SEA @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
22
PROJECTION
SEA 31 – ARZ 7
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
SEA72%22 31
ARZ28%17 7
17
ARZ Cardinals
✓ RESULT SEA by 24 model SEA by 5.6, off by 18.4
✓ SPREAD SEA -4.5 WIN line at publish SEA -4.5
✓ TOTAL 38 pts UNDER O/U 41, model 39 lean under

Projected Team Stats

SEA
ARZ
72% Win Probability 28%
363 Total Yards 319
262 Passing Yards 239
101 Rushing Yards 81
3.1 Sacks 1.8
1.4 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold268 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jadarian Price53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.0 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.4 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett257 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.5 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 5.6

Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 5.6 (22-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Julian Love (Seahawks) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 4.7 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Will Johnson (Cardinals) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 6.9/8.5, 63 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 48% of reps (6.1 sacks a game), with DeMarcus Lawrence (1.9 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Cardinals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.8 sacks a game — Josh Sweat (2.7 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Seahawks to feed Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6.9 catches for 63 yds a game, open 63% of the time.
  • Expect the Cardinals to feed Marvin Harrison Jr.: 5.8 catches for 40 yds a game, open 40% of the time.
  • On the back end, Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 35% of routes, good for 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Seahawks ride Jadarian Price: 15 carries, 53 yds a game (3.5 a carry), finding room to the right side.
  • The Cardinals hand it to Jeremiyah Love early and often, 9 carries for 44 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -5.6
Market lineSEA -4.5
Sim total39
Market total41
SEA by 5.6 (72% to win) Projected total 39 pts Sam Darnold ~268 pass yds (250+ 58%) Jadarian Price ~53 rush yds (70+ 18%) Marvin Harrison Jr. ~72 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 50%)