TEN @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
TEN Titans
14
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TEN10%14
DAL90%27
27
DAL Cowboys

Projected Team Stats

TEN
DAL
10% Win Probability 90%
265 Total Yards 392
210 Passing Yards 287
56 Rushing Yards 105
2.3 Sacks 3.0
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward232 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard26 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Elic Ayomanor3.0 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott282 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams55 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.5 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens4.6 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD

Cowboys by 13.4

The model leans Cowboys by 13.4, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 27-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Malik Hooker (Cowboys) - winner: Malik Hooker, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 62% of routes for 8.1/9.6, 76 yds a game - open at will.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: George Pickens, open on 62% of routes for 5.8/6.9, 52 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cowboys — a 50% win rate, 6.1 sacks and 28.9 pressures a game (Rashan Gary (3.5 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Titans — a 51% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 18.3 pressures a game, led by John Franklin-Myers (1.4 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Cowboys will live and die with CeeDee Lamb, who comes open 62% of the time (76 yds a game).
  • The Titans lean on Carnell Tate, good for 4.4 catches and 39 yds a game while breaking open on 42% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys), who yields separation on 36% of routes, adding 1.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys' run game leans on Javonte Williams — 12 carries, 55 yds a game (4.5 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.
  • Tony Pollard is the workhorse for the Titans, churning 26 yds a game at 2.5 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

DAL by 13.4 (90% to win) Projected total 41 pts Dak Prescott ~282 pass yds (250+ 68%) Javonte Williams ~55 rush yds (70+ 22%) CeeDee Lamb ~81 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 52%)