NFL Week 4 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 4

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Oct 1

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 90%
21
CLV logo CLV 10%
10
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers239 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET PIT -2.5 O/U 37.5 vs Model PIT -10.5
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 10.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PIT -2.5 +8.0 pts
The model leans Steelers by 10.5, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 21-10).
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jaquan Brisker, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Jared Verse (Browns) vs Dylan Cook (Steelers) - winner: Jared Verse, winning 56% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 4.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 4

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
IND logo IND 70%
25
WAS logo WAS 30%
18
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones253 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor94 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.2 rec, 81 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET IND -3 O/U 46.5 vs Model IND -6.8
Sim Prediction: Colts by 6.8
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Colts: a 6.8-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (25-18).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jeremy Reaves (Commanders) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 18%
11
BLT logo BLT 82%
25
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward177 pass yds, 0.4 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry119 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.0 rec, 60 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BLT -11.5 O/U 43 vs Model BLT -14.4
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 14.4
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Ravens: a 14.4-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (25-11).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Derrick Henry, 7.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Chidobe Awuzie, holding him to 28 yds on just 39% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 52%
26
BUF logo BUF 48%
24
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye254 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson66 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs Romeo Doubs5.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET BUF -7 O/U 48.5 vs Model NE -1.7
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 1.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NE +7 +8.7 pts
Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 1.7 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 26-24).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 53 yds on just 37% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Cole Bishop (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 38%
17
CHI logo CHI 62%
22
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams206 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall71 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze4.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CHI -3 O/U 42.5 vs Model CHI -5.2
Sim Prediction: Bears by 5.2
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Bears: a 5.2-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (22-17).
The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.1 sacks a game (Montez Sweat (3.2 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 50% win rate, 5.5 sacks and 27.9 pressures a game, and Will McDonald IV (2.5 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 46%
23
CIN logo CIN 54%
23
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow291 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten51 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.1 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CIN -2.5 O/U 51 vs Model CIN -0.3
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 0.3
BET VALUE
Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 0.3 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 23-23).
Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 56% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 7.5 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) - winner: Ventrell Miller, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 28%
20
HST logo HST 72%
28
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud294 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery50 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins6.3 rec, 95 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET HST -2.5 O/U 47 vs Model HST -7.6
Sim Prediction: Texans by 7.6
BET VALUE
Texans are the pick here, favoured by 7.6 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 28-20).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 59% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 11.3 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Nico Collins (Texans) vs DaRon Bland (Cowboys) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 60% of routes for 8.1/10.2, 81 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 52%
22
NYG logo NYG 48%
22
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett293 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.8 rec, 96 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET NYG -1 O/U 43.5 vs Model ARZ -0.3
Sim Prediction: Cardinals by 0.3
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Cardinals win 52% of them, by 0.3 on average (22-22).
Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Michael Wilson, open on 58% of routes for 7.9/11.6, 69 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 82%
25
PHI logo PHI 18%
14
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford257 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams86 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua6.8 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET LA -2.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model LA -11.5
Sim Prediction: Rams by 11.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -2.5 +9.0 pts
The model leans Rams by 11.5, winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 25-14).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 60%
23
TB logo TB 40%
20
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love255 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving Bucky Irving40 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.3 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET GB -3 O/U 41.5 vs Model GB -3.1
Sim Prediction: Packers by 3.1
BET VALUE
The model leans Packers by 3.1, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 23-20).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Yaya Diaby (Buccaneers) - winner: Yaya Diaby, holding him to 1.5 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Javon Bullard (Packers) - winner: Javon Bullard, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 44%
18
MIN logo MIN 56%
20
PASS Kyler Murray Kyler Murray224 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane84 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Caleb Douglas Caleb Douglas3.9 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET MIN -10 O/U 39.5 vs Model MIN -2.3
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 2.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean MIA +10 +7.7 pts
The model leans Vikings by 2.3, winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 20-18).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Harrison Smith (Vikings) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.3 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs James Pierre (Vikings) - winner: James Pierre, holding him to 31 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 80%
27
LV logo LV 20%
18
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins262 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III105 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker5.5 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -4.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model KC -8.6
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 8.6
BET VALUE
The model leans Chiefs by 8.6, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 27-18).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 8.4 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Maxx Crosby (Raiders) vs Kahlil Benson (Chiefs) - winner: Maxx Crosby, winning 55% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 7.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 26%
16
SEA logo SEA 74%
23
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jadarian Price Jadarian Price57 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.5 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -6.5 O/U 44 vs Model SEA -7.6
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 7.6
BET VALUE
The model leans Seahawks by 7.6, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 23-16).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Tarheeb Still (Chargers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 61% of routes for 7.3/8.5, 72 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 48%
22
SF logo SF 52%
23
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix237 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey66 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle7.1 rec, 102 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET SF -3 O/U 46.5 vs Model SF -0.7
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 0.7
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and 49ers win 52% of them, by 0.7 on average (23-22).
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 62% of routes for 8.1/11.9, 75 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 64%
25
CAR logo CAR 36%
20
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young283 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs82 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.4 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DET -3 O/U 50 vs Model DET -4.8
Sim Prediction: Lions by 4.8
BET VALUE
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 4.8 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 25-20).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Monroe Freeling (Panthers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 4.2 sacks and 9.4 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 5

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 54%
24
NO logo NO 46%
23
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough303 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson80 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.4 rec, 108 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET NO -3 O/U 47.5 vs Model ATL -1.1
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 1.1
BET VALUE
The model leans Falcons by 1.1, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 24-23).
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Quincy Riley, holding him to 18 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Danny Stutsman (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 4.8 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →