Tampa Bay lost a shootout in Cincinnati without a touchdown pass, and our model keeps the Buccaneers at five wins
Updated
Baker Mayfield went 23 of 28 for 216 yards in Cincinnati, did not throw a touchdown, did not throw an interception, took four sacks, and Tampa Bay lost 33-27 to the Bengals. That is a strange line, efficient and toothless at the same time, and it is almost exactly the season our model projected for him in July. When we re-ran the year with the result seeded in, the Buccaneers came out at 5-12, the same record we had in the summer, with a two percent playoff chance. The flag we hung on this projection stays up. Week 1 did not tear it down, and it did not justify it either.
The Mayfield regression is still the whole argument. Our model projects him for 3,701 yards and 16 touchdowns against twelve interceptions behind a passer rating near 88, essentially the July line, with another 378 yards and five scores on the ground. The simulation's read is that the 26 touchdowns he threw in 2025 were a peak, and one game of 216 yards without a score against a defense we grade 11th is one small piece of evidence for that read. It is not proof. Twenty-seven points is not a dead offense. But the points came from the running game and the defense rather than the quarterback's arm, and that is the pattern the model expects to continue.
The receiving corps is good enough that the regression stings. Emeka Egbuka caught five for 63 in Cincinnati and now projects for 78 catches and 1,040 yards, up from the 812 we had for him in July, a rookie becoming the number one. Chris Godwin settles at 79 catches for 857 yards. Cade Otton climbs to 53 catches at tight end. Jalen McMillan sat out the opener with a knee injury and projects for 43 catches when he is back. Bucky Irving ran for 45 and a score and projects for 608 yards on the season, which is a modest total for a back with his talent. The offense projects for 299 points, 27th in the league, and the 29th-most yards. That is a bottom-third unit with a promising rookie and a quarterback the model does not expect to bail it out.
The defense does not provide a counterweight, and it gave up 33 to prove it. Our model projects Tampa Bay allowing 404 points, 27th in the league. Yaya Diaby projects for 14 and a half sacks, up from under ten in July, which is the one bright spot on the front. Josiah Trotter had a sack and an interception against Cincinnati. Vita Vea anchors the interior and Antoine Winfield Jr. remains a star at safety. Around them the group is thin, and when we ran the rest of the season the defense could not consistently bail out an offense that had lost its efficiency edge. That is the same sentence we wrote in July, and the Bengals game was the demonstration.
The honest framing is the same as it was. Both units grade in the bottom third, so a below-market projection is defensible on its face. What makes us keep the flag up is the size of the drop from a team that just won its division, and the fact that the drop rests almost entirely on the touchdown regression. Twenty-seven points in Cincinnati was not the performance of a five-win team. Zero touchdown passes from the quarterback was exactly the performance the model expects. Both things are true, and the season will be decided by which one is the trend.
The division cuts against the projection, and Week 1 made it a touch more even. Atlanta lost in Pittsburgh with its third quarterback and slid to ten wins. New Orleans took Detroit to overtime and holds at eight. Carolina gave up 59 and fell to six. When we ran the rest of the season, Tampa Bay finished last in the NFC South in the majority of simulated years, but the gap to Carolina is small and the six divisional games are where the Buccaneers' skill talent can steal wins.
The market opened Tampa Bay around eight and a half wins, and in July we sat more than three under it. We still do. The path to being wrong is clear and it is a strong one. If Mayfield's touchdown rate comes back, if Egbuka is the real thing and Godwin stays healthy, the offense grades far better than 27th and the Buccaneers are right back to eight or nine wins. That is the case against our number, and after a game in which the offense scored 27 without its quarterback throwing a touchdown, it has not gotten weaker.
The next month is the softest stretch on the schedule, and the projection needs Tampa Bay to use it. Cleveland comes to Tampa in Week 2 with the lowest-scoring offense in football, then Minnesota visits with its quarterback situation unsettled, then Green Bay arrives without Parsons or Jacobs, and the Buccaneers go to Dallas in Week 5. When we ran that stretch, Tampa Bay was favored against Cleveland, a coin flip against Minnesota, and a clear underdog to Green Bay and in Dallas, which is a 2-2 month if Mayfield finds the end zone and 1-3 if he does not. Two of those four are games a division winner is supposed to win. If the Buccaneers come out of them 3-1, the five-win projection is wrong and the market was right. If they come out 1-3, the regression is real.
So the read on Tampa Bay is unchanged. A team our model believes overachieved on a career year at quarterback, now due for a correction the roster cannot fully cushion. Week 1 was a loss that looked like a five-win team's defense and a seven-win team's offense, and the projection lands where it did in July. Watch Mayfield's touchdown rate above everything else. On his arm rests the whole season, and after one week he has not thrown one.
