Baltimore lost in Cleveland without Lamar Jackson and is 4-2, and our model has the Ravens at ten wins with the title odds cut to 3.5 percent
Updated
Baltimore won 30-23 in Atlanta with Tyler Huntley, then went to Cleveland with Huntley again and lost 13-10. The Ravens are 4-2, tied atop the AFC North with the Browns and Steelers, and have played two games without Lamar Jackson since the ankle injury against Tennessee. When we ran the rest of the season Baltimore came out at 10-7 with a 73 percent playoff chance and a three and a half percent title chance, down from 11-6, 90 percent and 12.5 percent two weeks ago. The model has priced the absence at the length it has actually run rather than the week or two the team expected, and Jackson was limited in practice on Wednesday.
The quarterback line is the one that explains the move. Jackson was 68 of 96 for 967 yards, six touchdowns and one interception at a 120 rating when he went down, and our model projects him for 3,351 yards and 20 touchdowns across the games it expects him to play, down from 3,716 and 23. Huntley is 51 of 72 for 429 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in his three appearances, a 100 rating, and projects for 511 yards, which is the model expecting him to start again. Derrick Henry has 534 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, second in the league in scores, and projects for 1,164 and twelve. Zay Flowers projects for 82 catches and 1,193 yards. Ja'Kobi Lane is back from the wrist and projects for 35 catches. The offense projects for 384 points, 14th in the league, unchanged in total but reshuffled underneath.
The defense has given up 132 points in six games and the Cleveland loss was not its fault; it held the Browns to 13. Baltimore projects to allow 329 points, eighth in the league, down from fourth two weeks ago as the model has leaned harder on this season's snaps. Trenton Simpson projects for nearly seven sacks from linebacker, Nnamdi Madubuike for over seven, and Tavius Robinson has climbed from under six to seven. Roquan Smith's sack projection has nearly doubled to two and a half while his interception line has dropped to 2.7. Kyle Hamilton projects for 102 tackles and nearly two and a half picks, up from one. The team projects for 40 sacks, 16th, and eleven interceptions, 15th.
The division is a three-way tie and the model has Pittsburgh ahead. The Steelers are 4-2 and project for eleven wins with six percent title odds. Cleveland is 4-2 and projects for eight, holding the head-to-head over the Ravens. Cincinnati is 3-2 and projects for ten. When we ran the rest of the season Baltimore won the AFC North less often than Pittsburgh for the first time all year, and the Bengals game at home this week, which the model gives the Ravens 66 percent in, is where that order starts to get tested. Jackson's availability decides most of it.
The next month is four games the model mostly likes. Cincinnati at home at 66 percent, a trip to Buffalo at 70, Jacksonville at home at 50, and the Chargers at home at 82. When we ran that stretch Baltimore went 3-1 more often than anything else, and the Jacksonville game is the one the model treats as a true toss-up between two of the AFC's four best rosters. A 7-3 record entering the second week of November would restore the eleven-win projection.
The fortnight in detail: a 30-23 win in Atlanta with Huntley at quarterback, and a 13-10 loss in Cleveland in which the offense scored ten against a Browns defense the model has eleventh. The Atlanta win was the model's expectation for a Ravens team without Jackson: run the ball, play defense, win by a score. The Cleveland loss was the floor of that approach, and it is the game that moved the title odds from 12.5 percent to three and a half. Jackson's status is the only thing that matters. He was limited in practice on Wednesday for the first time since the injury, and if he starts against Cincinnati the projection will move back up by about a win in the next run, because the model has Huntley for 83 more attempts and would reassign most of them. Henry's touchdown projection has dropped from 14 to twelve as the model has watched defenses load the box against a backup quarterback. Flowers' yardage projection has dropped 68. The defense has not changed much; it is still eighth. What moves the number from here is Sunday. Jackson back and a win over Cincinnati puts Baltimore at 5-2 and back on an eleven-win pace. Huntley again and a loss puts the Ravens a game behind Pittsburgh with the Steelers holding the head-to-head after Week 8 if they beat Cleveland.
The matchup record is a team that has done slightly better than the projections. We gave Baltimore 30 percent in Indianapolis, 70 against New Orleans, 66 in Dallas, 84 against Tennessee, 54 in Atlanta and 74 in Cleveland. Four wins from under four expected is close to even, and the two losses were both games the model had the Ravens winning. The market opened Baltimore at ten and a half wins. Our model sat nearly two under it in July, a win over it two weeks ago, and on it now. The read is a top-five roster with a top-three quarterback who has missed two games, and a projection that will move the week he comes back.
