Cincinnati has the most dangerous passing game in football, and our model is done pretending otherwise
Updated
When Joe Burrow is upright, the Cincinnati passing game is a cheat code, and our model finally has a full season of it to play with. A year ago an early injury robbed the Bengals of their franchise quarterback and dragged the whole enterprise into the mud. Healthy, he is a different proposition entirely. When we ran the simulations, Burrow threw for a staggering 5,561 yards and 40 touchdowns behind a passer rating north of 103, and the offense he pilots grades second in the entire league. This is the reason the projection puts Cincinnati at better than 12 wins, comfortably clear of a market that is still hedging on his health.
The weapons are the stuff of nightmares for a defensive coordinator. Ja'Marr Chase is the best receiver in football and our model treats him like it, a projected 136 catches for 1,653 yards and 10 touchdowns, numbers that would headline an MVP campaign at any other position. On the other side, Tee Higgins is a number one masquerading as a number two, 93 grabs and nearly 1,300 yards in our run of the season. Two receivers of that caliber on the same field is simply unfair, and it turns every third down into a pick your poison. Add a productive Chase Brown out of the backfield, a projected 76 receptions to go with his rushing, and a red zone tight end in Mike Gesicki, and you have an offense with no soft spot to attack.
The improvement story here is really a health story. Burrow's actual line last season, cut short at under 2,000 yards, tells you nothing about who he is. The 5,561 yard projection tells you everything. This is a quarterback returning to full strength with the best receiver tandem in the sport, and when we ran the season the Bengals scored 457 points, one of the highest totals in the league. An offense like this does not need to be schemed open. It simply overwhelms, and it does so week after week.
Honesty requires acknowledging the other side of the ball, because Cincinnati did not have a great defense to begin with and then let its best pass rusher walk. Trey Hendrickson, an 82 grade edge and the engine of the pass rush, is gone, and the secondary lost pieces around him. Our defense grade lands 22nd, a middling unit that will give up its share of points. When we ran the simulations the Bengals allowed 330, respectable but not stingy, and there will be shootouts on this schedule where the defense has to make one stop it is not always equipped to make.
Here is why it does not sink the projection. When your offense scores in the thirties every week, your defense only has to be adequate, and 22nd in the league is adequate. The math of a Burrow led team is simple. Cincinnati does not have to win 17 to 13. It wins 34 to 27, and it wins those games often, because the offense is a metronome of points and the opponent has to be perfect to keep pace. A middling defense on a great offense is a formula that has carried teams deep into January before, and this offense is better than great.
The gap between our model and the market is a gap of belief. Vegas has priced in real doubt about whether Burrow makes it through a full season, and that doubt is not unreasonable given last year. But our projection is not built on hope. It is built on what this roster does when the quarterback is on the field, and what it does is score more than almost anyone. We are comfortable planting a flag here. When we ran the season, Cincinnati was one of the four or five best teams in football, and the number reflects it.
The schedule does nothing to scare an offense this potent. When we ran the season, the Bengals hung 30 and 40 on defenses good and bad, because a healthy Burrow with Chase and Higgins does not have cold stretches, he has slightly less warm ones. The AFC North is a gauntlet, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are real, and those games will be physical and close. But Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker that matters most in a division race, the best quarterback in it, and when the games tighten in December the team with the fifth year franchise passer tends to make the throw that decides them.
The path to being wrong is the obvious one, and it wears a familiar face. If Burrow gets hurt again, the whole thing collapses, because the drop from him to a backup is a cliff, not a step. That is the single risk that matters, and it is why the market is cautious. But you cannot build a projection around the fear of an injury that may not come. You build it around the roster in front of you, and this roster, with a healthy Burrow, is a juggernaut.
So we will take the over on Cincinnati and mean it. The offense is the best in the AFC, the receiver room is the best in the sport, and the quarterback, when healthy, is a top three player at his position. The defense will surrender points, and a few games will get uncomfortable in the fourth quarter. It will not matter often enough to keep this team out of the top tier. When we ran the season, the Bengals looked like a contender, and we see no reason to talk ourselves out of it.
