WAS @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 10 slate
WAS Commanders
17
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
WAS50%17
NYG50%17
17
NYG Giants

Projected Team Stats

WAS
NYG
50% Win Probability 50%
303 Total Yards 311
193 Passing Yards 246
110 Rushing Yards 64
1.4 Sacks 3.3
1.0 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels212 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.3 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.5 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston252 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo39 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.9 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Malachi Fields3.1 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Giants by 0.1

Across 50 simulations, Giants come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 0.1 (17-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Brandon Coleman (Commanders) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 9.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 7.0 sacks a game, Abdul Carter (4.3 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Commanders — a 50% win rate, 2.9 sacks and 12.6 pressures a game, and Odafe Oweh (2.2 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Malik Nabers is the engine of the Giants' passing game — 72 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • Terry McLaurin should find soft spots all day, open 53% of the time for 47 yds a game.
  • Jevon Holland (Giants) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 41% of his coverage snaps with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Cam Skattebo sets the tempo for the Giants — 39 yds a game on the ground at 2.7 a carry into a stout front.
  • The Commanders hand it to Jacory Croskey-Merritt early and often, 14 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

NYG by 0.1 (50% to win) Projected total 34 pts Jameis Winston ~252 pass yds (250+ 52%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~52 rush yds (70+ 16%) Malik Nabers ~85 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 60%)