Las Vegas has stars at the skill spots and a defense in tatters, and our model splits the difference
Updated
The Raiders are a fascinating study in imbalance, a roster with genuine star power at a few spots and a defense our model ranks dead last in the league. When we ran the simulations, Las Vegas came out around six wins, right on top of the market, a number that captures a team good enough to be fun and flawed enough to stay out of the playoff race. This is a squad that will win some shootouts and lose a lot of them, and the projection reflects exactly that push and pull.
The additions on offense are real, and they raise the floor. Kirk Cousins arrives to stabilize the quarterback position, and our model projects a bounce back to 4,427 yards and 25 touchdowns, a massive step up on his 2025 line as a backup. Cousins is not a franchise saver, but he is a competent veteran who will get the ball to a talented group of weapons, and that alone is an upgrade on what Las Vegas has trotted out recently. When we ran the season, he kept the offense functional and occasionally dangerous.
The skill talent is where the fun lives. Brock Bowers is already one of the best tight ends in football, a projected 81 catches for better than 850 yards and seven scores, a matchup nightmare who wins against linebackers and safeties alike. Tre Tucker has emerged as a legitimate deep threat at 89 grabs and better than 1,000 yards. And rookie back Ashton Jeanty is the crown jewel, a bell cow runner who dominated college football and gives the Raiders an offensive identity. This is a genuinely entertaining group, and it is the reason the projection is not lower.
The defense, though, is a genuine problem, and it is the anchor dragging this team down. Our grade slots the unit 32nd in the entire league, and the offseason did real damage. Las Vegas lost linebackers Devin White and Elandon Roberts, safety Jamal Adams, and edge depth in Tyree Wilson and Charles Snowden. What remains is thin behind a couple of quality pieces, and when we ran the simulations the Raiders surrendered better than 400 points, one of the worst marks in the league. A defense this porous puts a ceiling on everything.
Maxx Crosby is the one thing keeping the unit from being a total wreck. He is a relentless, elite edge rusher who wins his matchup on nearly every snap, and he will produce sacks and havoc no matter what happens around him. But one great pass rusher cannot cover for a bottom tier back seven, and when we ran the season, opponents simply threw around Crosby and picked apart a secondary that lacks the bodies to hold up. He is a star stuck on a unit that cannot support him.
The math is the math of a team that has to win shootouts, and shootouts are a coin flip. A competent offense with real weapons can hang points, but a last ranked defense means the opponent hangs them right back, and the game comes down to whoever has the ball last. When we ran the simulations, Las Vegas won some of those track meets and lost more, which is precisely how a six win season gets built. The offense keeps them competitive. The defense keeps them home in January.
Our number and the market agree, which makes this an easy read to trust. Vegas sees a rebuilding team hovering below .500, and our model lands in the same place. When both the grades and the betting line point to six wins, the honest thing is to take the number and move on. The Raiders are not a playoff team this year. They are a team laying a foundation with some exciting pieces, and the record will reflect the work still left to do on defense.
The path to more is the offense outrunning its grade. If Jeanty is an instant star, if Bowers and Tucker force defenses to account for them on every snap, if Cousins plays cleaner than expected, Las Vegas could push toward eight wins and make some noise. The skill talent is good enough to carry a few extra games if it clicks all at once. That is the optimistic case, and it is not empty, because this offense has genuine playmakers.
The path to less is the defense collapsing entirely. If the pass rush cannot generate pressure beyond Crosby and the secondary gets shredded weekly, the Raiders could slide toward four or five wins and a top ten draft pick. A 32nd ranked defense has a real floor beneath it, and against a tough schedule, the bottom could fall out. That downside risk is why six, rather than eight, is the honest middle.
So the read is a team that is more fun than good, with stars at the skill spots and a defense that needs a full rebuild. When we ran the season, Las Vegas was competitive and flawed, the kind of team that ruins a contender's afternoon one week and gets run off the field the next. We will take the number at face value and call the Raiders a work in progress, worth watching for Jeanty and Bowers, not yet worth backing for wins.
There is a foundation here, and it starts with the skill talent and Crosby. But foundations take time, and a defense ranked last in the league does not fix itself in one offseason. When we ran the simulations, the Raiders looked like a team a year or two from relevance, entertaining in spurts and overmatched too often. Our model sees six wins, the market sees the same, and both are telling you the same thing. Enjoy the stars, temper the expectations.
