SF @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
23
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SF66%23
ARZ34%19
19
ARZ Cardinals

Projected Team Stats

SF
ARZ
66% Win Probability 34%
372 Total Yards 310
263 Passing Yards 249
109 Rushing Yards 61
2.3 Sacks 2.6
0.9 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy270 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.8 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Kittle3.6 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love25 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson7.8 rec, 98 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Trey McBride4.7 rec, 48 yds, 0.6 TD

49ers by 4.3

Across 50 simulations, 49ers come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 4.3 (23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 59% of routes for 5.4/8.0, 55 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals' quarterback should have time; the 49ers win just 51% of reps for 4.7 sacks a game, led by Nick Bosa (3.5 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game).
  • The Cardinals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.4 sacks a game, and Josh Sweat (2.9 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The 49ers will live and die with Mike Evans, who comes open 59% of the time (55 yds a game).
  • The Cardinals lean on Michael Wilson, good for 11.3 catches and 87 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • Dre Greenlaw (49ers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 41% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The 49ers lean on Christian McCaffrey, 16 carries for 61 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Jeremiyah Love carries the load for the Cardinals, 9 carries for 25 yds a game at 2.8 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

SF by 4.3 (66% to win) Projected total 42 pts Brock Purdy ~270 pass yds (250+ 58%) Christian McCaffrey ~61 rush yds (70+ 28%) Michael Wilson ~98 rec yds, 7.8 rec (70+ 68%)