NFL Week 18 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 18

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Sunday, Jan 10

Sun 12:00am
PROJ
SF logo SF 66%
23
ARZ logo ARZ 34%
19
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy270 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Michael Wilson Michael Wilson7.8 rec, 98 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 4.3
Across 50 simulations, 49ers come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 4.3 (23-19).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 59% of routes for 5.4/8.0, 55 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 38%
15
BLT logo BLT 62%
20
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers220 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers5.3 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 4.5
The model leans Ravens by 4.5, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 20-15).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 62% of routes for 6.5/8.2, 65 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 70%
22
BUF logo BUF 30%
19
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith240 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall66 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson5.3 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Jets by 4.0
The sim sides with Jets: a 4.0-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (22-19).
Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Garrett Wilson, open on 66% of routes for 6.3/8.7, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 62%
29
CAR logo CAR 38%
24
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young312 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson134 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan6.1 rec, 91 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 5.4
Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 62% of the time by an average of 5.4 (29-24).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.3 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Harold Perkins Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Harold Perkins Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 32%
16
CIN logo CIN 68%
24
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow283 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase6.1 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 7.7
The model leans Bengals by 7.7, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 24-16).
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Tacario Davis (Bengals) - winner: Tacario Davis, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 26%
12
DEN logo DEN 74%
16
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix234 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.5 rec, 82 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 4.0
The sim sides with Broncos: a 4.0-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (16-12).
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Travis Burke (Chargers) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 58% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 56% of reps for 0.6 sacks and 7.0 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
DET logo DET 64%
30
GB logo GB 36%
23
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love320 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.7 rec, 101 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 6.3
Run it 50 times and Lions win 64% of them, by 6.3 on average (30-23).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Roger McCreary (Lions) - winner: Roger McCreary, holding him to 1.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 12%
11
HST logo HST 88%
26
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud277 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery37 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.5 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Texans by 14.9
The model leans Texans by 14.9, winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 26-11).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 58% of reps for 5.2 sacks and 12.1 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Jake Hansen (Texans) - winner: Jake Hansen, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 72%
26
IND logo IND 28%
18
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence267 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 7.7
Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 72% of them, by 7.7 on average (26-18).
Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Ezra Cleveland (Jaguars) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 55% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 1.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 60% of routes for 5.8/7.9, 69 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
LV logo LV 36%
24
KC logo KC 64%
26
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins276 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III95 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker6.2 rec, 82 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 1.4
Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 1.4 (26-24).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 7.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 12%
14
LA logo LA 88%
27
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford271 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams79 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.8 rec, 94 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 13.3
The sim sides with Rams: a 13.3-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (27-14).
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
CHI logo CHI 44%
20
MIN logo MIN 56%
21
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams225 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift D'Andre Swift55 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 73 yds, 0.2 TD
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 0.9
Across 50 simulations, Vikings come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 0.9 (21-20).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 41 yds on just 37% open, 1.2 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 16%
12
NE logo NE 84%
25
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye230 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs Romeo Doubs4.3 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 13.5
The sim sides with Patriots: a 13.5-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (25-12).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 21 yds on just 39% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 58% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 7.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
TB logo TB 60%
22
NO logo NO 40%
20
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough296 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving Bucky Irving56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.6 rec, 109 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Buccaneers by 1.9
Buccaneers are the pick here, favoured by 1.9 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 22-20).
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Benjamin Morrison (Buccaneers) - winner: Benjamin Morrison, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Chris Olave (Saints) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 63% of routes for 9.7/12.0, 95 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
PHI logo PHI 72%
18
NYG logo NYG 28%
13
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts234 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith5.3 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 4.8
Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 4.8 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 18-13).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Tariq Woolen (Eagles) - winner: Tariq Woolen, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 72%
23
WAS logo WAS 28%
20
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott284 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt Jacory Croskey-Merritt54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb6.1 rec, 86 yds, 0.7 TD
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 3.1
Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 3.1 (23-20).
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 63% of routes for 7.1/9.8, 64 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Full breakdown →