SEA @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
SEA Seahawks
21
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SEA52%21
CAR48%19
19
CAR Panthers

Projected Team Stats

SEA
CAR
52% Win Probability 48%
326 Total Yards 302
231 Passing Yards 227
95 Rushing Yards 75
3.1 Sacks 2.1
1.3 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold236 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson46 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.0 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.1 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young246 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard40 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.2 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 2.1

The model leans Seahawks by 2.1, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Akayleb Evans (Panthers) - winner: Akayleb Evans, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Tyrice Knight, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Jaycee Horn (Panthers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 61% of routes for 7.4/10.3, 63 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Seahawks — a 51% win rate, 5.9 sacks and 26.4 pressures a game (DeMarcus Lawrence (2.2 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Panthers — a 49% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 23.4 pressures a game, led by Jaelan Phillips (2.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks' aerial attack runs through Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63 yds a game, open on 61% of routes).
  • Look for Tetairoa McMillan to eat: 7.5 catches and 57 yds a game for the Panthers.
  • Julian Love (Seahawks) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 35% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Emanuel Wilson is the workhorse for the Seahawks, churning 46 yds a game at 3.1 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge against a stingy front.
  • Chuba Hubbard carries the load for the Panthers, 13 carries for 40 yds a game at 3.1 a carry, doing his damage to the right side with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

SEA by 2.1 (52% to win) Projected total 40 pts Bryce Young ~246 pass yds (250+ 46%) Emanuel Wilson ~46 rush yds (70+ 10%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~84 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 56%)