TEN @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TEN Titans
15
PROJECTION
TEN 26 – IND 20
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
TEN18%15 26
IND82%25 20
25
IND Colts
✗ RESULT TEN by 6 model IND by 9.9, off by 15.9
✗ SPREAD IND -7 LOSS line at publish IND -7
✗ TOTAL 46 pts OVER O/U 44, model 41 lean under

Projected Team Stats

TEN
IND
18% Win Probability 82%
287 Total Yards 364
213 Passing Yards 260
74 Rushing Yards 103
1.0 Sacks 3.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward236 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard34 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.8 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones249 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Josh Downs5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.9 rec, 58 yds, 0.4 TD

Colts by 9.9

Colts are the pick here, favoured by 9.9 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 25-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' line should hold up: the Colts win just 50% of their reps, mustering 6.9 sacks and 33.2 pressures a game, and JT Tuimoloau (2.6 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Titans — a 49% win rate yields only 2.5 sacks and 11.0 pressures a game, Jeffery Simmons (1.5 sacks, 1.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Josh Downs headlines the Colts' receiving corps — 6.6 catches for 58 yds a game on 54% separation.
  • Carnell Tate headlines the Titans' receiving corps — 5.4 catches for 46 yds a game on 47% separation.
  • Sauce Gardner (Colts) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 43% of his coverage snaps with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jonathan Taylor: 63 yds a game at 4.7 a carry for the Colts, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Titans ride Tony Pollard: 10 carries, 34 yds a game (3.3 a carry), finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -9.9
Market lineIND -7
Sim total41
Market total44
IND by 9.9 (82% to win) Projected total 41 pts Daniel Jones ~249 pass yds (250+ 48%) Jonathan Taylor ~63 rush yds (70+ 34%) Carnell Tate ~74 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 50%)