TEN @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TEN Titans
19
PROJECTION
TEN 7 – NYG 12
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
TEN46%19 7
NYG54%19 12
19
NYG Giants
✓ RESULT NYG by 5 model NYG by 0.7, off by 4.3
✗ SPREAD TEN +2.5 LOSS line at publish NYG -2.5
✓ TOTAL 19 pts UNDER O/U 39.5, model 38 lean under

Projected Team Stats

TEN
NYG
46% Win Probability 54%
307 Total Yards 294
216 Passing Yards 216
91 Rushing Yards 79
1.7 Sacks 3.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward235 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.8 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.0 rec, 49 yds, 0.1 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston225 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.5 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malachi Fields3.0 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

Giants by 0.7

The sim sides with Giants: a 0.7-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (19-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs John Michael Schmitz Jr. (Giants) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 2.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Giants may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.4 sacks a game, and Brian Burns (3.4 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Titans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.6 sacks a game), John Franklin-Myers (0.8 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Giants lean on Malik Nabers, good for 6.7 catches and 59 yds a game while breaking open on 51% of his routes.
  • Expect the Titans to feed Carnell Tate: 5.3 catches for 46 yds a game, open 49% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Marcus Harris (Titans): 41% separation allowed, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Giants' run game leans on Cam Skattebo — 14 carries, 49 yds a game (3.4 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • The Titans hand it to Tony Pollard early and often, 11 carries for 44 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYG -0.7
Market lineNYG -2.5
Sim total38
Market total39.5
NYG by 0.7 (54% to win) Projected total 38 pts Cam Ward ~235 pass yds (250+ 44%) Cam Skattebo ~49 rush yds (70+ 20%) Malik Nabers ~87 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 62%)