SEA @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
26
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SEA72%26
LV28%18
18
LV Raiders

Projected Team Stats

SEA
LV
72% Win Probability 28%
381 Total Yards 305
275 Passing Yards 229
106 Rushing Yards 76
1.5 Sacks 2.0
1.1 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold272 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.5 rec, 116 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins234 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.3 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.2 rec, 47 yds, 0.5 TD

Seahawks by 7.6

Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 7.6 (26-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Tyrice Knight, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 57% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 1.7 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 62% of routes for 8.7/11.4, 97 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 49% win rate yields only 3.4 sacks and 11.6 pressures a game, with Byron Murphy II (2.2 sacks, 1.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Raiders get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), led by Maxx Crosby (3.2 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks' aerial attack runs through Jaxon Smith-Njigba (97 yds a game, open on 62% of routes).
  • Through the air it is Tre Tucker's show for the Raiders: 49 yds a game, open on 40% of routes.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 35% of routes, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Emanuel Wilson: 51 yds a game at 3.4 a carry for the Seahawks, churning off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Raiders ride Ashton Jeanty: 14 carries, 44 yds a game (3.1 a carry), with his best work off the right edge against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

SEA by 7.6 (72% to win) Projected total 44 pts Sam Darnold ~272 pass yds (250+ 62%) Emanuel Wilson ~51 rush yds (70+ 14%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~116 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 88%)