Chicago beat the Jets with Tyson Bagent starting and is 3-1, and our model has the Bears at ten wins while Caleb Williams heals
Updated
Chicago beat the Jets 23-12 at home with Tyson Bagent at quarterback, its third win in four games, and the Bears are 3-1 with two of those wins coming without Caleb Williams. When we ran the rest of the season Chicago came out at 10-7 with a 61 percent playoff chance, up from 9.6 wins and 53.5 percent after Week 3. The projection has climbed every week since July, when the model had the Bears at eight wins and a 30 percent playoff chance, and it has done so while the starting quarterback has spent two of the four weeks on the sideline. Williams has a grade two hamstring strain and is week to week. Bagent is expected to start in Green Bay.
The running game is the reason the offense has survived the quarterback situation. D'Andre Swift has 311 rushing yards and three touchdowns and projects for 1,100 yards and seven scores. Kyle Monangai has 324 yards and three touchdowns on 60 carries and his projection has climbed from 576 yards to 715. He is day to day with a thumb injury and is expected to play. Williams is 36 of 55 for 407 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in his two games, and the model has trimmed his projection to 3,367 yards and 19 touchdowns as the number of games it expects him to miss has grown. Bagent went 30 of 43 for 322 yards without a touchdown across his two games and projects for 444 yards in relief. Rome Odunze projects for 82 catches and 1,244 yards. Kalif Raymond has 21 catches and projects for 58. Luther Burden III has 19 and projects for 68. The unit projects for 410 points, seventh in the league.
The defense is where the model has moved most since the summer, and the Jets game was another piece of evidence. Chicago has allowed 65 points in four games, second-fewest in the NFC behind Minnesota, and our model projects the unit giving up 343 points, twelfth in the league. The takeaways are the engine. The Bears project for 13.6 interceptions, fifth in football. Montez Sweat projects for 13.4 sacks. Dayo Odeyingbo has three sacks and projects for over ten. Devin Bush projects for 106 tackles and over two picks. Tyrique Stevenson projects for 91 stops from corner. The team projects for 40 sacks, 18th, which is the one middling number. A unit that gave up 37 to Carolina in Week 1 has allowed 28 in three games since, and the grade has followed.
The division is the tightest in the conference. Minnesota is 4-0 and projects for nine wins. Detroit is 2-2 and projects for 13. Green Bay is 2-2 and projects for eight. Chicago is a game behind the Vikings with the head-to-head already lost, 3-9 at home in Week 2, and has not played the Lions or Packers. When we ran the rest of the season the Bears finished second in the NFC North more often than any other spot, behind Detroit, which puts them in the wild card race rather than the division one. The Lions games in November and December are where that changes if it changes.
The next month has three road games and two coin flips. A trip to Green Bay at 52 percent, a trip to Atlanta at 28, New England at home at 48, a trip to Seattle at 50, and Tampa Bay at home at 82. When we ran that stretch Chicago went 3-2 more often than anything else, and the Atlanta game is the one the model treats as a loss. A 6-3 record entering November, with Williams presumably back by then, would push the projection toward eleven.
The player lines are a roster being rerun around a backup quarterback. Williams' projection dropped from 3,677 yards to 3,367 and from 21 touchdowns to 19, with his rushing line down from 523 yards to 490, which is the model adding missed games rather than downgrading the player. Bagent's projection rose from 54 yards to 444. Monangai's rushing projection climbed from 576 to 715 and his touchdown line from three to six. Swift's touchdown projection dropped from nine to seven. Raymond's projection fell from 61 catches to 58 and Odunze's held at 82. Loveland's touchdown line dropped from five to four. On defense, Sweat's sack projection fell from 14.4 to 13.4 and Odeyingbo's rose from 9.9 to 10.3. Devin Bush's sack line went from under one to 1.5 while his tackle projection dropped from 113 to 106. Stevenson's held at 91 tackles. The number to watch is Williams' return date. The ten-win projection assumes he is back by mid-October. Each additional week with Bagent costs the model about a quarter of a win, and the Green Bay and Atlanta games are the two it would rather he played.
The matchup record has been slightly better than the projection. We gave Chicago 62 percent in Carolina and the Bears won by 22. We gave them 68 against Minnesota and they lost 9-3. We gave them 40 against Philadelphia and they won by 20. We gave them 74 against the Jets and they won by eleven. Three wins from about two and a half expected is a half-win ahead, and the Eagles game is the one that moved the grade. The market opened Chicago at nine wins. Our model sat nearly a win under it in July and sits a win over it now. The lean is the defense and the running game, which have carried a backup quarterback to two wins in two starts. If Williams returns in mid-October to a 5-2 team, the ceiling is higher than ten.
