WAS @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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WAS Commanders
17
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
WAS54%17
TEN46%14
14
TEN Titans

Projected Team Stats

WAS
TEN
54% Win Probability 46%
305 Total Yards 258
207 Passing Yards 208
98 Rushing Yards 51
3.4 Sacks 2.5
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels215 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.3 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Stefon Diggs2.9 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward232 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard26 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.5 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.2 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Commanders by 3.8

The sim sides with Commanders: a 3.8-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (17-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 49% of their reps, mustering 7.0 sacks and 31.4 pressures a game — Odafe Oweh (3.8 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Titans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), John Franklin-Myers (1.5 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Terry McLaurin should find soft spots all day, open 56% of the time for 41 yds a game.
  • Carnell Tate is the engine of the Titans' passing game — 49 yds a game on 48% separation.
  • In coverage, Tony Adams (Titans) travels and erases — only 42% separation allowed with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt carries the load for the Commanders, 12 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Tony Pollard: 26 yds a game at 2.4 a carry for the Titans.

Model vs Market

WAS by 3.8 (54% to win) Projected total 31 pts Cam Ward ~232 pass yds (250+ 48%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~45 rush yds (70+ 16%) Carnell Tate ~73 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 56%)