NFL Week 10 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 10

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Nov 12

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 50%
17
NYG logo NYG 50%
17
PASS Jameis Winston Jameis Winston252 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt Jacory Croskey-Merritt52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.9 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Giants by 0.1
Across 50 simulations, Giants come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 0.1 (17-17).
Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Brandon Coleman (Commanders) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 9.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 15

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
NE logo NE 40%
22
DET logo DET 60%
26
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff261 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs86 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Romeo Doubs Romeo Doubs4.3 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 4.6
The model leans Lions by 4.6, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 26-22).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.6 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 34%
23
ATL logo ATL 66%
28
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes267 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson130 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.8 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 4.6
The sim sides with Falcons: a 4.6-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (28-23).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 86%
22
CLV logo CLV 14%
13
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud256 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery28 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Denzel Boston Denzel Boston5.4 rec, 86 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Texans by 9.0
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 86% of the time by an average of 9.0 (22-13).
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 40%
19
GB logo GB 60%
22
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love292 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones Aaron Jones53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.3 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Packers by 2.7
Run it 50 times and Packers win 60% of them, by 2.7 on average (22-19).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Byron Murphy Jr. (Vikings) - winner: Byron Murphy Jr., holding him to 1.4 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 57% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 16%
16
IND logo IND 84%
27
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones233 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor79 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Josh Downs Josh Downs5.2 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Colts by 10.7
Run it 50 times and Colts win 84% of them, by 10.7 on average (27-16).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.2 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 57% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 5.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 64%
25
NO logo NO 36%
21
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young305 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard44 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.4 rec, 106 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 3.2
Run it 50 times and Panthers win 64% of them, by 3.2 on average (25-21).
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Akayleb Evans (Panthers) - winner: Akayleb Evans, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 63% of routes for 8.4/11.5, 86 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 36%
21
NYJ logo NYJ 64%
24
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall61 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson6.1 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Jets by 3.0
The model leans Jets by 3.0, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 24-21).
Deone Walker (Bills) vs Dylan Parham (Jets) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.5 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Garrett Wilson, open on 66% of routes for 7.8/10.1, 71 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 96%
24
TEN logo TEN 4%
9
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence238 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.0 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 15.7
The model leans Jaguars by 15.7, winning 96% of 50 sims (projected 24-9).
Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 58% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 2.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 92%
31
ARZ logo ARZ 8%
13
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford296 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams81 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 103 yds, 0.7 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 18.1
The sim sides with Rams: a 18.1-point edge and a 92% win rate over 50 runs (31-13).
Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 61 yds on just 35% open, 1.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.3 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 72%
26
LV logo LV 28%
18
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold272 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson Emanuel Wilson51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.5 rec, 116 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 7.6
Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 7.6 (26-18).
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Tyrice Knight, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 57% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 1.7 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 48%
24
DAL logo DAL 52%
24
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott278 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb6.6 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 0.7
Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 52% of the time by an average of 0.7 (24-24).
Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 55% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 8.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 65% of routes for 9.5/11.3, 81 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 50%
21
CIN logo CIN 50%
22
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow307 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren78 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase6.9 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 1.4
Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 1.4 and winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 16

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 8%
9
BLT logo BLT 92%
21
PASS Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson197 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry51 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 12.1
The sim sides with Ravens: a 12.1-point edge and a 92% win rate over 50 runs (21-9).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Marlon Humphrey (Ravens) - winner: Marlon Humphrey, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Tony Jefferson, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →