Atlanta started its third quarterback in Pittsburgh and lost, and our model trimmed the Falcons from eleven wins to ten
Updated
The boldest projection in the NFC South rested on Michael Penix Jr. taking a giant step in his first full year as the starter. In Week 1 he did not take a step at all, because he was inactive with a knee that is close but not right, and Tua Tagovailoa, who was named the starter in his place, was out with an oblique injury by kickoff. Cooper Rush started in Pittsburgh, went 12 of 22 for 143 yards, threw two interceptions including a pick-six to T.J. Watt, and the Falcons lost 20-13. When we re-ran the season with that game and those absences seeded in, Atlanta slid from eleven wins to ten, a 10-7 finish with a 78 percent playoff chance. The number is still bold. It is a win less bold than it was, and the reason is entirely at quarterback.
Our model still believes in Penix, and it still projects him as the starter for most of the season. His line reads 3,462 yards and 19 touchdowns against nine interceptions behind a passer rating of 92, across 16 games rather than 17, and the efficiency is a touch better than the summer projection even as the volume comes down. The bet on trajectory over track record is the same bet. What changed is that the model now prices in a missing game at the start and the uncertainty about when the knee is right, and one game of Rush at quarterback is worth roughly a win against a schedule that starts with Pittsburgh.
The reason the projection did not fall further is Bijan Robinson, and he made the case himself. Robinson touched the ball 29 times for 173 scrimmage yards in Pittsburgh, caught all eight of his targets for 90 yards and a score, and was the only reason Atlanta was in the game. Our model projects him for 1,631 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns with 54 catches on top, the best back in the conference by our numbers. Drake London's projection jumped from 87 catches and 1,114 yards to 108 catches for 1,468, a true number one absorbing more volume as the offense leans on its stars. Kyle Pitts adds 52 catches and six scores. The offense projects for 396 points, ninth in the league, and the tenth-most yards, and it did that with a third-string quarterback in one of the seventeen games.
The defense is where the honesty has to come in, and the honesty is more encouraging than it was in July. Za'Darius Smith had two sacks in his Falcons debut and projects for eleven on the season. Samson Ebukam projects for eight and a half. Xavier Watts holds down the back end at 101 tackles and three interceptions. The unit held Pittsburgh to 23 percent on third down and 20 points, seven of which came from the offense's own interception, and our model projects it allowing 336 points, 12th in the league, up from the 19th-ranked grade we gave it in the summer. Jalon Walker, the ascending edge we mentioned in July, tore his ACL in training camp and is out for the year, which is why the pass rush is Smith and Ebukam rather than a rotation.
The division is still the softest in the conference, and it is still the reason ten wins in Atlanta is reasonable. New Orleans took Detroit to overtime and holds at eight wins in our projection. Carolina gave up 59 to Chicago and fell to six. Tampa Bay lost in Cincinnati and projects for five. When we ran the rest of the season, the Falcons won the NFC South more often than anyone else in it, and the six divisional games are where a healthy Penix with Robinson and London behind him builds a playoff record.
The market opened Atlanta somewhere around eight and a half wins, and in July we sat two and a half above it. Now we sit a win and a half above, and the lean is still a bet on trajectory. If Penix is back by Week 2 or Week 3 and plays the way our model expects, the eleven wins we projected in the summer are still on the table. If the knee lingers and Atlanta is playing Rush or Tagovailoa into October, the Falcons are a nine-win team fighting for a wild card in a division they should be winning.
The path to being wrong is now a medical report rather than a development curve. The summer risk was that Penix's leap would not come. The September risk is that it cannot come because he is not on the field. That is a live one, and it is why the projection comes with the same flag it carried in July. But when we ran the season, the combination of Robinson, London, a top-twelve defense and the softest division in football added up to a playoff team more often than not, even with the quarterback uncertainty baked in.
So the read on Atlanta is a young team our model still believes in, with the belief now conditional on a knee. Ten wins, the division favorite, and a receiver and running back who just proved they can carry a game on their own. Watch the injury report before you watch anything else. The whole season pivots on the quarterback, which is exactly what we said in July, and Week 1 was the first time the pivot went the wrong way.
