NFL Week 3 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 3

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

MODEL THIS WEEK 8-8 straight up 7-9 ATS 1-3 value picks 16 of 16 played
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Thursday, Sep 24

Thu
PROJ FINAL
ATL logo ATL 60%
23 35
GB logo GB 40%
21 14
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love266 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson85 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London Drake London7.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET GB -5.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model ATL -1.6
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 1.6
✓ ATL won by 21 (model: ATL by 1.6) VALUE ATL +5.5 WIN
Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 1.6 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs CJ Henderson (Falcons) - winner: CJ Henderson, holding him to 1.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Sep 27

Sun
PROJ FINAL
LAC logo LAC 46%
23 16
BUF logo BUF 54%
23 24
PASS Justin Herbert Justin Herbert244 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton67 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Ladd McConkey Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET BUF -7 O/U 50 vs Model BUF -1.0
Sim Prediction: Bills by 1.0
✓ BUF won by 8 (model: BUF by 1.0) VALUE LAC +7 LOSS Lean Under: 40 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Bills win 54% of them, by 1.0 on average (23-23).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Dorian Williams (Bills) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Deone Walker (Bills) vs Trey Pipkins III (Chargers) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CAR logo CAR 74%
19 18
CLV logo CLV 26%
11 21
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young230 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.4 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CAR -3 O/U 41.5 vs Model CAR -8.3
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 8.3
✗ CLV won by 3 (model: CAR by 8.3) CAR -3 LOSS Lean Under: 39 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Panthers win 74% of them, by 8.3 on average (19-11).
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Tre'von Moehrig, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NYJ logo NYJ 32%
16 24
DET logo DET 68%
23 31
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff248 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs64 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DET -6.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model DET -6.9
Sim Prediction: Lions by 6.9
✓ DET won by 7 (model: DET by 6.9) DET -6.5 WIN Lean Under: 55 pts, over
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 6.9 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 23-16).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Dane Belton (Jets) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 4.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 64% of routes for 8.0/9.5, 69 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
HST logo HST 56%
25 17
IND logo IND 44%
22 19
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud269 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor75 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET HST -2.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model HST -2.7
Sim Prediction: Texans by 2.7
✗ IND won by 2 (model: HST by 2.7) HST -2.5 LOSS Lean Over: 36 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Texans win 56% of them, by 2.7 on average (25-22).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NE logo NE 38%
19 6
JAX logo JAX 62%
24 35
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence257 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson50 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET JAX -3 O/U 45 vs Model JAX -4.9
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 4.9
✓ JAX won by 29 (model: JAX by 4.9) JAX -3 WIN Lean Under: 41 pts, under
Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 4.9 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 24-19).
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 30 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 59% of routes for 7.0/8.8, 71 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
KC logo KC 80%
29 24
MIA logo MIA 20%
18 10
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes247 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III85 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET KC -11.5 O/U 46 vs Model KC -10.4
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 10.4
✓ KC won by 14 (model: KC by 10.4) MIA +11.5 LOSS
Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 80% of the time by an average of 10.4 (29-18).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
TEN logo TEN 46%
19 7
NYG logo NYG 54%
19 12
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward235 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.5 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NYG -2.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model NYG -0.7
Sim Prediction: Giants by 0.7
✓ NYG won by 5 (model: NYG by 0.7) TEN +2.5 LOSS Lean Under: 19 pts, under
The sim sides with Giants: a 0.7-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (19-19).
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs John Michael Schmitz Jr. (Giants) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 2.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CIN logo CIN 46%
22 27
PIT logo PIT 54%
21 30
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow307 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.8 rec, 98 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET CIN -3.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model CIN -0.1
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 0.1
✗ PIT won by 3 (model: CIN by 0.1) PIT +3.5 WIN
Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 0.1 and winning 46% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).
D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 45 yds on just 39% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jaquan Brisker, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
SEA logo SEA 90%
26 31
WAS logo WAS 10%
12 33
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold237 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jadarian Price Jadarian Price67 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.3 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -7 O/U 40 vs Model SEA -14.0
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 14.0
✗ WAS won by 2 (model: SEA by 14.0) VALUE SEA -7 LOSS Lean Under: 64 pts, over
The model leans Seahawks by 14.0, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 26-12).
Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 34 yds on just 39% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Josh Jobe (Seahawks) - winner: Josh Jobe, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
ARZ logo ARZ 28%
18 30
SF logo SF 72%
24 36
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy249 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey59 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans5.3 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET SF -8.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model SF -6.9
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 6.9
✓ SF won by 6 (model: SF by 6.9) ARZ +8.5 WIN Lean Under: 66 pts, over
The sim sides with 49ers: a 6.9-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (24-18).
Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 49% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 24.6 pressures a game, Nick Bosa (3.4 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Pressure could be scarce for the Cardinals — a 50% win rate, 5.4 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game — Josh Sweat (2.8 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
MIN logo MIN 48%
18 23
TB logo TB 52%
19 16
PASS Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield226 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson4.8 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET MIN -1.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model TB -0.9
Sim Prediction: Buccaneers by 0.9
✗ MIN won by 7 (model: TB by 0.9) TB +1.5 LOSS Lean Under: 39 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Buccaneers win 52% of them, by 0.9 on average (19-18).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Charles Demmings (Vikings) - winner: Charles Demmings, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
BLT logo BLT 66%
24 34
DAL logo DAL 34%
20 31
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry94 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BLT -3.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model BLT -4.6
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 4.6
✓ BLT won by 3 (model: BLT by 4.6) BLT -3.5 LOSS Lean Under: 65 pts, over
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 66% of them, by 4.6 on average (24-20).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Derrick Henry, 6.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 56% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
LV logo LV 52%
19 35
NO logo NO 48%
21 27
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough289 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty Ashton Jeanty45 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.0 rec, 105 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET NO -3 O/U 44 vs Model NO -1.1
Sim Prediction: Saints by 1.1
✗ LV won by 8 (model: NO by 1.1) LV +3 WIN Lean Under: 62 pts, over
The sim sides with Saints: a 1.1-point edge and a 48% win rate over 50 runs (21-19).
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Justin Reid (Saints) - winner: Justin Reid, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Chris Olave (Saints) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 60% of routes for 9.1/11.4, 90 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
LA logo LA 80%
26 26
DEN logo DEN 20%
16 30
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford258 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua6.7 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET LA -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model LA -10.1
Sim Prediction: Rams by 10.1
✗ DEN won by 4 (model: LA by 10.1) VALUE LA -2.5 LOSS Lean Under: 56 pts, over
The model leans Rams by 10.1, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 26-16).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Alaric Jackson (Rams) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 55% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Sep 28

Mon
PROJ FINAL
PHI logo PHI 60%
23 7
CHI logo CHI 40%
21 27
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts236 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift D'Andre Swift59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith5.2 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET PHI -4.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model PHI -2.4
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 2.4
✗ CHI won by 20 (model: PHI by 2.4) CHI +4.5 WIN Lean Over: 34 pts, under
Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 2.4 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 44 yds on just 39% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →