PHI @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
24
PROJECTION
PHI 24 – TEN 20
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
PHI90%24 24
TEN10%10 20
10
TEN Titans
✓ RESULT PHI by 4 model PHI by 14.0, off by 10.0
✗ VALUE PHI -7 LOSS line at publish PHI -7
✗ TOTAL 44 pts OVER O/U 39.5, model 33 lean under

Projected Team Stats

PHI
TEN
90% Win Probability 10%
347 Total Yards 213
203 Passing Yards 149
144 Rushing Yards 65
4.2 Sacks 2.4
0.9 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts207 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.0 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks2.7 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward181 pass yds, 0.4 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard33 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.3 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.6 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD

Eagles by 14.0

The model leans Eagles by 14.0, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 24-10).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 28 yds on just 33% open, 1.3 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Cedric Gray (Titans) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 5.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' quarterback should have time; the Eagles win just 50% of reps for 7.5 sacks a game, Jonathan Greenard (4.5 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Eagles' line should hold up: the Titans win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.4 sacks and 22.1 pressures a game, and John Franklin-Myers (1.4 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Eagles will live and die with DeVonta Smith, who comes open 58% of the time (56 yds a game).
  • The Titans lean on Carnell Tate, good for 5.0 catches and 28 yds a game while breaking open on 33% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Zack Baun (Eagles): 31% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley carries the load for the Eagles, 12 carries for 70 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 9 carries, 33 yds a game (3.7 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -14.0
Market linePHI -7
Sim total33
Market total39.5
PHI by 14.0 (90% to win) Projected total 33 pts Jalen Hurts ~207 pass yds (250+ 24%) Saquon Barkley ~70 rush yds (70+ 44%) DeVonta Smith ~70 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 50%)