SF @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
SF 49ers
21
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SF70%21
NYG30%14
14
NYG Giants

Projected Team Stats

SF
NYG
70% Win Probability 30%
357 Total Yards 277
241 Passing Yards 208
117 Rushing Yards 69
1.8 Sacks 3.2
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy249 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans5.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Deebo Samuel3.7 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston221 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo41 rush yds
REC Malik Nabers5.1 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Isaiah Likely3.7 rec, 44 yds, 0.4 TD

49ers by 6.8

Run it 50 times and 49ers win 70% of them, by 6.8 on average (21-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 61% of routes for 6.4/8.5, 68 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Malik Nabers (Giants) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Malik Nabers, open on 59% of routes for 6.8/9.4, 52 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 50% win rate yields only 3.4 sacks and 11.0 pressures a game, Nick Bosa (2.4 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The 49ers' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 6.0 sacks a game, with Abdul Carter (3.5 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans headlines the 49ers' receiving corps — 6.4 catches for 68 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • The Giants will live and die with Malik Nabers, who comes open 59% of the time (52 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Dre Greenlaw (49ers): 37% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the 49ers ride Christian McCaffrey: 16 carries, 62 yds a game (3.8 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.
  • Cam Skattebo is the workhorse for the Giants, churning 41 yds a game at 2.8 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

SF by 6.8 (70% to win) Projected total 35 pts Brock Purdy ~249 pass yds (250+ 58%) Christian McCaffrey ~62 rush yds (70+ 30%) Mike Evans ~85 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 68%)