SF @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
24
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SF48%24
DAL52%24
24
DAL Cowboys

Projected Team Stats

SF
DAL
48% Win Probability 52%
361 Total Yards 366
252 Passing Yards 270
108 Rushing Yards 95
2.3 Sacks 2.3
1.2 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.8 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Deebo Samuel3.5 rec, 43 yds, 0.3 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott278 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams53 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.6 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD

Cowboys by 0.7

Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 52% of the time by an average of 0.7 (24-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 55% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 8.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 65% of routes for 9.5/11.3, 81 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 18 yds on just 37% open, 0.2 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • The 49ers' line should hold up: the Cowboys win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.9 sacks and 27.1 pressures a game — Rashan Gary (2.6 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 51% win rate yields only 5.1 sacks and 20.6 pressures a game, with Nick Bosa (3.3 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Cowboys lean on CeeDee Lamb, good for 9.5 catches and 81 yds a game while breaking open on 65% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Mike Evans' show for the 49ers: 58 yds a game, open on 52% of routes.
  • Renardo Green (49ers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 34% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys' run game leans on Javonte Williams — 12 carries, 53 yds a game (4.4 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • The 49ers' run game leans on Christian McCaffrey — 16 carries, 65 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

DAL by 0.7 (52% to win) Projected total 48 pts Dak Prescott ~278 pass yds (250+ 68%) Christian McCaffrey ~65 rush yds (70+ 40%) CeeDee Lamb ~91 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 64%)