The Giants tied in Washington and lost to New Orleans, and our model has New York at six wins with J.J. McCarthy about to take over
Updated
The Giants tied 27-27 in Washington, lost 34-27 at home to New Orleans, and are 3-2-1, still first in the NFC East on a tiebreaker but with the division's momentum gone. On Wednesday the team confirmed J.J. McCarthy will make his first start against Houston. When we ran the rest of the season New York came out at 6-10-1, averaging six wins, with a 7.5 percent playoff chance, down from 8-9 and 16.5 percent two weeks ago and up from the 4.7 wins the summer sim projected. The model has priced the quarterback change, and it has priced it conservatively, because it has not seen McCarthy throw a pass for the Giants.
That is the whole projection. Jameis Winston is 90 of 158 for 957 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions, a 76 rating, across his five appearances, and the model has him for 163 more attempts, which is the model expecting him to play again at some point. McCarthy projects for 372 attempts, 3,002 yards, 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions behind an 84.5 rating for the rest of the season, a line built from a small Minnesota sample and the positional prior rather than anything he has done in New York. Malik Nabers has 41 catches for 494 yards and projects for 104 catches and 1,409 yards, up from 84 and 1,139. Isaiah Likely has climbed from 62 catches to 81 with nine touchdowns. Cam Skattebo projects for 628 rushing yards. The offense projects for 316 points, 26th in the league.
The defense has given up 140 points in six games and the model has downgraded it after two weeks of 27 and 34. New York projects to allow 387 points, 22nd in the league, up from 362 and 20th. Abdul Carter's sack projection has nearly doubled to 13.3, the largest individual upgrade on any defense this run, and he is now the fifth-highest sack projection in the league. Kayvon Thibodeaux's has halved to under four. Jevon Holland projects for four and a half interceptions and a sack. Dru Phillips' sack projection has gone from near zero to over two and his tackle line from 78 to 96. Arvell Reese projects for 111 tackles. The team projects for 37 sacks, 28th, and twelve interceptions, ninth.
The division is a four-team scramble and the model has the Giants fourth in it despite the record. Philadelphia is 2-4 and projects for nine wins without Jalen Hurts. Dallas is 2-4 and projects for eight. Washington is 1-4-1 and projects for five. New York leads the NFC East by a game and a half and projects to finish last or third in most simulated years, which is the model telling you it believes the two rosters below the Giants in the standings more than the one at the top of them.
The next month is three games and a bye. A trip to Houston at 18 percent for McCarthy's first start, a bye in Week 8, a trip to Philadelphia at 30, and Washington at home at 52. When we ran that stretch the Giants went 1-2 more often than anything else, and the Commanders game is the one the model expects New York to win. A 4-4-1 record entering the second week of November would be ahead of the six-win projection, and the quarterback decides whether the model moves up or down from there.
The fortnight in detail: a 27-27 tie in Washington against a Commanders team playing its first game with Jayden Daniels back, and a 34-27 home loss to New Orleans in which the defense gave up 34 to a Saints offense that had scored 13 the week before. Winston threw for 957 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions across his five appearances, and the team decided this week that was enough. The model's move was mostly the quarterback change and partly the defense. McCarthy's line is a placeholder built from a small Minnesota sample and the positional prior, and 14 touchdowns against 14 interceptions is what the model produces for a quarterback it has not seen in this offense. The defense fell from 20th to 22nd in points allowed, which is the Saints game. Carter's sack projection nearly doubling to 13.3 is the one line that moved sharply the right way, and he is now the fifth-highest sack projection in football. Nabers' projection rose 20 catches and 270 yards, which is the model expecting the new quarterback to throw to him. What moves the number from here is Sunday in Houston at 18 percent, McCarthy's first start against the second-best pass rush in football. The model will reprice him after it, and the direction depends on 60 minutes it has not seen yet.
The matchup record is a team that outperformed the model for a month and has come back to it. We gave New York 20 percent against Dallas, four in Los Angeles, 54 against Tennessee, 52 against Arizona, 60 in Washington and 54 against New Orleans. Three wins and a tie from about two and a half expected is still ahead, but the last two results were a tie and a loss in games the model had the Giants winning. The market opened New York around six wins. Our model sat well under it in July, two over it two weeks ago, and on it now. The lean is gone and the reason is a quarterback the model has not priced yet. Sunday in Houston is where it starts.
