Cincinnati lost at home to Jacksonville and may be without Chase and Higgins this week, and our model has the Bengals at ten wins
Updated
Cincinnati lost 22-17 at home to Jacksonville, fell to 2-2, and came out of the game with both starting receivers hurt. Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol and is more likely than not to miss the Miami game. Tee Higgins has an adductor injury and is day to day at best. When we ran the rest of the season the Bengals came out at 10-7 with a 75 percent playoff chance and a two and a half percent title chance, down a touch from 10.7 wins after Week 3 and a long way from the 12.4 wins and eight percent title odds we projected in July. The model's view of Cincinnati has been sliding for a month, and the receivers' injuries are the first time the slide has had a name.
The offense has been very good when it has had everyone, which is the frustrating part. Joe Burrow is 112 of 157 for 1,171 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, a 99.5 rating through four games, and projects for 5,298 yards and 35 touchdowns, which would lead the league. Tee Higgins has 25 catches for 401 yards and projects for 93 catches and 1,407 yards. Chase has 21 catches for 212 yards and three scores and projects for 113 catches and 1,380, the first time this season the model has had Higgins ahead of him. Mike Gesicki projects for 63 catches and ten touchdowns. Chase Brown has 207 rushing yards on 58 carries and projects for just 621 on the ground plus 69 catches, which is the model telling you the ground game is a dump-off game. The offense projects for 426 points, sixth in the league.
The defense has been the problem all year, and Jacksonville was the latest version of it. Cincinnati projects to allow 353 points, 16th in the league, and the 19th-fewest yards. The pass rush is the strength. Myles Murphy, Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe all project for between ten and eleven sacks, the only trio in the league to do that, and the team projects for 48 sacks, fifth in football. Lawrence has three already. The back end is the weakness. The Bengals project for under nine interceptions, 29th in the league. Bryan Cook projects for 116 tackles from safety, which is the number of a secondary that is making a lot of stops after the catch. Barrett Carter's tackle projection has tripled to 90 as the rookie linebacker has taken over a starting role.
The division has gotten away from Cincinnati faster than the record suggests. Baltimore is 3-1 and projects for eleven wins with a 12.5 percent title chance. Cleveland is 3-1 and projects for seven. Pittsburgh is 2-2 and projects for nine and a half. The Bengals have lost to the Steelers and have the Ravens twice still to play. When we ran the rest of the season Cincinnati won the AFC North in a minority of simulated years and reached the playoffs as a wild card far more often than as the division winner.
The next month is a mix of relief and reckoning. A trip to Miami at 84 percent, which is where the Bengals should be able to survive without Chase and Higgins, then a bye in Week 6, a trip to Baltimore at 36, Tennessee at home at 84, and a trip to Atlanta at 38. When we ran that stretch Cincinnati went 2-2 more often than anything else, with the two heavy favorites won and the two road games lost. A 4-4 record entering November would leave the ten-win projection needing a 6-3 finish, and the schedule is softer after that.
The player lines reflect an offense that was humming before the injuries. Burrow's projection climbed from 5,002 yards to 5,298 and from 34 touchdowns to 35, with his interception line up from nine to eleven. Higgins' projection rose from 85 catches to 93 and from 1,257 yards to 1,407. Chase's dropped from 119 catches to 113 and from 1,433 yards to 1,380, and neither line has been adjusted for the concussion yet. Chase Brown's receiving projection climbed from 57 catches to 69 while his rushing line dropped from 682 to 621. Gesicki's touchdown projection rose from nine to ten. On defense, Murphy's sack projection climbed from ten to 10.8, Lawrence's from 9.8 to 10.6, and Mafe's from 9.9 to 10.5, which is three pass rushers all moving the same direction. Bryan Cook's tackle projection fell from 132 to 116. Barrett Carter's went from 28 to 90. The number to watch is the receivers' availability. The 426-point offense assumes both of them play most of the remaining games.
The matchup record is a team that has lost the two close games it was given. We gave Cincinnati 84 percent against Tampa Bay and the Bengals won. We gave them 54 in Houston and they won. We gave them 46 in Pittsburgh and they lost by three, and 48 against Jacksonville and they lost by five. Two wins from about two and a third expected is a small underperformance, and both losses were coin flips the model would have accepted either way. The market opened Cincinnati at eleven wins. Our model sat a win and a half over it in July and sits a half-win under it now. The gap is about a defense that cannot cover and an offense that is about to find out how it functions without its two best receivers.
