WAS @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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WAS Commanders
15
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
WAS34%15
SF66%20
20
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
MARKET SF -7.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

WAS
SF
34% Win Probability 66%
259 Total Yards 331
165 Passing Yards 229
95 Rushing Yards 103
2.4 Sacks 3.8
1.0 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels193 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.2 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy233 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey58 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Mike Evans5.1 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Deebo Samuel3.3 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD

49ers by 5.2

Across 50 simulations, 49ers come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 5.2 (20-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 59% of routes for 6.7/8.4, 66 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The 49ers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 7.5 sacks a game (Nick Bosa (4.2 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Commanders — a 51% win rate yields only 5.4 sacks and 27.7 pressures a game, with Odafe Oweh (3.2 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans is the engine of the 49ers' passing game — 66 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • Look for Terry McLaurin to eat: 4.2 catches and 36 yds a game for the Commanders.
  • In coverage, Dre Greenlaw (49ers) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Christian McCaffrey sets the tempo for the 49ers — 58 yds a game on the ground at 3.8 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • The Commanders hand it to Jacory Croskey-Merritt early and often, 13 carries for 47 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -5.2
Market lineSF -7.5
Sim total35
Market total51.5
SF by 5.2 (66% to win) Projected total 35 pts Brock Purdy ~233 pass yds (250+ 36%) Christian McCaffrey ~58 rush yds (70+ 30%) Mike Evans ~79 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 56%)