NFL Week 10 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 10

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Nov 12

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 44%
15
NYG logo NYG 56%
16
PASS J.J. McCarthy J.J. McCarthy240 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.4 rec, 78 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET NYG -1.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model NYG -1.8
Sim Prediction: Giants by 1.8
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Giants: a 1.8-point edge and a 56% win rate over 50 runs (16-15).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Trey Amos, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Rachaad White (Commanders) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Ar'Darius Washington, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 15

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
NE logo NE 14%
18
DET logo DET 86%
31
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff255 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown6.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DET -3 O/U 50.5 vs Model DET -12.7
Sim Prediction: Lions by 12.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DET -3 +9.7 pts
The sim sides with Lions: a 12.7-point edge and a 86% win rate over 50 runs (31-18).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Will Campbell (Patriots) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 55% of reps for 4.2 sacks and 9.2 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Christian Elliss (Patriots) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 48%
22
ATL logo ATL 52%
23
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes254 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson121 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.8 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -3.5 O/U 45 vs Model ATL -0.6
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 0.6
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 52% of them, by 0.6 on average (23-22).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Nick Bolton (Chiefs) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 7.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs DeMarcco Hellams (Falcons) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 66%
21
CLV logo CLV 34%
16
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud244 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins33 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Denzel Boston Denzel Boston5.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET HST -5 O/U 39.5 vs Model HST -4.4
Sim Prediction: Texans by 4.4
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Texans win 66% of them, by 4.4 on average (21-16).
Woody Marks (Texans) vs Carson Schwesinger (Browns) - winner: Carson Schwesinger, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 36%
18
GB logo GB 64%
20
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love272 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jordan Mason Jordan Mason47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.2 rec, 93 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET GB -4.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model GB -2.8
Sim Prediction: Packers by 2.8
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Packers: a 2.8-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (20-18).
Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs James Pierre (Vikings) - winner: James Pierre, holding him to 1.8 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 56% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 44%
18
IND logo IND 56%
21
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones218 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malik Washington Malik Washington4.6 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET IND -2.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model IND -3.8
Sim Prediction: Colts by 3.8
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Colts come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 3.8 (21-18).
The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (5.0 sacks a game), led by Laiatu Latu (2.0 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game).
The Colts' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.5 sacks and 18.8 pressures a game (Chop Robinson (2.8 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 76%
28
NO logo NO 24%
20
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young309 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard58 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave8.0 rec, 110 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NO -1 O/U 47.5 vs Model CAR -8.0
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 8.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CAR +1 +9.0 pts
The sim sides with Panthers: a 8.0-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (28-20).
Jaelan Phillips (Panthers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Jaelan Phillips, winning 55% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 7.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Kaden Elliss (Saints) - winner: Chuba Hubbard, 4.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 38%
20
NYJ logo NYJ 62%
25
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith265 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook63 rush yds
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore5.4 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET BUF -8 O/U 50.5 vs Model NYJ -4.8
Sim Prediction: Jets by 4.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NYJ +8 +12.8 pts
Across 50 simulations, Jets come out on top 62% of the time by an average of 4.8 (25-20).
Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Davison Igbinosun (Bills) - winner: Garrett Wilson, open on 65% of routes for 7.4/8.9, 67 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 76%
25
TEN logo TEN 24%
13
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence238 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington4.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET JAX -10.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model JAX -12.3
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 12.3
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 76% of the time by an average of 12.3 (25-13).
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Cedric Gray (Titans) - winner: Bhayshul Tuten, 4.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 62% of routes for 5.1/8.2, 52 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 88%
24
ARZ logo ARZ 12%
10
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford231 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams68 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua6.8 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET LA -9.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model LA -14.0
Sim Prediction: Rams by 14.0
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Rams: a 14.0-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (24-10).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Andrew Wingard (Cardinals) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Reggie Virgil (Cardinals) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 20 yds on just 32% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 64%
26
LV logo LV 36%
21
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold260 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet78 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.3 rec, 100 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -3.5 O/U 43 vs Model SEA -5.5
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 5.5
BET VALUE
The model leans Seahawks by 5.5, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 26-21).
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 5.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Ernest Jones (Seahawks) - winner: Ernest Jones, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 48%
22
DAL logo DAL 52%
21
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott258 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey69 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SF -4 O/U 55.5 vs Model SF -1.0
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 1.0
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, 49ers come out on top 48% of the time by an average of 1.0 (22-21).
Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 57% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 8.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 66% of routes for 8.9/10.1, 74 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 50%
24
CIN logo CIN 50%
24
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow311 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren92 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf6.9 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CIN -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model PIT -0.6
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 0.6
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 0.6 (24-24).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 7.1 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 16

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 4%
14
BLT logo BLT 96%
33
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett325 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry50 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers8.6 rec, 113 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET BLT -5.5 O/U 38.5 vs Model BLT -19.1
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 19.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean BLT -5.5 +13.6 pts
The sim sides with Ravens: a 19.1-point edge and a 96% win rate over 50 runs (33-14).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Tarheeb Still (Chargers) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 63% of routes for 11.1/14.3, 92 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →