NFL Week 16 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

2026 Season · Week 16

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

Thursday, Dec 24

Thu 8:15pm

PROJ

HST 58%

PHI 42%

PASS

C.J. Stroud252 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

Saquon Barkley39 rush yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Nico Collins5.1 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD

Sim Prediction: Texans by 2.7

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 2.7 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).

David Montgomery (Texans) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - running into a wall.

Full breakdown →

Friday, Dec 25

Fri 1:00pm

PROJ

GB 54%

CHI 46%

PASS

Jordan Love282 pass yds, 1.8 TD

RUSH

D'Andre Swift56 rush yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Christian Watson6.5 rec, 94 yds, 0.7 TD

Sim Prediction: Packers by 1.1

Packers are the pick here, favoured by 1.1 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).

MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Tyrique Stevenson (Bears) - winner: Tyrique Stevenson, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - running into a wall.

Full breakdown →

Fri 4:30pm

PROJ

BUF 32%

DEN 68%

PASS

Bo Nix265 pass yds, 1.7 TD

RUSH

James Cook62 rush yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Jaylen Waddle7.1 rec, 101 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Broncos by 6.0

Across 50 simulations, Broncos come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 6.0 (25-19).

Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Spencer Brown (Bills) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 55% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.

Deone Walker (Bills) vs Ben Powers (Broncos) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 57% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.

Full breakdown →

Fri 8:15pm

PROJ

LA 84%

SEA 16%

PASS

Matthew Stafford285 pass yds, 1.7 TD

RUSH

Kyren Williams75 rush yds, 0.6 TD

REC

Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 96 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Rams by 8.1

Run it 50 times and Rams win 84% of them, by 8.1 on average (24-16).

Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.

Full breakdown →

Sunday, Dec 27

Sun 12:00am

PROJ

TB 20%

ATL 80%

PASS

Baker Mayfield238 pass yds, 1.3 TD

RUSH

Bijan Robinson106 rush yds, 1.3 TD

REC

Drake London6.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.6 TD

Sim Prediction: Falcons by 11.5

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 80% of them, by 11.5 on average (29-17).

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.

Drake London (Falcons) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 8.3/10.2, 72 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.

Full breakdown →

Sun 12:00am

PROJ

CIN 68%

IND 32%

PASS

Joe Burrow331 pass yds, 2.5 TD

RUSH

Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.7 TD

REC

Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 106 yds, 0.6 TD

Sim Prediction: Bengals by 5.9

The model leans Bengals by 5.9, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 29-23).

Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Tanor Bortolini (Colts) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 1.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.

Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 61% of routes for 5.9/7.8, 65 yds a game - money in this spot.

Full breakdown →

Sun 12:00am

PROJ

WAS 26%

MIN 74%

PASS

Kyler Murray200 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Aaron Jones49 rush yds, 0.1 TD

REC

Justin Jefferson4.4 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD

Sim Prediction: Vikings by 6.4

Vikings are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 21-14).

Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Josh Conerly Jr. (Commanders) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 55% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 8.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.

Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 28 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.

Full breakdown →

Sun 12:00am

PROJ

CAR 42%

PIT 58%

PASS

Aaron Rodgers251 pass yds, 1.3 TD

RUSH

Jaylen Warren68 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

D.K. Metcalf6.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Steelers by 3.5

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 58% of them, by 3.5 on average (20-17).

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.4 yds a carry - running downhill all day.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

CLV 12%

BLT 88%

PASS

Lamar Jackson194 pass yds, 1.4 TD

RUSH

Derrick Henry68 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Zay Flowers4.8 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Ravens by 12.3

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 88% of them, by 12.3 on average (24-11).

Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.

Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Cam Jurgens (Ravens) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 56% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 4.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

LAC 78%

MIA 22%

PASS

Justin Herbert218 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Omarion Hampton50 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Ladd McConkey4.6 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD

Sim Prediction: Chargers by 10.2

Chargers are the pick here, favoured by 10.2 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 20-10).

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Tony Jefferson, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.

Scott Matlock (Chargers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Scott Matlock, winning 57% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 3.2 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

ARZ 42%

NO 58%

PASS

Tyler Shough331 pass yds, 2.2 TD

RUSH

Alvin Kamara25 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Chris Olave8.8 rec, 128 yds, 0.7 TD

Sim Prediction: Saints by 2.5

Run it 50 times and Saints win 58% of them, by 2.5 on average (25-22).

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: Denzel Burke, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - nowhere to run.

Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Martin Emerson Jr., holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - no daylight all game.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

NE 48%

NYJ 52%

PASS

Drake Maye209 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Breece Hall66 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Jets by 0.5

The model leans Jets by 0.5, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 19-18).

Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Ben Brown (Patriots) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 56% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 4.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:05pm

PROJ

TEN 28%

LV 72%

PASS

Kirk Cousins271 pass yds, 1.6 TD

RUSH

Ashton Jeanty44 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Tre Tucker6.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Raiders by 8.1

Across 50 simulations, Raiders come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 8.1 (23-15).

Maxx Crosby (Raiders) vs JC Latham (Titans) - winner: Maxx Crosby, winning 56% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 9.6 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: Alontae Taylor, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

SF 38%

KC 62%

PASS

Brock Purdy238 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Kenneth Walker III76 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Mike Evans4.5 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 4.1

The model leans Chiefs by 4.1, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 22-18).

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.

Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Connor Colby (49ers) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 57% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.

Full breakdown →

Sun 8:20pm

PROJ

JAX 64%

DAL 36%

PASS

Trevor Lawrence282 pass yds, 1.5 TD

RUSH

Bhayshul Tuten65 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Parker Washington5.3 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 2.1

The sim sides with Jaguars: a 2.1-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (24-22).

Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 55% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 8.6 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Foyesade Oluokun, holding him to 19 yds on just 36% open, 0.3 INT a game, - a window that never opens.

Full breakdown →