NFL Week 13 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 13
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
Thursday, Dec 3
Thu
8:15pm
PROJ
KC 22%
LA 78%
PASS
Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.1 TD
Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH
Kenneth Walker III69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Kenneth Walker III69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Puka Nacua8.2 rec, 108 yds, 0.6 TD
Puka Nacua8.2 rec, 108 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 10.7
Full breakdown →
Run it 50 times and Rams win 78% of them, by 10.7 on average (27-17).
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 36 yds on just 39% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Quentin Lake (Rams) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.8 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Sunday, Dec 6
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
DET 72%
ATL 28%
PASS
Jared Goff285 pass yds, 2.4 TD
Jared Goff285 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson100 rush yds, 0.9 TD
Bijan Robinson100 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC
Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 7.4
Full breakdown →
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 7.4 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 31-23).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Chuck Clark (Lions) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Jake Matthews (Falcons) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
JAX 68%
CHI 32%
PASS
Trevor Lawrence252 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Trevor Lawrence252 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Bhayshul Tuten63 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Bhayshul Tuten63 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Parker Washington5.6 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
Parker Washington5.6 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 5.9
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Jaguars: a 5.9-point edge and a 68% win rate over 50 runs (23-17).
Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 50% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 26.1 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (3.5 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Montez Sweat (1.0 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) out front.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
CIN 78%
CLV 22%
PASS
Joe Burrow287 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Joe Burrow287 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.1 TD
Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC
Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 8.2
Full breakdown →
Across 50 simulations, Bengals come out on top 78% of the time by an average of 8.2 (24-15).
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
GB 58%
NO 42%
PASS
Jordan Love320 pass yds, 2.3 TD
Jordan Love320 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH
Alvin Kamara30 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Alvin Kamara30 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Chris Olave7.9 rec, 111 yds, 0.6 TD
Chris Olave7.9 rec, 111 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Packers by 4.2
Full breakdown →
Packers are the pick here, favoured by 4.2 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 26-21).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Martin Emerson Jr., holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Lukas Van Ness (Packers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Lukas Van Ness, winning 56% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
SF 70%
NYG 30%
PASS
Brock Purdy249 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Brock Purdy249 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Mike Evans5.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
Mike Evans5.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 6.8
Full breakdown →
Run it 50 times and 49ers win 70% of them, by 6.8 on average (21-14).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 61% of routes for 6.4/8.5, 68 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
LAC 44%
TB 56%
PASS
Baker Mayfield219 pass yds, 0.9 TD
Baker Mayfield219 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH
Bucky Irving41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Bucky Irving41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
Sim Prediction: Buccaneers by 0.8
Full breakdown →
Buccaneers are the pick here, favoured by 0.8 and winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 18-17).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Antoine Winfield Jr., holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Calijah Kancey (Buccaneers) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Calijah Kancey, winning 55% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
WAS 54%
TEN 46%
PASS
Cam Ward232 pass yds, 1.0 TD
Cam Ward232 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH
Jacory Croskey-Merritt45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Carnell Tate5.5 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
Carnell Tate5.5 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Commanders by 3.8
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Commanders: a 3.8-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (17-14).
Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Sun
4:05pm
PROJ
PHI 64%
ARZ 36%
PASS
Jacoby Brissett248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Jacoby Brissett248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Saquon Barkley56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Saquon Barkley56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Michael Wilson7.3 rec, 82 yds, 0.3 TD
Michael Wilson7.3 rec, 82 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 4.9
Full breakdown →
The model leans Eagles by 4.9, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 22-17).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Tariq Woolen (Eagles) - winner: Tariq Woolen, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Sun
4:05pm
PROJ
MIA 16%
DEN 84%
PASS
Bo Nix226 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Bo Nix226 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.3 TD
J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle6.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
Jaylen Waddle6.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 12.1
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Broncos: a 12.1-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (23-11).
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 57% of reps for 0.6 sacks and 6.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
CAR 54%
MIN 46%
PASS
Bryce Young268 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Bryce Young268 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Aaron Jones46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Aaron Jones46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Tetairoa McMillan6.3 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
Tetairoa McMillan6.3 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 0.2
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Panthers: a 0.2-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (20-20).
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Blake Cashman, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
BUF 34%
NE 66%
PASS
Drake Maye249 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Drake Maye249 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
James Cook64 rush yds, 0.3 TD
James Cook64 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
DJ Moore5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
DJ Moore5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 6.8
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Patriots: a 6.8-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (27-20).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 43 yds on just 39% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Sun
8:20pm
PROJ
HST 40%
PIT 60%
PASS
Aaron Rodgers271 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Aaron Rodgers271 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Jaylen Warren72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Jaylen Warren72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Nico Collins5.7 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
Nico Collins5.7 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 1.9
Full breakdown →
Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 1.9 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Cole Holcomb (Steelers) - winner: Cole Holcomb, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Monday, Dec 7
Mon
8:15pm
PROJ
DAL 50%
SEA 50%
PASS
Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.8 TD
Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH
Javonte Williams56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Javonte Williams56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.4 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.4 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 1.0
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Seahawks: a 1.0-point edge and a 50% win rate over 50 runs (23-22).
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Caleb Downs, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 60% of routes for 10.0/12.0, 91 yds a game - separation all day.
