PHI @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
15
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PHI40%15
SF60%18
18
SF 49ers

Projected Team Stats

PHI
SF
40% Win Probability 60%
261 Total Yards 308
176 Passing Yards 202
85 Rushing Yards 105
3.1 Sacks 3.1
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts194 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley42 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.3 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dallas Goedert3.3 rec, 38 yds, 0.3 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy218 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Kittle3.3 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

49ers by 2.7

The model leans 49ers by 2.7, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 18-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 50% win rate yields only 6.8 sacks and 26.9 pressures a game, Nick Bosa (3.6 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Eagles — a 51% win rate, 6.6 sacks and 30.5 pressures a game — Jonathan Greenard (3.5 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 54% of routes for 51 yds a game.
  • Expect the Eagles to feed DeVonta Smith: 4.9 catches for 45 yds a game, open 60% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Dre Greenlaw (49ers): 35% separation allowed, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Christian McCaffrey: 59 yds a game at 3.8 a carry for the 49ers, finding room to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Eagles ride Saquon Barkley: 11 carries, 42 yds a game (3.7 a carry), churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

SF by 2.7 (60% to win) Projected total 33 pts Brock Purdy ~218 pass yds (250+ 24%) Christian McCaffrey ~59 rush yds (70+ 32%) DeVonta Smith ~60 rec yds, 4.3 rec (70+ 42%)