Our Model Has Let Go of the Rams. Detroit and Kansas City Are What It Holds Now.

By - Matt B

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Two Rams losses and a model that now trusts this season over last have flipped the title race to Detroit, Kansas City and San Francisco.

Los Angeles lost 37-34 at home to Buffalo as a 92 percent favorite. A week later it lost 18-16 at home to Arizona as a 98 percent favorite. The Rams are 2-4, fourth in their own division, and when we re-ran the season this week they came out at 10-7 with an 8.5 percent title chance. In July that number was 44 percent. After Week 4 it was 29. The team our model spent four months calling the best in football is now the fourth-most likely champion, level with Jacksonville and a point ahead of Green Bay.

Two things happened to produce that. The first is on the field: two home losses to teams the model had nowhere near the Rams, with Matthew Stafford at eleven touchdowns and six interceptions and a defense that has given up 55 points in a fortnight. The second is in the model. We have turned up how much weight it gives to this season's snaps. Through September it leaned on the completed season as its anchor and let 2026 earn its way in slowly, which is the right instinct in week two and the wrong one in week six. The blend now moves faster: a full-time starter's line is about three-quarters this season after six games, up from just over half, and last season is out of the picture entirely by week 14. Every number below reflects that, and the teams that have played six weeks of football unlike their 2025 selves are the teams that moved most.

The ninety-four games that have been played are in the books, one of them a tie. The remaining eleven weeks and the postseason were played out two hundred times with every player's six weeks of real production seeded into his line and the injury list as it stands on Wednesday morning. What came back is below.

The scorecard

Our matchup projections picked a favorite in 26 of the 29 games in Weeks 5 and 6 (two were coin flips, and the Giants and Commanders tied) and got 14 of them right. That is a step back from the 12-4 Week 4, and the misses were large ones. Buffalo at 8 percent in Los Angeles. Arizona at 2 percent in Los Angeles. Tennessee at 18 percent in Indianapolis. Cleveland at 26 percent at home against Baltimore. Denver at 30 percent at home against Seattle. Chicago at 26 percent in Atlanta. Tampa Bay at 24 percent in Dallas. Seven underdogs at 30 percent or less won in two weeks, which is the kind of fortnight that moves a projection, and it moved this one.

Detroit is the favorite and did not have to play to get there

The Lions beat Arizona 45-21, took their bye, and watched the Rams lose twice. When we re-ran the season Detroit came out at 12-4, averaging 12.5 wins, with a 97 percent playoff chance and a 24.5 percent title chance, the best in football. Jared Goff has twelve touchdowns and no interceptions through five games and projects for 37 and three, which is still the best ratio the model has ever produced for a quarterback. The offense projects for 522 points, the most in the league by 75. Jahmyr Gibbs has seven rushing touchdowns in five games and projects for 19. The defense is the hedge and the model has stopped pretending otherwise, projecting 377 points allowed, which is why a 3-2 team with the best offense in football is the favorite at 24 percent rather than 35. Green Bay at home this week is the first real test of the new number, and the model gives Detroit 52 percent in it.

Kansas City is 5-0 and the model has moved it to thirteen wins

The Chiefs took their bye, beat the Chargers 22-6, and came out of the re-run at 13-4 with a 100 percent playoff chance and 17.5 percent title odds, up from 12-5 and four percent a fortnight ago. That is a 13.5-point jump in title odds for a team that played one game, and it is the clearest example of what the new weighting does. Kansas City has allowed 83 points in five games, 16.6 a game, and the model was still projecting it for 350 points allowed on the strength of a 2025 defense that was nothing like this one. It now projects 306. Kenneth Walker III has 665 rushing yards in five games, the most in the league, and projects for 1,925 and 21 touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes is at a 103 rating. The pass rush, which projected last in the league two weeks ago at 32.6 sacks, now projects for 38, which is still 24th and still the thing the Jaguars and Ravens would attack in January. Rashee Rice remains out with the hamstring. The Chiefs are the AFC favorite and the gap behind them is wide: Jacksonville at 8.5, Pittsburgh at six, Baltimore at three and a half.

San Francisco is 6-0 and finally the division favorite

The 49ers beat Seattle 32-29 on the road as a 36 percent underdog, beat Washington 23-17, and are the last unbeaten team in the NFC. When we re-ran the season San Francisco came out at 12-5, averaging twelve wins, with a 94 percent playoff chance and three and a half percent title odds, up from 10-7 and half a percent. Brock Purdy is 119 of 171 for 1,460 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions at a 118 rating, and has been sacked five times in six games after going four weeks without one. The defense has allowed 110 points. For the first time all season the model has the 49ers winning the NFC West more often than the Rams, which is a sentence that would have been absurd in July, when it had San Francisco at six and a half wins and an eight percent playoff chance. The 49ers have climbed more than five wins since the summer, the largest move in the league in either direction. Atlanta on the road this week at 52 percent is the next one.

Where the arguments moved

Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 and Dallas 23-13, is 4-2, and jumped from 8-9 to 11-6 with an eight percent title chance, the fourth-largest title number in football. Micah Parsons is still on the physically unable to perform list and Josh Jacobs is still on the exempt list, and the Packers have won two straight by double digits without either of them. Christian Watson has 538 yards and six touchdowns and projects for 1,655 and 13. Jordan Love has eleven touchdowns and four interceptions. The defense has allowed 20 in two games and the model has moved its projection from 400 points allowed to 354. Detroit on the road this week at 48 percent is the game that decides whether the Packers are a division contender or a wild card team.

Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 34-22 and Tampa Bay 26-19, is 4-2 and tied atop the AFC North, and climbed from 9-7 to 11-6 with an 85 percent playoff chance and six percent title odds. Aaron Rodgers has twelve touchdowns and five interceptions and has been sacked 19 times, which is still the number to watch. Jaylen Warren projects for 1,237 rushing yards. The AFC North is now Pittsburgh's to lose by the model's reckoning, because Baltimore went to Cleveland without Lamar Jackson and lost 13-10, and the re-run has the Ravens at 10-7 with three and a half percent title odds, down from 11-5 and 12.5 percent. Jackson has missed two games with the ankle and was limited in practice on Wednesday. Tyler Huntley went 51 of 72 for 429 yards in his three appearances, and the model has priced the absence at the length it has actually run rather than the week or two the team expected.

Carolina beat Philadelphia 25-14 on the road, is 3-2 after its bye, and climbed from 9-8 to 10-6 with an 85.5 percent playoff chance and six percent title odds. Bryce Young projects for 4,964 yards and 35 touchdowns at a 105.5 rating, the fourth-highest rating projection of any starter, and Tetairoa McMillan for 1,549 yards. The Panthers are the model's NFC South favorite now, because Atlanta lost at home to Baltimore and at home to Chicago, is 2-4, and fell from 11-6 to 9-8 with a 52 percent playoff chance. Michael Penix Jr. is at a 106 rating in his four starts. The defense has given up 153 points.

Buffalo won in Los Angeles and in Las Vegas, is 5-1, and has gone from 8-9 to 10-7 in a fortnight. Josh Allen has 1,504 yards and nine touchdowns, James Cook has 627 rushing yards, and the Bills are scoring 33 a game. The defense is still projected 28th at 420 points allowed. New England beat the Raiders 45-17 and the Jets 26-19, is 4-2 a game behind Buffalo, and projects for 10-7 with a 73 percent playoff chance. Drake Maye has eleven touchdowns and seven interceptions. The model has the Bills and Patriots within a half-win of each other for the division, with Buffalo holding the record and New England the head-to-head.

Houston won in Tennessee and in Jacksonville, is 2-4, and climbed from 8-9 to 9-8 with a 45 percent playoff chance. Will Anderson Jr. has ten sacks in six games and projects for 22. Jacksonville gave up 34 at home to the Texans, is 4-2, and slid from 12-5 to 11-6 with its title odds cut from 15.5 percent to 8.5. The defense that had allowed 53 points in four games has allowed 51 in two. Minnesota beat New Orleans, took its bye, is 5-0 having allowed 64 points, and moved from 9-8 to 10-7. The model still has the Vikings behind Detroit and Green Bay in the North.

Going the other way, Dallas lost at home to Tampa Bay as a 76 percent favorite and lost in Green Bay, is 2-4, and fell from 10-7 to 8-9. Philadelphia lost in Jacksonville and at home to Carolina, is 2-4, and has lost Jalen Hurts for the season to blood clots in his lungs; the Eagles project for 9-8 with the defense doing the work. Seattle lost to the 49ers and lost 17-14 in Denver, is 3-3, and fell from 10-7 to 7-10 with a 9.5 percent playoff chance, the largest drop of the fortnight. Sam Darnold has six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Indianapolis lost at home to Tennessee as an 82 percent favorite and is 2-4 at 6-10. The Chargers are 0-6, Justin Herbert has eight interceptions, and the model has Los Angeles at 3-14, down from 6-11.

The Rams, in full

The Rams are the story of this run and they deserve the whole paragraph. Los Angeles is 2-4 with losses to San Francisco, Denver, Buffalo and Arizona, three of them at home. The defense that projected second in points allowed in July has given up 138 points in six games and now projects 320, sixth. Stafford is 164 of 249 for 1,794 yards, eleven touchdowns and six interceptions at a 91.7 rating, and the model has trimmed his season line accordingly. Puka Nacua still projects for 1,544 yards and Kyren Williams for 1,058. The roster the model loved is still mostly on the field. It has lost four of six, and under the new weighting four of six counts for more than it did. The Rams project for 10-7, a 72 percent playoff chance, and win the NFC West in a minority of simulated years for the first time all season. The next month is Las Vegas on the road at 76 percent, the Chargers at home at 88, Washington on the road at 60 and Arizona at home at 82. The model expects the Rams to win all four. It also expected them to beat Arizona last week.

The quarterback list

Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve and will miss the rest of the season. Lamar Jackson has missed two games with the ankle and was limited in practice on Wednesday. Caleb Williams is back under center for Chicago. J.J. McCarthy is expected to make his first start for the Giants against Houston. Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice and is close to returning for Tampa Bay, which has won once in six with Jalon Daniels. Tyler Huntley has three appearances for Baltimore at a 100 rating. Kyler Murray has started four of Minnesota's five games. Michael Penix Jr. has started four for Atlanta at a 106 rating and the Falcons have lost the last two anyway.

What did not move

Cincinnati is 3-2 and holds at ten wins with Joe Burrow at a 104 rating. Denver is 4-2 and holds at nine with an offense that has scored 114 points in six games. Chicago is 4-2 and slid a win to nine after the 31-7 loss in Green Bay. Cleveland beat Baltimore and climbed a win to eight, still projected to finish last in a division it is tied for the lead of. The Giants are 3-2-1 and project for 6-10-1 with the quarterback change the model has not priced yet. Washington is at five, Tampa Bay and Tennessee at four and three after winning on the road as heavy underdogs, and Miami, 0-5, is at two and a half.

Go argue with it again

The method is what it was. The model prices the players on the field, what they have actually done, who is actually available, and the schedule ahead. What has changed is how quickly it believes what it is watching. Six weeks is enough football to tell you something about a team, and the projection now treats it that way: a starter's six weeks of 2026 carry about three times the weight of his 2025 season, and by the middle of November last year will not be in the calculation at all. The result is a league in which Detroit and Kansas City are the favorites, San Francisco leads the NFC West on merit rather than on record, and the Rams are a ten-win team that has to win its division before it can be the favorite in anything. If you think the model has overreacted to two bad Sundays in Los Angeles, the Raiders game this week is where you find out.

Start with the full 2026 league projection, standings and odds, then go find out what six weeks did to your team.