TB @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
TB Buccaneers
22
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TB60%22
NO40%20
20
NO Saints

Projected Team Stats

TB
NO
60% Win Probability 40%
338 Total Yards 337
229 Passing Yards 283
109 Rushing Yards 54
2.2 Sacks 2.4
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield244 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.6 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Godwin5.4 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough296 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara22 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Olave7.6 rec, 109 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Devaughn Vele3.8 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD

Buccaneers by 1.9

Buccaneers are the pick here, favoured by 1.9 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 22-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Benjamin Morrison (Buccaneers) - winner: Benjamin Morrison, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 63% of routes for 9.7/12.0, 95 yds a game - open at will.
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad (Buccaneers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Al-Quadin Muhammad, winning 55% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), with Yaya Diaby (1.5 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Buccaneers' quarterback should have time; the Saints win just 48% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, Carl Granderson (1.7 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Look for Emeka Egbuka to eat: 4.8 catches and 42 yds a game for the Buccaneers.
  • Through the air it is Chris Olave's show for the Saints: 95 yds a game, open on 63% of routes.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Buccaneers ride Bucky Irving: 13 carries, 56 yds a game (4.2 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Saints ride Alvin Kamara: 9 carries, 22 yds a game (2.3 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

TB by 1.9 (60% to win) Projected total 43 pts Tyler Shough ~296 pass yds (250+ 78%) Bucky Irving ~56 rush yds (70+ 26%) Chris Olave ~109 rec yds, 7.6 rec (70+ 84%)