TEN @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
TEN Titans
13
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TEN2%13
DET98%34
34
DET Lions

Projected Team Stats

TEN
DET
2% Win Probability 98%
264 Total Yards 436
219 Passing Yards 282
45 Rushing Yards 154
1.4 Sacks 3.5
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward243 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard22 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.7 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.5 rec, 53 yds, 0.1 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff253 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs98 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.1 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams3.9 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 21.1

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 21.1 and winning 98% of 50 sims (projected 34-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 7.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 4.7 sacks and 10.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Roger McCreary (Lions) - winner: Roger McCreary, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 60% of routes for 6.7/8.2, 61 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Tyleik Williams (Lions) vs Atonio Mafi (Titans) - winner: Tyleik Williams, winning 56% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 3.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Lions — a 51% win rate, 7.4 sacks and 33.5 pressures a game (Aidan Hutchinson (4.7 sacks, 10.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Titans win just 50% of reps for 3.0 sacks a game, led by Jeffery Simmons (2.0 sacks, 1.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Amon-Ra St. Brown to eat: 6.7 catches and 61 yds a game for the Lions.
  • Carnell Tate headlines the Titans' receiving corps — 5.9 catches for 51 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • Brian Branch (Lions) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 33% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions lean on Jahmyr Gibbs, 14 carries for 98 yds a game at 7.0 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • Tony Pollard sets the tempo for the Titans — 22 yds a game on the ground at 2.1 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

DET by 21.1 (98% to win) Projected total 47 pts Jared Goff ~253 pass yds (250+ 58%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~98 rush yds (70+ 68%) Carnell Tate ~78 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 50%)