Tampa Bay is 0-4 with Jalon Daniels starting for Mayfield, and our model has the Buccaneers at three wins
Updated
Tampa Bay lost 17-14 at home to Green Bay with Jalon Daniels making his first start in place of Baker Mayfield, and the Buccaneers are 0-4 with four losses by six, four, seven and three points. That is a team that has been in every game and finished none of them, and the model's view has been consistent since September. When we ran the rest of the season Tampa Bay came out at 3-14 with no playoff chance, averaging three wins, which is a fraction below where it sat after Week 3 and two wins below the five we projected in July. The quarterback injury is the thing that separates the two numbers.
Mayfield dislocated his thumb in Week 3 and is expected to miss at least three weeks. He is 61 of 96 for 615 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions across his three games, an 80 rating, and was sacked 13 times, which is the number the offensive line has to answer for. Our model projects him for 3,494 yards and 13 touchdowns across the games it expects him back for. Daniels projects for 173 yards and three interceptions in his stint, which is the model telling you what it thinks of the stopgap. Emeka Egbuka has 15 catches for 154 yards and projects for 76 and 967. Chris Godwin has 16 catches and projects for 75. Cade Otton has 15 and projects for 57. Jalen McMillan is on injured reserve with a sprained PCL and is expected to miss six to eight weeks. Bucky Irving has 241 rushing yards and one touchdown and projects for 600, and Kenneth Gainwell projects for 30 catches as the receiving back. The unit projects for 280 points, 28th in the league.
The defense has been the better half and the model has it as a bottom-five unit anyway. Tampa Bay projects to allow 421 points, 29th in the league, and the fourth-most yards, which is a harsh grade for a unit that has given up 96 points in four games and never more than 33. Yaya Diaby projects for seven sacks. Vita Vea's projection has fallen from seven and a half to five. Al-Quadin Muhammad's has climbed to four. The team projects for under 35 sacks, 28th, and under ten interceptions. Tykee Smith projects for 111 tackles and Antoine Winfield Jr. for 116, which is two safeties on pace for triple digits. Jacob Parrish's interception projection has doubled to two. The unit held Green Bay to 17 and Minnesota to 23 and lost both, which is the Buccaneers' season in one sentence.
The division has a clear order and the Buccaneers are at the bottom of it. Atlanta is 2-2 and projects for eleven wins. Carolina is 2-2 and projects for nine. New Orleans is 1-3 and projects for six. Tampa Bay has lost to Minnesota and Green Bay from the NFC North and has not played a division game yet, which means all six are still ahead of it, and when we ran the rest of the season the Buccaneers finished last in the NFC South in nearly every simulated year.
The next month is where the three wins would have to start. A trip to Dallas at 24 percent, Pittsburgh at home at 30, a trip to Carolina at 34, Atlanta at home at 14, and a trip to Chicago at 18. When we ran that stretch Tampa Bay went 0-5 more often than 1-4, and the Carolina game is the closest thing to a coin flip. An 0-9 record entering November is the most likely path, and the three-win projection depends on Mayfield returning to a schedule that gets softer after that.
The player lines are an offense being rerun around a backup. Mayfield's projection dropped from 3,724 yards to 3,494 and from 15 touchdowns to 13, which is the model adding the missed games, while Daniels' rose from 36 yards to 173 with three interceptions. Egbuka's projection fell from 79 catches to 76 and from 1,026 yards to 967. Godwin's rose from 74 catches to 75 while his yardage dropped from 822 to 787. Hurst's held at 42 catches. Otton's climbed from 55 catches to 57. Irving's rushing projection slipped from 603 to 600 and his touchdown line from three to two. Gainwell's receiving projection dropped from 31 catches to 30. On defense, Diaby's sack projection fell from 7.5 to 7.3, Vea's from 7.5 to 5.1, the biggest move on the roster, and Muhammad's rose from 2.9 to 4.1. Tykee Smith's interception line dropped from 2.5 to 2.2 and his tackle projection rose from 106 to 111. Parrish's interception projection doubled to two. Winfield's tackle projection fell from 120 to 116. The number to watch is Mayfield's return. The three-win projection assumes he is back by Week 7 or 8. Each week beyond that with Daniels under center is a week the model has already written off.
The matchup record is a team that has lost the games it was favored in and the ones it was not. We gave Tampa Bay 16 percent in Cincinnati and the Buccaneers lost by six. We gave them 76 against Cleveland and they lost by four. We gave them 52 against Minnesota and they lost by seven. We gave them 30 against Green Bay and they lost by three. Zero wins from about one and three-quarters expected is a full underperformance, and the Cleveland game is the one that should have been a win. The market opened Tampa Bay at six and a half wins. Our model sat a win and a half under it in July and sits three and a half under it now. The lean is about a quarterback who will miss a month, an offensive line that gave up 13 sacks in three games, and a defense that has kept four games close and not won any of them.
