Arizona has lost three straight and the defense has given up 117 points, and our model has the Cardinals at five wins with Detroit next
Updated
Arizona went to New York and lost 36-24 to the Giants, gave up a pick-six to Jameis Winston's defense late, and fell to 1-3. The Cardinals have now lost three in a row since the Week 1 win in Los Angeles, and the pattern across those three losses is identical: the offense scores enough to compete and the defense cannot stop anyone. When we ran the rest of the season Arizona came out at 5-12 with no meaningful playoff chance, which is where it sat after Week 3 and within a half-win of where it sat in July. The model has not been surprised by the Cardinals. It just has not seen anything to change its mind about them.
The offense has been better than the record suggests. Jacoby Brissett is 103 of 152 for 818 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions, a passer rating of 83, and projects for 4,283 yards and 24 touchdowns across the full year. Michael Wilson has 25 catches for 258 yards and projects for 112 catches and 1,332 yards as the number one. Trey McBride has 33 catches, the most on the team, and projects for 95. Marvin Harrison Jr. projects for 56 catches and 736 yards, a number that keeps drifting down. Jeremiyah Love has 223 rushing yards and projects for 516 on the ground, and he tweaked an ankle in New York, which is the first thing to check this week. The unit projects for 323 points, 24th in the league, up slightly from last week.
The defense is the reason the record is what it is. Arizona has allowed 117 points in four games, 30 or more in each of the last three, and our model projects the unit giving up 452 points, the most in the league, and the most yards in the league. Josh Sweat projects for twelve sacks and Zaven Collins for nine and a half, which is a legitimate pair of edge rushers, and the team projects for 41 sacks, 15th in football. The pass rush is not the problem. The back end is. Budda Baker projects for 95 tackles and Andrew Wingard for 100 from the safety spots, and the fact that both safeties are on pace for triple-digit tackle totals tells you how often the ball is getting past the front seven. The Cardinals project for nine interceptions, 25th.
The division is three good teams and the Cardinals. San Francisco is 4-0 and projects for ten wins. Seattle is 3-1 and projects for ten. The Rams are 2-2 and project for 13 as the title favorite. Arizona has already lost to the 49ers and Seahawks and plays the Rams twice, and when we ran the rest of the season the Cardinals finished last in the NFC West in nearly every simulated year. The Week 1 win over the Chargers is starting to look like the high point.
The next month is as hard as any in the league. Detroit at home at 16 percent, a trip to Los Angeles at ten against the Rams, Denver at home at 32, a trip to Dallas at 26, and a trip to Seattle at 24. When we ran that stretch Arizona went 0-5 more often than any other outcome, and 1-4 was the next most common. A 1-8 record entering November is the most likely path, and it would put the five-win projection on schedule only if the Cardinals win four of their last eight.
The matchup record is a team that keeps showing up and keeps losing. We gave Arizona 20 percent in Los Angeles against the Chargers and the Cardinals won. We gave them 28 against Seattle, 28 in San Francisco and 48 in New York, and they lost all three, the last one a game the model thought was a coin flip. One win from about one and a quarter expected is right on the projection, and the fact that Arizona scored 30 in San Francisco and 24 in New York and still lost both is the clearest picture of the roster. The offense is adequate. The defense is not, and the schedule does not get softer.
The player lines are quiet, which is its own statement. Brissett's projection dropped from 4,455 yards and a 92 rating to 4,283 and 89, with the interception projection up from eleven to 14. Wilson held at 112 catches and McBride at 95. Harrison's projection slipped from 61 catches to 56 and from 819 yards to 736, a slide that has run every week since September. Love's rushing projection climbed from 480 yards to 516 and Allgeier's touchdown line from two to three. On defense, Zaven Collins' sack projection jumped from 7.4 to 9.4, the biggest move on the roster, and Sweat's from 11.1 to 12.2. Budda Baker's interception projection tripled from half a pick to over one and a half. Wingard's tackle projection rose from 95 to 100. The number to watch is the points allowed. Arizona projects for 452, up from 443 a week ago, and each of the last three games has added to it. Detroit's 506-point offense is next.
The market opened Arizona at six and a half wins. Our model sat two under it in July and is a win and a half under it now. The lean is about a defense that has not held a team under 30 since the opener and a schedule with Detroit, the Rams twice, Seattle and Dallas still to come. Brissett has kept the offense functional, Wilson and McBride have been productive, and none of it has mattered. Five wins is the number, and the model has not seen a reason to move it in a month.
