NFL Week 5 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 5

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

MODEL THIS WEEK 9-6 straight up 9-6 ATS 3-2 value picks 0-1 best bets 15 of 15 played
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Thursday, Oct 8

Thu
PROJ FINAL
TB logo TB 24%
16 24
DAL logo DAL 76%
26 16
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott278 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams48 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DAL -8.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model DAL -9.7
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 9.7
✗ TB won by 8 (model: DAL by 9.7) DAL -8.5 LOSS Lean Under: 40 pts, under
The sim sides with Cowboys: a 9.7-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (26-16).
Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) - winner: Joey Porter Jr., holding him to 41 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Ameer Speed (Cowboys) - winner: Ameer Speed, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 11

Sun
PROJ FINAL
PHI logo PHI 24%
14 17
JAX logo JAX 76%
21 19
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence208 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET JAX -7.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model JAX -7.2
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 7.2
✓ JAX won by 2 (model: JAX by 7.2) PHI +7.5 WIN Lean Under: 36 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 76% of them, by 7.2 on average (21-14).
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Bhayshul Tuten, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CIN logo CIN 84%
28 31
MIA logo MIA 16%
16 24
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow305 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II Ollie Gordon II46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET CIN -7.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model CIN -12.0
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 12.0
✓ CIN won by 7 (model: CIN by 12.0) CIN -7.5 LOSS Lean Over: 55 pts, over
The model leans Bengals by 12.0, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 28-16).
Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs JuJu Brents (Dolphins) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 63% of routes for 8.8/11.3, 78 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Jason Marshall Jr. (Dolphins) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 65% of routes for 5.6/7.1, 60 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
LV logo LV 52%
22 17
NE logo NE 48%
23 45
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye250 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty Ashton Jeanty60 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs Romeo Doubs5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET NE -4 O/U 45 vs Model NE -1.6
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 1.6
✓ NE won by 28 (model: NE by 1.6) LV +4 LOSS
Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 48% of the time by an average of 1.6 (23-22).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 37 yds on just 39% open, 1.1 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Jalen Nailor (Raiders) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 21 yds on just 33% open, 0.9 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
MIN logo MIN 62%
21 23
NO logo NO 38%
19 13
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough281 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones Aaron Jones48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.2 rec, 103 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET MIN -2 O/U 42 vs Model MIN -2.6
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 2.6
✓ MIN won by 10 (model: MIN by 2.6) MIN -2 WIN Lean Under: 36 pts, under
Vikings are the pick here, favoured by 2.6 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).
Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 56% of reps for 2.8 sacks and 7.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Blake Cashman, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CLV logo CLV 22%
11 12
NYJ logo NYJ 78%
20 17
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith197 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall56 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Denzel Boston Denzel Boston4.8 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET NYJ -2.5 O/U 40 vs Model NYJ -9.2
Sim Prediction: Jets by 9.2
✓ NYJ won by 5 (model: NYJ by 9.2) VALUE NYJ -2.5 WIN Lean Under: 29 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Jets win 78% of them, by 9.2 on average (20-11).
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
IND logo IND 30%
19 22
PIT logo PIT 70%
24 34
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers268 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren79 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf6.6 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET PIT -2.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model PIT -4.8
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 4.8
✓ PIT won by 12 (model: PIT by 4.8) PIT -2.5 WIN Lean Under: 56 pts, over
Run it 50 times and Steelers win 70% of them, by 4.8 on average (24-19).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 6.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
HST logo HST 82%
22 26
TEN logo TEN 18%
12 3
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud273 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins6.1 rec, 92 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET HST -7 O/U 37.5 vs Model HST -9.4
Sim Prediction: Texans by 9.4
✓ HST won by 23 (model: HST by 9.4) HST -7 WIN Lean Under: 29 pts, under
The model leans Texans by 9.4, winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 22-12).
Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: Alontae Taylor, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NYG logo NYG 60%
20 27
WAS logo WAS 40%
17 27
PASS Jayden Daniels Jayden Daniels238 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers4.9 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET WAS -3.5 O/U 43 vs Model NYG -3.1
Sim Prediction: Giants by 3.1
✗ Tie (model: NYG by 3.1) VALUE NYG +3.5 WIN Lean Under: 54 pts, over
Giants are the pick here, favoured by 3.1 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 20-17).
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: Greg Newsome II, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Nick Cross (Commanders) - winner: Nick Cross, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
DEN logo DEN 50%
16 23
LAC logo LAC 50%
19 17
PASS Justin Herbert Justin Herbert224 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.2 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DEN -3.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model LAC -2.8
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 2.8
✗ DEN won by 6 (model: LAC by 2.8) VALUE LAC +3.5 LOSS Lean Under: 40 pts, under
Chargers are the pick here, favoured by 2.8 and winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).
Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 56% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
DET logo DET 84%
32 45
ARZ logo ARZ 16%
20 21
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett301 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Michael Wilson Michael Wilson7.3 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DET -5.5 O/U 54.5 vs Model DET -12.6
Sim Prediction: Lions by 12.6
✓ DET won by 24 (model: DET by 12.6) VALUE DET -5.5 WIN Lean Under: 66 pts, over
The sim sides with Lions: a 12.6-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (32-20).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Mack Wilson Sr. (Cardinals) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CHI logo CHI 52%
22 7
GB logo GB 48%
21 31
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love271 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift D'Andre Swift57 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.4 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model CHI -1.1
Sim Prediction: Bears by 1.1
✗ GB won by 24 (model: CHI by 1.1) GB +2.5 WIN Lean Under: 38 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Bears win 52% of them, by 1.1 on average (22-21).
Montez Sweat (Bears) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Montez Sweat, winning 57% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: Devin Bush, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
SF logo SF 36%
17 32
SEA logo SEA 64%
21 29
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold228 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.7 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -3 O/U 46.5 vs Model SEA -3.6
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 3.6
✗ SF won by 3 (model: SEA by 3.6) SEA -3 LOSS Lean Under: 61 pts, over
Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 3.6 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 21-17).
Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Connor Colby (49ers) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 56% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 9.5/11.1, 76 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →
Sun
PROJ FINAL
BLT logo BLT 54%
20 30
ATL logo ATL 46%
19 23
PASS Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson228 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson89 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.8 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET ATL -3.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model BLT -0.5
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 0.5
✓ BLT won by 7 (model: BLT by 0.5) BLT +3.5 WIN Lean Under: 53 pts, over
The model leans Ravens by 0.5, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 20-19).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs CJ Henderson (Falcons) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 63% of routes for 5.1/7.6, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 12

Mon
PROJ FINAL
BUF logo BUF 8%
15 37
LA logo LA 92%
32 34
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford304 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams90 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.3 rec, 100 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET LA -3.5 O/U 54.5 vs Model LA -17.0
Sim Prediction: Rams by 17.0
✗ BUF won by 3 (model: LA by 17.0) BEST BET LA -3.5 LOSS Lean Under: 71 pts, over
Rams are the pick here, favoured by 17.0 and winning 92% of 50 sims (projected 32-15).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 38 yds on just 35% open, 1.0 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →