NFL Week 7 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 7
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
Thursday, Oct 22
Thu
8:15pm
PROJ
NE 58%
CHI 42%
PASS
Drake Maye239 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Drake Maye239 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Rhamondre Stevenson65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Romeo Doubs5.2 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
Romeo Doubs5.2 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
CHI -3 O/U 49.5 vs Model NE -0.3
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 0.3
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Patriots: a 0.3-point edge and a 58% win rate over 50 runs (22-22).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 42 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Sunday, Oct 25
Sun
9:30am
PROJ
PIT 82%
NO 18%
PASS
Tyler Shough289 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Tyler Shough289 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Jaylen Warren66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Jaylen Warren66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Chris Olave7.7 rec, 112 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave7.7 rec, 112 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
PIT -2 O/U 44 vs Model PIT -10.6
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 10.6
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean PIT -2 +8.6 pts
Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 10.6 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 26-15).
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kaden Elliss (Saints) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
SF 42%
ATL 58%
PASS
Brock Purdy265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Brock Purdy265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson93 rush yds, 0.9 TD
Bijan Robinson93 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC
Drake London5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
Drake London5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
SF -5 O/U 50 vs Model ATL -2.2
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 2.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean ATL +5 +7.2 pts
Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.2 (23-21).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Drake London (Falcons) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Drake London, open on 65% of routes for 8.1/10.4, 66 yds a game - money in this spot.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
CIN 26%
BLT 74%
PASS
Joe Burrow271 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Joe Burrow271 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry81 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Derrick Henry81 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
BLT -3 O/U 51 vs Model BLT -6.2
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 6.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 74% of them, by 6.2 on average (24-18).
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Cam Jurgens (Ravens) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 58% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
TB 26%
CAR 74%
PASS
Bryce Young277 pass yds, 2.3 TD
Bryce Young277 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH
Bucky Irving61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Bucky Irving61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Tetairoa McMillan6.4 rec, 94 yds, 0.7 TD
Tetairoa McMillan6.4 rec, 94 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET
CAR -3 O/U 44 vs Model CAR -6.0
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 6.0
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
The model leans Panthers by 6.0, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 26-20).
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tykee Smith (Buccaneers) - winner: Tykee Smith, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
NYG 16%
HST 84%
PASS
C.J. Stroud278 pass yds, 1.7 TD
C.J. Stroud278 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery37 rush yds, 0.3 TD
David Montgomery37 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Nico Collins5.7 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
Nico Collins5.7 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
HST -8.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model HST -10.1
Sim Prediction: Texans by 10.1
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 84% of the time by an average of 10.1 (24-14).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Micah McFadden (Giants) - winner: Micah McFadden, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
IND 46%
MIN 54%
PASS
Daniel Jones241 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Daniel Jones241 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Jonathan Taylor58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Jonathan Taylor58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Josh Downs5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
Josh Downs5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
MIN -6 O/U 42.5 vs Model MIN -0.6
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 0.6
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Vikings win 54% of them, by 0.6 on average (21-21).
Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Will Fries (Vikings) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 56% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
MIA 12%
NYJ 88%
PASS
Geno Smith215 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Geno Smith215 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Breece Hall62 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Breece Hall62 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Garrett Wilson5.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.2 TD
Garrett Wilson5.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET
NYJ -5.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model NYJ -10.2
Sim Prediction: Jets by 10.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Jets come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 10.2 (21-11).
Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins) vs Demario Davis (Jets) - winner: Demario Davis, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 57% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
CLV 66%
TEN 34%
PASS
Deshaun Watson209 pass yds, 0.9 TD
Deshaun Watson209 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH
Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Denzel Boston5.2 rec, 91 yds, 0.4 TD
Denzel Boston5.2 rec, 91 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
CLV -1.5 O/U 36.5 vs Model CLV -4.5
Sim Prediction: Browns by 4.5
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Browns: a 4.5-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (17-12).
Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: Alontae Taylor, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Sun
4:05pm
PROJ
DEN 62%
ARZ 38%
PASS
Jacoby Brissett265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Jacoby Brissett265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
J.K. Dobbins49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
J.K. Dobbins49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle7.3 rec, 102 yds, 0.6 TD
Jaylen Waddle7.3 rec, 102 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
DEN -4 O/U 43 vs Model DEN -2.6
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 2.6
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Broncos: a 2.6-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (22-19).
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Jayden Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 6.0 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Riley Moss (Broncos) - winner: Riley Moss, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
GB 24%
DET 76%
PASS
Jordan Love307 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Jordan Love307 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Christian Watson6.6 rec, 108 yds, 0.7 TD
Christian Watson6.6 rec, 108 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET
O/U 52.5
Sim Prediction: Lions by 9.2
Full breakdown →
The sim sides with Lions: a 9.2-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (30-21).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Roger McCreary (Lions) - winner: Roger McCreary, holding him to 1.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
LA 88%
LV 12%
PASS
Matthew Stafford306 pass yds, 2.2 TD
Matthew Stafford306 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams80 rush yds, 1.0 TD
Kyren Williams80 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC
Davante Adams6.0 rec, 95 yds, 0.8 TD
Davante Adams6.0 rec, 95 yds, 0.8 TD
MARKET
LA -5.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LA -13.9
Sim Prediction: Rams by 13.9
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean LA -5.5 +8.4 pts
Run it 50 times and Rams win 88% of them, by 13.9 on average (31-17).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 46 yds on just 34% open, 1.1 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Sun
8:20pm
PROJ
KC 42%
SEA 58%
PASS
Sam Darnold252 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Sam Darnold252 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Kenneth Walker III79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Kenneth Walker III79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.7 rec, 94 yds, 0.4 TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.7 rec, 94 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
SEA -1.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model SEA -0.6
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 0.6
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 0.6 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 19-19).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Monday, Oct 26
Mon
8:15pm
PROJ
DAL 70%
PHI 30%
PASS
Dak Prescott265 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Dak Prescott265 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Javonte Williams55 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Javonte Williams55 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
DeVonta Smith5.8 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
DeVonta Smith5.8 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 3.7
Full breakdown →
Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 3.7 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 23-20).
Jonathan Greenard (Eagles) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Greenard, winning 56% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 9.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.