Aidan Chiles QB Michigan State | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
Aidan Chiles QB Michigan State
NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
PLAY STYLE: Mobile Pocket Passer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Last Updated: 06/06/2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Draft Year: 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 time: 4.65 seconds (84%*) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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PLAY STYLE: Mobile Pocket Passer | |
Last Updated: 06/06/2025 | |
Draft Year: 2026 | |
40 time: 4.65 seconds (84%*) | |
SHARE THIS PROFILE:
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Overall Rating: | 80.0 / 100 | |
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Average rating of opposition Defense player has faced | ||
Defense Rating: |
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74% |
Click the links below to view how player ranks vs other prospects. | ||
Release Speed: |
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76% |
Short Passing: |
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66% |
Medium Passing: |
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72% |
Long Passing: |
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80% |
Rush/Scramble: |
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87% |
DRAFT PROJECTION:
7th
Overall Rank:
#221
Position rank:
#18
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College Games: 21 College Snaps: 804 | ||
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Player Comparison* (Similarity level) | ||
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Adrian Martinez - Kansas State |
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80% |
EJ Perry - Brown |
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74% |
Michael Pratt - Tulane |
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74% |
Draft Profile: Bio
The former Downey High School standout carved quite the path to East Lansing, transforming from a consensus four-star recruit who dominated California prep football into a quarterback still searching for his ceiling in the Big Ten. Chiles lit up scoreboards as a high school senior, completing over 73% of his throws for 3,350 yards and 38 touchdowns while leading Downey to a 12-3 record and CIF Southern Section Championship appearance. That production earned him recognition as a top-10 dual-threat quarterback nationally and secured his spot in the prestigious All-American Bowl.His collegiate journey began at Oregon State, where he spent 2023 as a freshman backup behind DJ Uiagalelei. Despite limited opportunities, Chiles flashed efficiency when called upon, completing nearly 69% of his passes without throwing an interception across nine appearances. Those glimpses convinced Jonathan Smith to bring him along when the coach made his move to Michigan State, where Chiles immediately won the starting job and was named a team captain as a sophomore. His debut season as a full-time starter in 2024 produced mixed results - 2,415 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 59% of his attempts across 12 starts.
The numbers tell only part of the story for a quarterback who showed marked improvement as the season progressed, posting an 8-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final half of the campaign. His 363-yard, three-touchdown performance against Maryland stands as the eighth-best single-game passing display in Michigan State history, highlighted by a spectacular 77-yard scoring strike to Nick Marsh that sparked a fourth-quarter comeback. Those flashes of brilliance, combined with his dual-threat ability that netted 225 rushing yards and three ground scores, illustrate why scouts remain intrigued despite the inconsistent production.
Scouting Report: Strengths
- Some natural arm talent with excellent ball velocity and the ability to make throws from multiple arm angles when the pocket breaks down.
- Impressive deep ball accuracy when he plants his feet and follows through, consistently dropping passes into tight windows down the field.
- Elusive scrambler who extends plays with his legs and possesses legitimate breakaway speed once he reaches the second level of the defense.
- Quick release mechanism that allows him to get the ball out rapidly when he processes the coverage correctly and trusts his reads.
- Demonstrated growth throughout his first full season as a starter, cutting his interception rate significantly over the back half of 2024.
- Leadership qualities that earned him captain status as just a sophomore, commanding respect from teammates and showing poise in pressure situations.
- Strong physical frame at 6'3" with room to add functional weight while maintaining his mobility and athletic traits at the position.
- Clutch gene that surfaces in critical moments, evidenced by his game-changing throws late in contests when his team needed a spark.
Scouting Report: Weaknesses
- Ball security remains a glaring concern with 11 interceptions and multiple fumbles highlighting his tendency to make dangerous decisions under pressure.
- Processing speed lags behind elite college quarterbacks, often holding the ball too long when his first read isn't immediately available.
- Completion percentage of 59% reflects struggles with short and intermediate precision passing, particularly on timing routes that require anticipation and rhythm.
- Pocket presence needs refinement as he sometimes abandons clean pockets prematurely rather than stepping up and delivering from the hash marks.
- Inconsistent footwork mechanics that affect his accuracy, especially when throwing across his body or off his back foot during scramble situations.
Scouting Report: Summary
Aidan Chiles is a quarterback caught between two worlds - one where his rushing ability and explosive arm create highlight-reel moments, and another where processing delays and ball security lapses expose his developmental gaps. Chiles thrives when given clean looks and time to survey the field, unleashing deep strikes with impressive velocity and touch. Yet those same sequences often deteriorate when pressure arrives, forcing hurried decisions that result in dangerous throws into coverage. His mobility serves as both blessing and curse, extending plays that showcase his athleticism while occasionally masking his reluctance to work through progressions from the pocket.The intermediate passing game presents the most telling contradiction in his skill set. While he can thread needles on comeback routes when his feet are set, his timing on crossing patterns and over routes remains inconsistent, leading to passes that arrive late or sail high. This hesitation in the short-to-medium range contrasts sharply with his confidence attacking vertically, where his natural arm strength allows him to challenge safeties and beat press coverage.
His junior season will ultimately determine whether he develops into a legitimate starter or remains a developmental backup with special package utility. The physical framework exists for NFL success, but quarterbacks who fail to improve their processing speed and decision-making typically plateau as change-of-pace options rather than franchise cornerstones. Chiles possesses enough raw talent to warrant mid-round consideration if he demonstrates consistent growth, though continued struggles with ball security and completion percentage could push him toward the late rounds regardless of his athletic upside. The tape shows flashes of Sunday-level ability, but sustained excellence requires the mental refinement that has eluded him thus far.
How other scouting services rate Aidan Chiles (Overall Rank)
All Scouts AverageOverall Rank
150.3
All Scouts AveragePosition Rank
13.0
*Percentile Ranking in Player's Position Group (NFL Combine Historical Data): This percentile reflects how a player's specific statistics rank
in comparison to historical performances at the NFL Combine, specifically within their position group. A higher percentile indicates a better performance.
For instance, being in the 90th percentile for a particular stat means the player outperformed 90% of their peers in that category.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.