Jacksonville blew out Cleveland, and our model now calls the Jaguars the second-best team in the AFC
Updated
In July we called Jacksonville a mild over, a balanced roster with a healthy Trevor Lawrence and a takeaway defense that our model nudged to ten wins in a division without a runaway favorite. Then the Jaguars beat Cleveland 34-10 in a game that was decided before halftime, with Trevor Lawrence throwing four touchdowns on 23 attempts, Houston lost a shootout to Buffalo, Indianapolis gave up 41 to Baltimore, and when we re-ran the season the AFC South suddenly had a runaway favorite. Jacksonville comes out at 12-5 with an 89 percent playoff chance and an eight percent shot at the title, and when we ran the rest of the season the Jaguars finished with one of the two or three best records in the conference.
Lawrence is the reason the ceiling moved. Our model now projects 4,147 yards and 28 touchdowns against ten interceptions behind a passer rating near 103, up from the 24 scores and 93.6 rating we had for him in the summer, with another 341 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. That is not a quality starter running an offense with weapons. That is a franchise quarterback playing at the top of the position, and one clean, efficient afternoon against a solid Cleveland defense was enough for the model to move him from the first category to the second.
The weapons are doing their part. Brian Thomas Jr. holds at 79 catches for 1,079 yards as the number one. Parker Washington's projection jumped from 54 catches to 65 for 978 yards and six scores, a slot receiver becoming a genuine second option. Brenton Strange climbs from 38 catches to 54 for 620 yards and seven touchdowns, a red zone weapon emerging at tight end. Bhayshul Tuten carries the ground game at 798 yards. The offense projects for 396 points, eighth in the league, up from the middle-of-the-pack figure we had in July.
The defense is where the projection turned from good to frightening. In July we graded the unit 15th and leaned on its takeaway rate. After Week 1 our model has Jacksonville allowing 280 points, third in the league, and generating nearly 54 sacks, second in football, with 15 interceptions, also second. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker each had two sacks against Cleveland. Hines-Allen projects for 21 on the season and Walker's line jumped from under nine to 14. Antonio Johnson projects for five interceptions and 118 tackles from the back end, and Foyesade Oluokun, who picked off Deshaun Watson on Sunday and barely registered in the summer run, now projects for 106 tackles and three interceptions in the middle. A defense that gets home from both edges and takes the ball away at this rate does not need the offense to be spectacular. It has a spectacular offense anyway.
The division is the reason twelve wins comes with a title attached. Houston lost at home to Buffalo and our model trimmed the Texans to 10-7. Indianapolis gave up 41 to Baltimore and dropped from eleven wins to nine. Tennessee lost to the Jets and projects for three. When we ran the rest of the season, Jacksonville finished ahead of Houston far more often than behind it, and the two Houston games, which looked like a coin flip in July, now lean toward the Jaguars.
The market opened Jacksonville around nine wins, and in July our model was a win above it. Now it is nearly three above, and that is a gap worth being honest about. Part of it is Lawrence outrunning his grade in Week 1. Part of it is the defense generating pressure and takeaways at a rate that is partly good and partly fortunate. And part of it is the division collapsing around the Jaguars in the same weekend. When a projection moves this far this fast, the responsible read is that the direction is earned and the magnitude is aggressive, and that is the read here.
The path to being wrong runs through the run defense and the quarterback's health, as it did in the summer. Devin Lloyd is gone and the front will be tested by the ground games in this division. If Lawrence misses time, a team that leans on its quarterback and its takeaways loses both at once. Neither risk is trivial. But the upside if both hold is no longer a division title. It is a bye.
The next month is where the projection earns or loses its flag. Jacksonville goes to Denver in Week 2 for a game between the two teams our model now has as the top of the AFC, then hosts New England, goes to Cincinnati in Week 4 for a matchup of two twelve-win projections, and hosts Philadelphia and the best defense in football in Week 5. When we ran that stretch, the Jaguars were favored against New England and Philadelphia and a slight underdog in Denver and Cincinnati, which is a 2-2 month against the hardest four-game run any team faces. Come out of it 3-1 and the twelve-win projection is conservative. Come out 1-3 and the July version of this team, a mild over at ten wins, was the right one.
So the read on Jacksonville is a team that arrived faster than even an optimistic July preview expected. A franchise quarterback playing like one, a breakout second receiver, and a defense that turned from opportunistic to dominant in our numbers. We take the over and we take it big, with the flag up on the size of the move rather than the direction of it.
