Las Vegas lost to Kansas City by three and is 3-1 with Kirk Cousins at eleven touchdown passes, and our model has the Raiders at nine wins
Updated
Las Vegas lost 30-27 at home to Kansas City, the Raiders' first defeat after three wins to open the season, and the loss did not move the model's view much. When we ran the rest of the season Las Vegas came out at 9-8 with a 54.5 percent playoff chance, up a fraction from nine wins and 40 percent after Week 3 and three full wins above the six the summer sim projected. A three-point loss to the division's best team as a 30 percent underdog is close to what the model expected. The playoff odds climbed because the AFC's wild card picture softened around the Raiders while they were busy playing the Chiefs tough.
The quarterback has been the story since September and the numbers keep supporting it. Kirk Cousins is 93 of 144 for 1,026 yards with eleven touchdowns and four interceptions, a 99.5 rating through four games, and our model projects him for 4,268 yards and 30 touchdowns, up from 28 a week ago. Eleven touchdown passes in four games is the most in the league. Tre Tucker has 15 catches for 233 yards and projects for 90 catches and 1,184 yards. Brock Bowers has 16 catches for 202 yards and two touchdowns in two games since returning and projects for 72 catches and eight scores, up from 70 and seven. Michael Mayer has 20 catches. The running game has been the weak spot. Ashton Jeanty has 264 yards on 78 carries, under three and a half a carry, with no rushing touchdowns, though he has two receiving scores. He projects for 843 rushing yards and 59 catches. The unit projects for 401 points, ninth in the league.
The defense has been better than the yardage suggests and worse than the pass rush suggests. Las Vegas projects to allow 376 points, 22nd in the league, and the sixth-most yards. The front is the strength. Maxx Crosby has three sacks and projects for 15.5. Kwity Paye has three and projects for nearly eleven. Malcolm Koonce has three. The team projects for 49 sacks, fourth in football. The back end is where the Chiefs did their damage. Hezekiah Masses has three interceptions in four games and projects for three more. Nakobe Dean projects for 109 tackles and Jeremy Chinn for 113, which is a lot of tackling from a safety. The unit gave up 30 to Kansas City and 27 to New Orleans, and both of those were games the pass rush got home and the coverage did not hold.
The division is Kansas City's by the model's reckoning, and the Raiders are the second team in it. The Chiefs are 4-0 and project for twelve wins with the head-to-head already banked. Denver is 2-2 and projects for nine, level with Las Vegas. The Chargers are 0-4 and project for six. When we ran the rest of the season the Raiders won the AFC West in a small minority of simulated years and reached the playoffs as a wild card far more often, which is a change from July, when they reached the playoffs in one percent of them.
The next month is a stretch of coin flips. A trip to New England at 52 percent, Buffalo at home at 46, the Rams at home at 20, a trip to the Jets at 44, and a trip to San Francisco at 52. When we ran that stretch Las Vegas went 2-3 more often than anything else, and the Rams game is the only one the model treats as a clear loss. A 5-4 record entering November would keep nine wins on schedule and the wild card coin flip intact.
The player lines are a passing game the model keeps upgrading and a running game it has stopped waiting on. Cousins' projection climbed from 4,033 yards to 4,268 and from 28 touchdowns to 30, with his interception line down from 14 to 13 and his rushing projection cut from 43 yards to eleven, which is the model noticing he does not move. Jeanty's rushing projection rose from 780 to 843 and his receiving line from 53 catches to 59. Mike Washington Jr.'s rushing projection dropped from 453 to 437. Tucker's slipped from 92 catches to 90. Bowers' climbed from 70 catches to 72 and from 808 yards to 870. Nailor's dropped from 55 catches to 49. On defense, Crosby's sack projection rose from 15.2 to 15.5, Paye's dropped from eleven to 10.8, and Masses' interception line climbed from three to 3.1. Dean's tackle projection fell from 112 to 109. The number to watch is Jeanty's yards per carry. Three and four-tenths is the number, and the model's 843-yard projection assumes it does not improve much. If it does, nine wins is low.
The matchup record has been very good and it is the reason the projection has climbed three wins since the summer. We gave Las Vegas 46 percent against Miami and the Raiders won by 14. We gave them 20 in Los Angeles against the Chargers and they won by twelve. We gave them 52 in New Orleans and they won by eight. We gave them 30 against Kansas City and they lost by three. Three wins from about one and a half expected is among the largest overperformances in the league, and the Chargers game is the one that changed the model's mind most. The market opened Las Vegas at six and a half wins. Our model sat a half-win under it in July and sits two and a half over it now. The lean is the quarterback and the pass rush. The ground game and the secondary are the reasons it stops at nine.
