Jacksonville gave up 34 at home to Houston and is 4-2, and our model has the Jaguars at eleven wins with the title odds halved to 8.5 percent
Updated
Jacksonville beat Philadelphia 19-17 at home, then gave up 34 points at home to Houston and lost 34-31, and the Jaguars are 4-2 with a two-game lead in the AFC South. When we ran the rest of the season Jacksonville came out at 11-6 with a 94.5 percent playoff chance and an 8.5 percent title chance, down from 12-5, 97 percent and 15.5 percent two weeks ago. A defense that had allowed 53 points in four games allowed 51 in two, and the model has priced that at what two weeks is worth now that it leans harder on this season's snaps.
The defense is still the best in football by projection and the margin has narrowed. Jacksonville projects to allow 294 points, the fewest in the league, up from 256 two weeks ago, and Kansas City at 306 is now within reach. The Jaguars project for nearly 17 interceptions, second in football, with Jourdan Lewis at nearly three, Ventrell Miller at over two and a half plus 105 tackles, and Foyesade Oluokun at over two. Josh Hines-Allen's sack projection has dropped from 15.4 to 12.2 and Travon Walker's from 10.6 to under ten, which is the edge pair the model has cooled on most. The team projects for 40 sacks, 19th, down from ninth. Travis Hunter projects for two interceptions on defense and 44 catches on offense.
The offense has been better than the summer grade and the model keeps upgrading it. Trevor Lawrence is 120 of 184 for 1,480 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, a 106 rating, and projects for 4,261 yards and 32 touchdowns, up from 3,950 and 28. Parker Washington projects for 86 catches and 1,318 yards, up from 78 and 1,156. Brenton Strange has climbed to 65 catches. Jakobi Meyers projects for 62. Bhayshul Tuten projects for 944 rushing yards and 23 catches, with the receiving line up sharply. Hunter has 44 projected catches and 530 yards as his two-way role has tilted further toward offense. The unit projects for 405 points, seventh in the league.
The division is still Jacksonville's and it is no longer a formality. Houston is 2-4 and projects for nine wins with the head-to-head banked after Sunday. Indianapolis is 2-4 and projects for six. Tennessee is 1-5 and projects for three. The Jaguars are two games clear of the Texans with the rematch in Houston still to come, and when we ran the rest of the season Jacksonville won the AFC South in a clear majority of simulated years, down from the large majority it held two weeks ago.
The next month is a bye and three games. Week 7 off, Indianapolis at home at 80 percent, a trip to Baltimore at 50, and a trip to Tennessee at 80. When we ran that stretch the Jaguars went 2-1 more often than anything else, and the Baltimore game, with Lamar Jackson possibly back, is the one the model treats as the AFC's best matchup before Thanksgiving. A 6-3 record entering the second week of November would keep eleven wins on schedule.
The fortnight in detail: a 19-17 home win over Philadelphia in which the defense held the Eagles to 17, and a 34-31 home loss to Houston in which the defense gave up 34 to a Texans offense that had scored 26 or fewer in three of its first five games. The Houston game is the one that moved the projection. A defense that had allowed 53 points in four games allowed 34 in one, at home, to a division rival, and the model moved its points-allowed projection from 256 to 294 in a fortnight, which is still first in the league but no longer by a distance. Hines-Allen's sack projection fell three, Walker's fell nearly one, and the team's sack projection fell from ninth to 19th, which is the pass rush cooling off at the same time the back end gave up its first big game. The offense moved the other way: Lawrence's touchdown projection rose four, Washington's yardage rose 162, and the points-for projection rose four. What moves the number from here is the bye, then Indianapolis at home and Baltimore on the road. The Colts game is a game the model expects Jacksonville to win comfortably. The Ravens game, with Lamar Jackson possibly back, is a coin flip between two of the four best rosters in the conference, and the result decides whether the Jaguars are a top-two seed or a wild card team.
The matchup record is clean. We gave Jacksonville 90 percent against Cleveland, 68 in Denver, 62 against New England, 52 in Cincinnati, 76 against Philadelphia and 48 against Houston. Four wins from nearly four expected is right on the projection, and the Houston loss was a game the model had as a coin flip. The market opened Jacksonville at nine wins. Our model sat on it in July, three over it two weeks ago, and two and a half over it now. It is still one of the larger leans on the board. The read is a top-four roster with the best defense in football and a quarterback at a 106 rating. The 51 points allowed in two weeks are the first mark against it all season.
