TEN @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
TEN Titans
11
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TEN12%11
HST88%26
26
HST Texans

Projected Team Stats

TEN
HST
12% Win Probability 88%
224 Total Yards 376
178 Passing Yards 297
46 Rushing Yards 79
2.0 Sacks 4.2
1.3 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward207 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard19 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.6 rec, 67 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.9 rec, 45 yds
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud277 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH David Montgomery37 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins5.5 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.4.0 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 14.9

The model leans Texans by 14.9, winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 26-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 58% of reps for 5.2 sacks and 12.1 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Jake Hansen (Texans) - winner: Jake Hansen, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Evan Brown (Texans) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 59% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 3.1 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: Alontae Taylor, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 62% of routes for 7.4/8.7, 82 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 8.5 sacks a game (Will Anderson Jr. (5.2 sacks, 12.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Titans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), John Franklin-Myers (1.2 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Nico Collins is the engine of the Texans' passing game — 82 yds a game on 62% separation.
  • Carnell Tate headlines the Titans' receiving corps — 5.5 catches for 40 yds a game on 42% separation.
  • In coverage, Jalen Pitre (Texans) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of David Montgomery: 37 yds a game at 3.2 a carry for the Texans, with his best work to the right side.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 10 carries, 19 yds a game (1.9 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

HST by 14.9 (88% to win) Projected total 36 pts C.J. Stroud ~277 pass yds (250+ 72%) Nico Collins ~90 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 68%)