Why Quarterbacks Dominate the Top Picks in Every NFL Draft - Even When They Shouldn’t

And yet, year after year, the same mistake repeats itself. Quarterbacks are taken far earlier than their true value warrants. 

Why does this happen with such predictable regularity? In this post, we’ll break down the reasons behind this recurring overdrafting phenomenon.

The Quarterback Position's Role 

The spot is the engine room for the entire team. They call the plays on the gridiron, throw perfect throws to the wide receivers, and ensure that the team remains level-headed in tough moments.

Since quarterbacks are super important for a team to be successful, NFL franchises feel that they must have one who can perform week in and week out. So, the highest-ranked prospects out of college, who aren’t yet proven in the NFL, get drafted in the first round. And the teams that draft them all think they’ve got the next Tom Brady on their hands.

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High Hopes to Get Teams Back to the Top

NFL teams don’t play every weekend during the regular season or grind through the offseason just for fun. Sure, there’s an entertainment aspect, but at the end of the day, these teams are in it for profit — and nothing brings in more revenue than winning.

So, when a team doesn’t have a top quarterback, draft day becomes their biggest opportunity to find one. That’s why they often use their early picks on college QBs. A big part of this comes down to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). Once the draft begins, teams scramble to grab the next potential superstar quarterback before someone else does, worried that if they pass, he’ll become a star on another roster.

But it’s not just on-field logic that drives these choices. There’s a whole mix of emotion and business behind it:

• Franchise pressure: Teams without a clear leader feel desperate to fill the most visible position.
• Success stories like Mahomes and Allen fuel hope: A few breakout cases convince teams they could strike gold too.
• Marketing value: A new quarterback instantly restores fan excitement.

It’s comparable to seeing the newest toy at the front of the toy store down the street. Even though you might not need it right then, you’ll do everything in your power to obtain it out of fear of seeing it in someone else’s hands.

Taking a Big Chance

Drafting a quarterback is a massive decision. In many ways, it’s a gamble—no matter how much scouting is done, no one can truly predict how it will play out. It’s a lot like placing a bet at an online casino: sometimes you hit big, sometimes you walk away disappointed.

Once the pick is made, there’s no going back. A first-round quarterback can either become a Super Bowl champion or end up as another didn’t live up to expectations story. As such, a QB that crushed all milestones while in college might struggle when it comes to playing with professional NFL players.

Although this fact has been obvious over the years, teams still love the idea of being the ones that discovered the best QB. This makes them continue to pick quarterbacks early in the draft, hoping that one of them will turn out to be great in the future.

DID YOU KNOW: Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round (199th pick) by the New England Patriots. 

The Outliers That Fool Everyone

Deep down, we're pretty sure that most NFL teams are doing all they can to stop overdrafting. Yet the temptation proves irresistible when they hear stories of teams that did the same and struck gold.

For example, in the 2017 draft, Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick for the KC Chiefs. So far, he’s led the Chiefs to three Super Bowl wins. One year after Mahomes was drafted, the Buffalo Bills used their 7th pick on Josh Allen. And while Allen hasn’t propelled the team to a Super Bowl win yet, he’s made them contenders.

When NFL teams see instances like this, they come to believe they’ll be next in line. However, this rarely happens, leaving a lot of franchises disappointed in the long run.

Some teams don’t focus solely on the QB position and end up winning in the long run. While it’s an important role, they prioritize strengthening other spots on the roster. The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens did this before signing Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as quarterbacks. So when their QBs arrived, the team was already in a position to succeed.

Final Thoughts: Will NFL Teams Ever Stop Overdrafting Quarterbacks?

Most franchises don’t have the patience to build their squads. But you can’t blame them — fans want the win. As such, they invest in new quarterbacks, hoping their Super Bowl dreams will finally come true. Maybe one day teams will learn to build first and draft later. For now, the quarterback chase remains king.