PIT @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 11 slate
PIT Steelers
22
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PIT68%22
PHI32%17
17
PHI Eagles

Projected Team Stats

PIT
PHI
68% Win Probability 32%
375 Total Yards 270
229 Passing Yards 192
146 Rushing Yards 78
3.6 Sacks 2.1
1.1 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers234 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren111 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.3 rec, 40 yds
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts215 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley38 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.6 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.5 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 5.4

Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 5.4 (22-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 8.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 33 yds on just 40% open, 1.0 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles' quarterback should have time; the Steelers win just 50% of reps for 7.0 sacks a game, led by T.J. Watt (2.5 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game).
  • The Steelers' line should hold up: the Eagles win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.9 sacks and 13.9 pressures a game (Jonathan Greenard (3.1 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • D.K. Metcalf is the go-to for the Steelers, separating on 40% of routes for 33 yds a game.
  • The Eagles will live and die with DeVonta Smith, who comes open 54% of the time (55 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) travels and erases — only 32% separation allowed, good for 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 13 carries for 111 yds a game at 8.8 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Eagles' run game leans on Saquon Barkley — 10 carries, 38 yds a game (3.7 a carry), finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

PIT by 5.4 (68% to win) Projected total 39 pts Aaron Rodgers ~234 pass yds (250+ 40%) Jaylen Warren ~111 rush yds (70+ 74%) D.K. Metcalf ~69 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 34%)