SF @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
17
PROJECTION
SF 32 – SEA 29
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
SF36%17 32
SEA64%21 29
21
SEA Seahawks
✗ RESULT SF by 3 model SEA by 3.6, off by 6.6
✗ SPREAD SEA -3 LOSS line at publish SEA -3
✗ TOTAL 61 pts OVER O/U 46.5, model 38 lean under

Projected Team Stats

SF
SEA
36% Win Probability 64%
303 Total Yards 312
206 Passing Yards 218
97 Rushing Yards 94
2.1 Sacks 3.0
1.4 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy226 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans4.6 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Kittle3.2 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold228 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson47 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.7 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.5 rec, 43 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 3.6

Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 3.6 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 21-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Connor Colby (49ers) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 56% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 9.5/11.1, 76 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.7 sacks a game), with DeMarcus Lawrence (2.0 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.4 sacks and 22.8 pressures a game (Nick Bosa (2.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks will live and die with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who comes open 64% of the time (76 yds a game).
  • The 49ers lean on Mike Evans, good for 5.3 catches and 45 yds a game while breaking open on 50% of his routes.
  • Fred Warner (49ers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 39% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Seahawks ride Emanuel Wilson: 14 carries, 47 yds a game (3.3 a carry), churning to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Christian McCaffrey: 53 yds a game at 3.4 a carry for the 49ers, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -3.6
Market lineSEA -3
Sim total38
Market total46.5
SEA by 3.6 (64% to win) Projected total 38 pts Sam Darnold ~228 pass yds (250+ 34%) Christian McCaffrey ~53 rush yds (70+ 18%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~84 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 66%)