0
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 11.0
Full breakdown →
✗
CLV won by 3
(model: PIT by 11.0)
VALUE PIT -2.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 51 pts, over
Run it 50 times and Steelers win 84% of them, by 11.0 on average (21-10).
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jaquan Brisker, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Jared Verse (Browns) vs Max Iheanachor (Steelers) - winner: Jared Verse, winning 57% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Sunday, Oct 4
Sun
PROJ FINAL
IND 72%
WAS 28%
PASS
Daniel Jones232 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Daniel Jones232 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Josh Downs5.4 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
Josh Downs5.4 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
IND -3.5 O/U 47 vs Model IND -5.7
Sim Prediction: Colts by 5.7
Full breakdown →
✓
IND won by 17
(model: IND by 5.7)
IND -3.5 WIN
Lean Under: 43 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Colts win 72% of them, by 5.7 on average (22-16).
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Justin Walley (Colts) - winner: Justin Walley, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Nick Cross (Commanders) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
TEN 16%
BLT 84%
PASS
Lamar Jackson179 pass yds, 1.0 TD
Lamar Jackson179 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry92 rush yds, 0.9 TD
Derrick Henry92 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC
Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
BLT -11.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model BLT -12.6
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 12.6
Full breakdown →
✓
BLT won by 6
(model: BLT by 12.6)
BLT -11.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 42 pts, under
The model leans Ravens by 12.6, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 22-9).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Chidobe Awuzie, holding him to 31 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NE 54%
BUF 46%
PASS
Drake Maye228 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Drake Maye228 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
James Cook64 rush yds, 0.2 TD
James Cook64 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
DJ Moore6.0 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
DJ Moore6.0 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
BUF -6.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model NE -1.8
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 1.8
Full breakdown →
✓
NE won by 3
(model: NE by 1.8)
VALUE NE +6.5 WIN
Lean Under: 55 pts, over
Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 1.8 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 54 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Christian Barmore (Patriots) vs Alec Anderson (Bills) - winner: Christian Barmore, winning 55% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NYJ 26%
CHI 74%
PASS
Caleb Williams220 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Caleb Williams220 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Breece Hall63 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Breece Hall63 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Rome Odunze5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.6 TD
Rome Odunze5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
CHI -3 O/U 42.5 vs Model CHI -5.7
Sim Prediction: Bears by 5.7
Full breakdown →
✓
CHI won by 11
(model: CHI by 5.7)
CHI -3 WIN
Lean Under: 35 pts, under
The sim sides with Bears: a 5.7-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (24-18).
The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 4.9 sacks a game (Montez Sweat (2.8 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 49% win rate, 4.6 sacks and 26.7 pressures a game, and Will McDonald IV (1.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
JAX 52%
CIN 48%
PASS
Joe Burrow298 pass yds, 2.0 TD
Joe Burrow298 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH
Bhayshul Tuten48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Bhayshul Tuten48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
CIN -2.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model JAX -0.7
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 0.7
Full breakdown →
✓
JAX won by 5
(model: JAX by 0.7)
JAX +2.5 WIN
Lean Under: 39 pts, under
Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 0.7 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 23-22).
Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Orlando Brown Jr. (Bengals) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 55% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) - winner: Ventrell Miller, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
DAL 50%
HST 50%
PASS
C.J. Stroud306 pass yds, 1.7 TD
C.J. Stroud306 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
Javonte Williams51 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Javonte Williams51 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Nico Collins7.0 rec, 103 yds, 0.5 TD
Nico Collins7.0 rec, 103 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
HST -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model HST -1.6
Sim Prediction: Texans by 1.6
Full breakdown →
✗
DAL won by 4
(model: HST by 1.6)
DAL +2.5 WIN
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 1.6 (24-23).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 10.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Markquese Bell (Cowboys) - winner: Markquese Bell, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
ARZ 48%
NYG 52%
PASS
Jacoby Brissett283 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Jacoby Brissett283 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Cam Skattebo47 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Cam Skattebo47 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Michael Wilson7.4 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
Michael Wilson7.4 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
ARZ -1.5 O/U 44 vs Model ARZ -0.1
Sim Prediction: Cardinals by 0.1
Full breakdown →
✗
NYG won by 12
(model: ARZ by 0.1)
NYG +1.5 WIN
Cardinals are the pick here, favoured by 0.1 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 22-22).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Jack Gibbens, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Arvell Reese (Giants) - winner: Arvell Reese, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
LA 70%
PHI 30%
PASS
Matthew Stafford271 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Matthew Stafford271 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams77 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Kyren Williams77 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Puka Nacua7.0 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
Puka Nacua7.0 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
LA -3 O/U 43 vs Model LA -7.1
Sim Prediction: Rams by 7.1
Full breakdown →
✓
LA won by 4
(model: LA by 7.1)
LA -3 WIN
Lean Under: 44 pts, over
The model leans Rams by 7.1, winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 24-17).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Aaron Donald (Rams) vs Cam Jurgens (Eagles) - winner: Aaron Donald, winning 57% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
GB 70%
TB 30%
PASS
Jordan Love265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Jordan Love265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Bucky Irving39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Bucky Irving39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Christian Watson5.9 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
Christian Watson5.9 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
GB -4 O/U 39.5 vs Model GB -5.8
Sim Prediction: Packers by 5.8
Full breakdown →
✓
GB won by 3
(model: GB by 5.8)
GB -4 LOSS
The sim sides with Packers: a 5.8-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (23-17).
Kaleb Johnson (Packers) vs Benjamin Morrison (Buccaneers) - winner: Benjamin Morrison, holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Isaiah McDuffie, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
MIA 26%
MIN 74%
PASS
Kyler Murray214 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Kyler Murray214 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Justin Jefferson4.9 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
Justin Jefferson4.9 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
MIN -11 O/U 39.5 vs Model MIN -9.6
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 9.6
Full breakdown →
✓
MIN won by 5
(model: MIN by 9.6)
MIA +11 WIN
Across 50 simulations, Vikings come out on top 74% of the time by an average of 9.6 (24-15).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 22 yds on just 34% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Caleb Banks (Vikings) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Caleb Banks, winning 58% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 6.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
KC 70%
LV 30%
PASS
Kirk Cousins259 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Kirk Cousins259 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Kenneth Walker III85 rush yds, 1.2 TD
Kenneth Walker III85 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC
Tre Tucker6.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
Tre Tucker6.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
KC -4.5 O/U 48 vs Model KC -5.9
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 5.9
Full breakdown →
✓
KC won by 3
(model: KC by 5.9)
KC -4.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 57 pts, over
The model leans Chiefs by 5.9, winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 26-20).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 7.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
LAC 40%
SEA 60%
PASS
Sam Darnold223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Sam Darnold223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Omarion Hampton46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Omarion Hampton46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
SEA -7 O/U 43 vs Model SEA -4.5
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 4.5
Full breakdown →
✓
SEA won by 7
(model: SEA by 4.5)
LAC +7 PUSH
Lean Under: 53 pts, over
The sim sides with Seahawks: a 4.5-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (21-17).
Tuli Tuipulotu (Chargers) vs Abraham Lucas (Seahawks) - winner: Tuli Tuipulotu, winning 56% of reps for 2.8 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Tarheeb Still (Chargers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 62% of routes for 9.1/11.0, 81 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
DEN 36%
SF 64%
PASS
Brock Purdy246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Brock Purdy246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 93 yds, 0.3 TD
Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 93 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
SF -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model SF -3.2
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 3.2
Full breakdown →
✓
SF won by 10
(model: SF by 3.2)
SF -2.5 WIN
Lean Under: 38 pts, under
The sim sides with 49ers: a 3.2-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-19).
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
DET 76%
CAR 24%
PASS
Bryce Young277 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Bryce Young277 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.1 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC
Tetairoa McMillan6.1 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
Tetairoa McMillan6.1 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
DET -3.5 O/U 50 vs Model DET -7.1
Sim Prediction: Lions by 7.1
Full breakdown →
✗
CAR won by 6
(model: DET by 7.1)
DET -3.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 58 pts, over
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 7.1 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 25-18).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Monroe Freeling (Panthers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Bobby Okereke (Panthers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Monday, Oct 5
Mon
PROJ FINAL
ATL 66%
NO 34%
PASS
Tyler Shough303 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Tyler Shough303 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson96 rush yds, 1.3 TD
Bijan Robinson96 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC
Chris Olave7.2 rec, 103 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave7.2 rec, 103 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
NO -2.5 O/U 48 vs Model ATL -6.9
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 6.9
Full breakdown →
✓
ATL won by 21
(model: ATL by 6.9)
BEST BET ATL +2.5 WIN
Lean Over: 69 pts, over
Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 6.9 (28-21).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Quincy Riley, holding him to 23 yds on just 40% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.